Ole Miss vs. Texas CFB picks, parlay: Longhorns would say goodbye to CFP with third straight loss
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Ole Miss would end Texas' Playoff hopes with an upset victory in Austin on Saturday
• 5 min read
This was one of the most anticipated Texas football seasons in many years as head coach Steve Sarkisian had the most expensive roster in the sport, including the preseason Heisman Trophy favorite in quarterback Arch Manning, who makes more this year than I will in a lifetime. But the sliding No. 19 Longhorns' season would for all intents and purposes be finished Saturday should they lose again at home Saturday to No. 7 Ole Miss. Bet on college football at DraftKings, where new users get $200 in bonuses and three free months of NBA when they spend $5+:
The AP Top 25 matchup kicks off at 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday on ABC. There is some weather around the country on Saturday but not in Austin per weather.com: Partly cloudy in the evening with more clouds for later at night. Low 62F. Winds SE at 5 to 10 mph. At DraftKings, 68% of the handle and 73% of the bets are on Ole Miss ATS. There's split action on the total of 53.5.
You can try college football betting on the best sports betting apps, but first you should check out the SportsLine Projection Model for picks on games from both the simulations and our experts. We have a strong play here for those who want to get into parlay betting for Ole Miss vs. Texas. Claim the best Kalshi promo code CBSSPORTS55, trade $25, and receive $55 in trading bonus credits here:
Ole Miss vs. Texas same-game parlay
- Longhorns ML
- Alt Under 60.5
DraftKings price: +126 (subject to change)
Those Manning Heisman hopes? Forget about it. There was actually talk about possibly benching the once mega-hyped recruit this week with him struggling in back-to-back losses. Turnovers have been a killer. Manning had two fourth-quarter interceptions in the Oct. 10 Red River Rivalry loss to Oklahoma that cost UT, then ranked No. 1 nationally, the game. And then in last week's loss to unranked Florida, Manning threw for only 173 yards and fumbled in the final two minutes, which allowed the Gators to seal it.
Manning is now +30000 to win the Heisman, the same price as Northwestern quarterback Aidan Chiles. Who expected that only two months ago? NFL scouts are seeing the same things we all are, and Manning is no longer considered to have much of a shot to be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2027 NFL Draft. He's priced +1100 to go first with Ohio State wideout and Heisman favorite Jeremiah Smith as the +210 leader. Some believe the Manning might even return to Texas and that he's on the roster next season is -200 at one sportsbook with No at +150. That Manning is in the 2027 Draft is +110 with No at -150. Interesting.
Reportedly, the embattled Sarkisian gave additional first-team quarterback reps to redshirt freshman KJ Lacey Jr. this week in practice. Sark made it clear that Manning, who had been 11-0 at home, remains the starter but needed to be better. Can you imagine the online frenzy if Manning is pulled Saturday against Ole Miss? After all, that's the school that produced Arch's father Cooper, uncle Eli and grandfather Archie, and it marks Arch's first time facing the Rebs.
Texas (4-2) is the first team since Michigan State in 1961 to lose consecutive games to unranked foes when entering that stretch at the AP No. 1. Now it tries to avoid becoming only the third school in history to lose three straight in a season after entering the year as the AP No. 1 team, and both of the others were from the Lone Star State: Texas in 1965 and Texas A&M in 1957. UT hasn't lost home games in consecutive weeks since 2015, when it lost to Cal and Oklahoma State.
A third loss probably ends any realistic shot that Texas has at the College Football Playoff, with it priced +126 to get in and -156 for No. The SportsLine Projection Model currently gives UT the 12th-best chance at 37.6%. That plummets to 15.2% with a defeat. And a loss might end Sarkisian's tenure in Austin come the end of the season. He's currently -300 to be the Texas coach for the start of next season with No at +200.
The thing is, a win Saturday might be delaying the inevitable with games still to play at No. 22 Missouri, No. 18 LSU and unranked but always dangerous Texas A&M. Win out, and there are no concerns but the model only has UT at 8.1 wins.
The good news is that Texas has won three straight home games against AP Top-10 opponents, including this year against Ohio State. The school record is four in a row (twice). But the bad news is that pass-rusher Colin Simmons, now by far the team's top 2027 NFL Draft prospect, is not expected to play due to an ankle sprain suffered in the Florida loss. Simmons leads the nation with 10.5 sacks and 16.0 tackles for loss.
Bet on Texas vs. Ole Miss and more at Caesars Spotsbook to get up to $250 in Bet Resets:
Not having Simmons is obviously not ideal against mobile Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss (+650 for the Heisman). He has 19 straight games with a passing TD and his 20 total touchdowns this season are second in the SEC. Thanks to him and star running back Kewan Lacy, the Rebels lead the nation in red-zone TD percentage at 87.5%.
Chambliss & Co. are -125 to make the Playoff (No is +102), and they would be in great shape with an upset because the only ranked foe left is No. 5 Georgia and that's in Oxford. The model gives the Rebels a 28.4% shot that rises to 55.5% with a win.
Ole Miss (5-1) already has three wins this year against AP-ranked foes and a fourth would tie 2015 for the most in a regular season in school history. But the Rebs are 1-10 in their past road games against ranked SEC teams with that win coming at Oklahoma last year. They are 1-6 ATS in their past seven as a road dog vs. ranked teams overall. Texas is on a five-game ATS losing streak, tied for its second-longest since 2000 (six in a row in 2021).
If this weren't in Austin, no chance. But I'm backing the desperate home side even if the Longhorns are clearly overrated. Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter.
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