2027: AbdulRazaq, Mustapha in Kwara Central showdown

ILORIN-The 2027 general elections in Kwara State are shaping up as a fierce political battle, with outgoing Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq set to face incumbent Senator Salihu Mustapha in the contest for Kwara Central Senatorial District, while a series of candidate replacements on the All Progressives Congress, APC, ticket has altered the race for the National Assembly.

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The Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC’s final list of candidates has thrown up a high-stakes contest that could determine whether AbdulRazaq, who chairs the Nigeria Governors’ Forum, NGF, retains his grip on Kwara politics or faces a serious challenge from rival political camps.

Mustapha, who represents Kwara Central in the Senate, left the APC after the bitter primaries and  defected to the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP and will now battle the governor, who is the APC senatorial candidate, in a contest that pits two prominent political figures against each other.

The governorship race is equally significant, with the APC candidate, incumbent Speaker of the Kwara State House of Assembly, Salihu-Yakubu Danladi, facing PDP candidate, Kawu Bolakale Agaka, a former Senate President Bukola Saraki-backed contender.

Danladi is paired with Ogunniyi David Oluwaseun as his running mate, while Agaka’s running mate is Fawenu Cornelius Olaosebikan Sunday.

The outcome could test AbdulRazaq’s political influence amid tensions surrounding the emergence of candidates for the ruling party’s various elective positions.

Other governorship candidates on INEC’s final list include Abdulmumim Yinka Ajia Olayinka of the Nigeria Democratic Congress, NDC, with Ajayi Israel Awolowo as his running mate, and former House of Representatives member Zakareh Mohammed of the African Democratic Congress,ADC, whose running mate is Olawuyi Julius Olayide.

APC drops serving lawmakers

Beyond the governorship contest,  APC’s final National Assembly ticket has revealed major changes, with two serving senators and several House of Representatives members missing from the list.

In Kwara South, Deputy Senate Leader and APC senatorial candidate, Senator Oyelola Ashiru, has been replaced by Adewoye Olalekan.

Similarly, Senator Sadiq Suleiman Umar, who represents Kwara North and is seeking another term after two terms in the Senate, has been replaced by Alhaji Kolo Baba Jiya.

Jiya, a businessman and philanthropist, previously contested a senatorial election on the platform of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP).

The changes also affect the House of Representatives, where the APC has dropped Mohammed Omar Bio, who represents Baruten/Kaiama Federal Constituency. Saidu Baba Ahmed has emerged as the party’s candidate for the constituency.

In Edu/Moro/Patigi Federal Constituency, Mohammed Mamman, also known as Mamman Mohammed Tswako, has replaced the incumbent, Dr Ahmed Adamu Saba, on the APC ticket.

The substitutions have introduced fresh uncertainties into the contests, particularly in constituencies where incumbent lawmakers would ordinarily be expected to seek re-election.

Test of political strength

The emerging contests place AbdulRazaq and Saraki-backed forces on opposite sides of a consequential political struggle, with the APC seeking to consolidate its position while the PDP and other parties look to exploit divisions within the ruling party.

For AbdulRazaq, the Kwara Central senatorial contest and the governorship election will be crucial tests of his political standing as he prepares to leave office.

For Saraki, Agaka’s performance could indicate whether his political machinery can regain ground in the state after years of rivalry with the incumbent governor.

The National Assembly changes also mean that several constituencies will witness contests involving new candidates, rather than straightforward battles between incumbents and challengers.

Ultimately, the elections will test the strength of the competing political structures, the appeal of their candidates and the ability of rival camps to translate internal party disagreements into electoral advantage.