Joel Kotkin: The generational war has begun in France

Young people, at least a portion of them, are on the offensive, with mass protests spreading from Paris and Milan to Katmandu New Delhi and Sri Lanka. A generational war has begun, and its consequences, including for North America, could be devastating.

Sign In or Create an Account

Although conditions differ by country, the spark behind these protests lies in both the real and the fitfully imagined: high housing prices, food inflation, lack of good jobs and failing education systems are not figments of their imaginations. At the same time, cries of poverty seem a bit overwrought for a generation that enjoys the most wealth in history and, in the West at least, their protest seems to stem from being raised to think they were special, only to find out that the world is not such a welcoming place.

The new generational war is fueled by a deep pessimism among those under 40 about the future. This, noted a 2022 Pew study, is particularly marked in Japan, France and Italy, with majorities of adult parents seeing a bleaker future for the next generation by more than three to one. The United States also does poorly with 72 per cent, while Canada does even worse, clocking in at 75 per cent.

Columnist Jesse Kline keeps you up to date with what’s happening in Israel and the effects of antisemitism on life here in Canada. Friday mornings.

By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc.

A welcome email is on its way. If you don't see it, please check your junk folder.

The next issue of Channel Israel will soon be in your inbox.

We encountered an issue signing you up. Please try again

The kindling for the current protests appears to lie with premonitions about their chances of enjoying anything like the success and security of their parents. These concerns feed a radicalization that is spreading worldwide and could undermine the last remnants of liberal democracy.

Indeed, according to Statistics Canada, hope about the future declined among Canadians aged 15 to 29 by about 15 percentage points in just five years between 2016 to 2021/2022. The percentage of young adults who were highly satisfied with their lives also declined.

For many, housing defines the divergence between the generations. Younger people are already way behind their parents in terms of buying a home in virtually every country. The discrepancy is particularly stark in parts of the United States, Australia and Canada, all countries with ample land and abundant natural resources. According to U.S. Census Bureau data, the rate of homeownership among young adults aged 25–34 was 45.4 per cent for generation X, but has dropped to 37 per cent for millennials, the generation now entering family formation years.

Much the same can be seen in Canada. Millennials, notes Statistics Canada, had a lower rate of homeownership in 2021 (49.9 per cent) than their gen-X counterparts in 2006 (56.2 per cent) and baby boomer counterparts in 1991 (55.9 per cent). In Toronto, notes the Hub, the proportion of young homeowners in a single-detached home fell from 32.7 per cent in 1991 to 19.4 per cent in 2021. In Vancouver, it dropped from 36.3 per cent to just 12.2 per cent.

Many millennials, some of whom are well into their 30’s, are simply failing to launch as true independent adults. In 2021, 16.3 percent of Millennials aged 25 to 39 were living with their parents, roughly double the 8.2 percent recorded for Baby Boomers at the same age in 1991. This is particularly evident in ultra-expensive Toronto and Vancouver, where the percentage failing to launch has doubled since the 1990s.

Some of this can be traced to government policies that seek to limit suburban development, as illustrated by demographer Wendell Cox’s recent housing affordability study. “There’s a whole generation being left behind,” Hamilton, Ont., builder Dave Knight told me. “Unless you come from a family with money, you have it tough.”

Equally critical, young people, particularly in the high-income countries, fear the rise of artificial intelligence and robots. In the U.S., notes Pew, 73 per cent of people under 30 think artificial intelligence (AI) means fewer jobs in the future. The percentage who are more concerned than excited about its increased use in their daily lives has almost doubled since 2021.

Similarly, in Canada, where, the percentage of young people 18 to 34 who fear AI’s impact is roughly the same at 69 per cent. Many younger Canadian workers, particularly college graduates, believe AI will affect their long-term career opportunities.

Young people have reason to be worried. As of March, unemployment among Canadians aged 15-24 hit 13.8 per cent, according to Statistics Canada, essentially double the overall rate that month of 6.7 per cent. An August report released by Toronto-Dominion Bank suggested this reflected in particular a decline in jobs often occupied by youth in accommodation, food services and retail trade.

Yet, not all the current youth angst can be traced to housing or AI. There are also considerable cultural factors, largely in how young people are being educated. In the U.S., as in Canada, left-leaning agitation appears to be part of the agenda, often pushed by teachers’ unions.

The impacts of this miseducation are clear. Among Canadians under 35, 48 per cent of males and 40 per cent of females, were proud of their nationality, noted a 2024 Angus Reid study. In contrast, when it came to those aged 55 and over, 68 per cent of men and 71 per cent of women considered themselves proud Canadians.

This follows a pattern seen throughout the higher-income world. Patriotism has declined in the U.S.,  Even in the U.S., with its long-standing and deeply entrenched sense of national pride, there’s a similar decline, again concentrated among the young.

Equally troubling, many young people have also lost faith in the economic system, sparking a global resurgence of support for socialism. These conditions are ideal for the rising socialist movement. As the old German theorist Karl Marx would have expected, if the young feel their futures constrained, it undermines faith in the market system. According to a Campus Reform poll, 62 per cent of Americans under 30 have a positive view of socialism, while 34 per cent now back the more authoritarian communist alternative.

Canada, which is further down this road, may get there faster.

Despite concerns expressed in publications like Macleans about a youthful drift to the far-right, a 2023 Fraser Institute poll, found that half of those aged 18 to 24 support socialism, far more, for example than boomers, where support for the collectivism drops to 38 per cent. What kind of socialism remains up in the air, since only a quarter of respondents defined socialism by its traditional standard — owning the means of production.

The socialism we are likely to see emerge in North America may be less Stalin and more Santa Claus — free stuff, lighter work and less personal responsibility. It may sound revolutionary but may simply be an inexorable path with a generation that has little interest or appreciation of how economies work.

When we look at the images coming out of France, we should see the warning. Until the older generation begins to clear out a path for opportunities that extend beyond the tech and financial elites, we risk seeing those same flames in North America as well.

National Post

This website uses cookies to personalize your content (including ads), and allows us to analyze our traffic. Read more about cookies here. By continuing to use our site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.