Hezbollah shifts to guerrilla warfare, drone strikes as terror group prepares for prolonged war

Hezbollah has continued to invest in its recovery and adapt its strategy for what it anticipates could be a prolonged, low-intensity war with Israel, according to the latest assessment by the Alma Research and Education Center, published on Sunday.

Based on incidents recorded over the past several months, the center assessed that Hezbollah could increasingly turn toward guerrilla warfare, including small-scale infiltrations into the security zone and potentially Israeli territory, as well as drone and explosive attacks.

The group’s ability to carry out its previous plans to seize the Galilee has been significantly diminished by the destruction of its infrastructure and the continued presence of the IDF in southern Lebanon, the center assessed. However, Hezbollah is still likely to attempt to operate within the security zone.

Given the limited scope of such operations, Hezbollah infiltration attempts would likely be thwarted, according to the center. However, the attempts themselves could indicate that the group is seeking to identify vulnerabilities that could later be exploited.

The center noted that, given Hezbollah’s extensive underground infrastructure and the area’s dense terrain, operatives could still be hiding within the security zone. Some may be cut off from their command networks, but their continued presence could still pose a threat to IDF personnel through planted explosives or other attacks.

Hezbollah continues to operate above and underground

The IDF has encountered several individual Hezbollah operatives in the area over the past several months, which the center said supports the possibility of a continued Hezbollah presence.

Hezbollah’s underground and above-ground infrastructure, often embedded in civilian areas, is also frequently booby-trapped, making the task of locating and destroying these networks particularly dangerous.

A shortage of skilled operators is preventing Hezbollah from fully utilizing its arsenal of first-person-view (FPV) drones, low-cost unmanned aerial vehicles with a range of up to 60 kilometers that have been used in recent months to target Iron Dome batteries and other Israeli assets and personnel. The shortage of trained operators, however, has not prevented Hezbollah from making FPV and other drones core components of its strategy, according to the center. Hezbollah has also increased the pace at which it is training operatives to use the technology.

Estimated 15,000 rockets, 40,000 active operatives

Though Hezbollah appears to be moving away from the use of precision-guided missiles, cruise missiles and shore-to-sea missiles due to their assessed poor cost-benefit ratio, the center estimated that the group could still possess as many as 15,000 rockets. Alma further estimated that Hezbollah has fewer than 40,000 regular operatives remaining, while retaining tens of thousands of reservists.

At the same time, efforts to reduce Iranian influence in Lebanon have not succeeded in completely removing the IRGC’s presence, according to Alma. The center claimed that members of the IRGC’s Quds Force Lebanon Corps continue to operate in Beirut and the Beqaa Valley.

Iran has also continued to smuggle resources to Hezbollah, though it has been forced to become more creative in its attempts since the fall of the Assad regime, the center continued. Last month, Iran allegedly attempted to send weapons to Hezbollah in a fuel truck through the al-Tanf crossing.

The center claimed that its research had identified smuggling attempts on a near-weekly basis, though it remains unclear how many of these attempts are successful. Syria, it reported, continues to serve as a logistical area for the transfer of weapons to Lebanon.