Is the 2027 budget Anwar’s last?

The political backdrop was impossible to ignore as Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim presented the 2027 budget.

With the next general elections (GE16) looming in a matter of months, most observers expected a flashier, election-winning plan aimed squarely at capturing votes highlighting the gains of Ekonomi Madani.

Instead, the 2027 budget arrived as a steady, work-a-day, “civil service” budget lacking a dramatic “wow factor”.

Choosing fiscal stability over electoral fireworks is a missed opportunity for a government seeking a renewed mandate but the reality is more nuanced. The complex political landscape of the unity government means a pragmatic, steady-as-she-goes approach was likely the only option Anwar had available.

On paper, the economic fundamentals driving the budget appear robust. Driven by strong macroeconomic growth of 5.7% in the first half of the year, record trade performance and rising investments including RM132 billion in the Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone, Anwar had room to manoeuvre.

Instead, the budget attempts to continue the dual ambition of “raising the ceiling” and “lifting the floor”.

The minimum wage rises to RM2,000, but only in eight months’ time. The higher RM2,500 benchmark for entry-level graduate positions will benefit a few but not many.

Sumbangan Tunai Rahmah (STR) and Sumbangan Asas Rahmah (SARA) was raised a little for its nine million core recipients and SARA-untuk-Semua was institutionalised with a tiny RM100 twice-yearly credit to the M40.

Meanwhile, civil servants on whom Anwar relies for what remains of his current term of office were given their share as usual. The general public on whom he relies for his next term of office were left wanting.

Higher personal income tax reliefs were finally announced but primarily benefit middle-to-higher income earners rather than lower-income households.

Notably absent was any reinstatement of the goods and services tax (GST), despite calls from business for structural tax reforms like indexed reliefs or alternative electronic payment taxes (EPTs).

Administrative fixes including resolving longstanding contract doctor issues with permanent appointments, launching the MediAsas coverage initiative help in the healthcare sector but there were no big reforms on elderly care.

Directing domestic investment through GLICs into sectors like semiconductors and AI infrastructure is a continuation of existing policies and not a new departure.

For everyday voters looking for immediate relief, the budget may feel underwhelming. The minimum wage increase, while positive, includes exemptions for micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) and the delayed implementation timeline leaves many low-wage workers feeling overlooked.

Meanwhile, fiscal consolidation metrics such as improved debt and deficit ratios are largely driven by higher GDP growth rather than structural spending cuts in borrowing.

In comparison to bolder shadow budgets and economic reform agendas which advocate for broad universal basic pensions, or expanded progressive wage schemes, this budget takes a conservative path. It held back from sweeping structural overhauls or aggressive handouts.

So, a big question is why did Anwar choose prudence over populism on the eve of an election? The answer lies in coalitional arithmetic.

Anwar leads a multi-coalition government where key partners hold significant leverage.

In the run-up to GE16, coalition allies are cautious about allowing the prime minister to deploy massive, popular pre-election handouts that could boost his popularity at their collective expense in contested seats.

Barisan Nasional does not want Anwar taking credit ahead of the election.

Consequently, the budget is a compromise. An administrative, predictable roadmap managed by fiscal conservatism.

It reassures markets and international investors while keeping the coalition intact.

It may not guarantee an electoral landslide but in the volatile arena of Malaysian politics, a steady hand on the wheel may well be the most realistic strategy Anwar could deploy.

The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of FMT.

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