Burnham’s support for the Saudis is all about Trump, experts say

Britain is “leading from behind” with its offer of support to Saudi Arabia in a move intended to reset fraught relations with Donald Trump, analysts have said.

The United Kingdom is set to deploy an RAF Voyager military plane to help refuel Saudi fighter jets, it emerged this week after Yemeni Houthi rebels escalated attacks on Saudi infrastructure, threatening to drive up energy prices even further.

The Houthis have driven a lightning offensive to the Red Sea coast and into Yemen’s strategic heights as part of a push for control of the Bab el-Mandeb shipping route, through which the world’s largest oil exporter has moved oil since Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz.

Andreas Krieg, associate professor in security studies at King’s College London, told The Independent that Britain was both protecting its own interests and reassuring an key ally in the region as confidence in US security guarantees wanes.

“Britain is almost leading from behind. It is not trying to own the conflict, but it is demonstrating that it is prepared to support partners when their security is genuinely threatened,” he said.

Philip Ingram MBE, a former senior British military intelligence officer, said the gesture was “first and foremost a reset with Donald Trump” as British prime minister Andy Burnham travelled to New York to discuss the war in Iran with the US president.

He said the refuelling jet would help the Saudis but not make a huge difference on the ground. It would however, allow the new prime minister to arrive for his first face-to-face meeting with the president with a clear vow of support.

President Trump said after their meeting on Tuesday that the relationship with the UK was “more up” since Burnham replaced Sir Keir Starmer, who he accused of not doing enough to support the US war with Iran.

“It’s a little performative from that perspective. Performative with larger political implications to communicate from a positive perspective,” said Col. Ingram, cautioning that Trump still ultimately wants the UK to “step up” as a leading Nato contributor again.

The message will still be well received in Riyadh, assessed Dr Krieg, after weeks of frustration around the “gap” between international expressions of solidarity and actual military assistance.

The United States has reportedly offered its ally intelligence sharing but stopped short of pledging actual military assistance, still bound by a ceasefire agreed with the Houthis last year.

Saudi Arabia will also be frustrated by the lack of response from Turkey and Pakistan, with which it signed a mutual defence agreement - the ‘Mecca Agreement’ - in August.

Dr Krieg said Britain knows it cannot afford serious Saudi destabilisation and is acting to protect infrastructure, airspace and maritime routes that connect “directly to economic security and prosperity in Britain”, without escalating the risk of a wider war.

Earlier this year, Britain deployed its Sky Sabre air ​defence system to ​Saudi Arabia to ⁠help protect it from Iranian missile attacks during the US-Israeli conflict with Iran.

The Voyager will now act as a “force multiplier”, allowing aircraft to remain airborne for longer, maintaining patrols and improving their ability to respond to aerial threats, he said.

Christopher Bergs, research analyst for airpower at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), said the Voyager is only equipped with a drogue for air-to-air refuelling, which means it will only be able to refuel Typhoons and Tornados.

They make up around a third of Saudi Arabia’s fighting force in the air.

“By sending an RAF Voyager, the UK government supports Saudi Arabian efforts against the Houthis but keeps its options open for the future,” he said.

“It balances Saudi Arabia’s call for assistance following previous deployment of Sky Sabre and renewed Houthi strikes without immediately returning to the UK-US strikes on Houthi positions in 2024-2025.”

The real value of UK support will come in the shape of high-value capabilities, like refueling aircraft, as well as intelligence, air defence support, logistics and diplomacy at critical moments, said Dr Krieg.

He stressed that the UK has no interest in joining another large-scale Yemen war, and is also working with Oman to explore diplomatic off-ramps from the current situation; the plane, therefore, sits “alongside” diplomacy, rather than replacing it.

Washington meanwhile is still caught between its commitments to its Gulf ally and wanting to uphold the ceasefire with the Houthis, which followed US-UK airstrikes against the Houthis in response to attacks on ships in the Red Sea.

But the Houthis only appear emboldened to escalate while able to draw a line between American and Saudi interests, isolating Riyadh from its allies.

“That is probably the most important American contribution now: broaden the definition of what is being protected without widening the war,” Dr Krieg said.

“The strategic problem is that if this does not happen, Mohammed bin Salman may eventually conclude that Saudi Arabia has to restore deterrence itself. That is where the risk of a much larger Saudi campaign in Yemen begins to rise.

“Britain is effectively trying to prevent that outcome by strengthening Saudi defensive resilience while keeping the diplomatic door open.”