Could Trump's allies push Netanyahu into unity gov't without his far-right partners? - analysis

Voices within US President Donald Trump's inner circle are advocating for the establishment of a broad and moderate Israeli unity government without National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, with some even floating the idea of a rotation agreement in which Benjamin Netanyahu would serve as prime minister first.

However, Yashar party chairman Gadi Eisenkot and former prime minister Naftali Bennett remain opposed to serving under him, and American officials have yet to discuss the framework with them.

American billionaire Bill Ackman, a prominent supporter of Trump with close ties to his circle, publicly called on Sunday for the formation of a broad, moderate Israeli government that excludes Ben-Gvir and Smotrich.

In a social media post, Ackman argued that such a government would allow Israel to restore its international standing, expand the Abraham Accords, and improve relations with both major political parties in the United States.

Ackman, who heads the hedge fund Pershing Square, supported Trump in the presidential election and is considered an influential figure in US political and business circles. He criticized Ben-Gvir and Smotrich, stating that their presence harms Israel's global image and its ability to advance key diplomatic objectives. At the same time, he praised Netanyahu and his relationship with Trump. Ackman favors Netanyahu remaining in office, but with a different set of coalition partners.

Realizing Trump's Middle East ambitions requires a change in Israel's Knesset

Ackman is not the only figure in Trump's orbit holding this view. According to several sources, additional figures in Washington believe that over the remaining two years of the president's term, realizing his ambitious Middle East plans requires a change in the composition of Israel's government.

Foremost among these plans is the possibility of a historic normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia, a prospect difficult to envision advancing while Ben-Gvir and Smotrich sit at the cabinet table.

Several senior advisors to Trump believe an Israeli government without Netanyahu's far-right partners would make it significantly easier to advance the president's regional policy.

This comes amid existing friction between Washington and Jerusalem: Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are reportedly frustrated by the pace at which Netanyahu is advancing Trump's plan for Gaza; Special Envoy Tom Barrick disagrees with Israel's strategy regarding Syria; and officials around Secretary of State Marco Rubio seek to strengthen the Lebanese government while expressing frustration over insufficient action regarding Jewish violence in Judea and Samaria.

These officials place high importance on the composition of Israel's next government, which could impact Trump's chances of achieving major diplomatic breakthroughs before his term ends. A deal with Saudi Arabia, for instance, requires difficult Israeli decisions on the Palestinian issue and other regional matters.

A government reliant on Ben-Gvir and Smotrich could struggle to make such choices, even if Netanyahu himself were willing to do so. However, replacing coalition partners alone does not guarantee a deal: Riyadh maintains its own political demands, including tangible progress on the Palestinian issue.

Trump's inner circles question viability of diplomacy with Netanyahu around

Some within Trump's circle even question whether a diplomatic breakthrough is achievable as long as Netanyahu serves as prime minister. Consequently, an idea has emerged within the president's team for a rotation-based unity government: Netanyahu would serve during the first year, after which another prime minister would replace him to lead negotiations with the Saudis before the conclusion of Trump's term.

Proponents of the idea believe this arrangement would maintain governance continuity in the first year while entrusting regional diplomatic efforts to a prime minister who is not dependent on Netanyahu's current partners. According to several Israeli and American sources, Netanyahu told Trump he wants to form a unity government and will work toward that goal after the election.

Israel's Ambassador to the US, Yechiel Leiter, also publicly said Netanyahu wants a broad government. Leiter said Netanyahu prefers a national unity government over continuing with the current coalition makeup.

He also addressed Ben-Gvir's future, saying Netanyahu made it clear he would not serve as national security minister again. The comments drew a sharp reaction from Otzma Yehudit, whose officials fear Netanyahu is paving the way for a coalition with Eisenkot at the expense of his current partners. For his part, Ben-Gvir called on Netanyahu to form a right-wing government rather than one with Eisenkot.

Although the idea originated in his inner circle, Trump has not formally endorsed the initiative. The president publicly backed Netanyahu on October 18, even as several advisors expressed reservations. Vice President JD Vance did not join the public endorsement.

Furthermore, US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee explicitly denied allegations of an American effort to push a unity government, clarifying that the administration does not intervene in Israeli elections or dictate actions to the prime minister.

Meanwhile, the proposals discussed in Washington remain far removed from Israel's political reality. American officials have not conducted a deep feasibility check with leaders of the change bloc, and no substantive talks have taken place with Eisenkot or other senior figures in the opposition regarding the proposed framework. Electoral scenarios also present obstacles for the initiative.

If Netanyahu's bloc secures 61 mandates, he is expected to receive the mandate to form a government, but it remains doubtful whether Eisenkot or Bennett would agree to join. Additionally, ultra-Orthodox parties demand the passage of the conscription bill as a precondition for coalition talks. Conversely, if the right-wing bloc fails to secure a majority, Netanyahu may not get the first chance to form a government.

Even in the event of a victory for the right-wing bloc, Netanyahu could find himself in a trap: his natural partners will demand the fulfillment of previous commitments, primarily the ultra-Orthodox demands regarding military draft legislation.

Reaching out to Eisenkot and Bennett would require offering them a partnership in a government they have pledged not to join. Even within the right-wing bloc, few believe Eisenkot or Bennett would consent to such a move.