Uncertainty over CATL lithium mine restart could fuel price volatility: analysts

Restart schedules for the Jianxiawo lithium mine in Yichun, Jiangxi Province operated by CATL – the world’s largest lithium-ion-battery producer – are now facing fresh uncertainty.

Analysts said the development could fuel volatility in lithium prices in the fourth quarter since the mine – the world’s largest single‑deposit lepidolite mine according to Yichun city – represented roughly 4 to 5 per cent of global supply when operating at full capacity.

Local environmental regulator Yichun Ecology and Environment Bureau said on its website on Wednesday that it had removed the public notice signalling proposed acceptance of the environmental impact assessment report for the CATL project.

The move has cast doubt over the timeline for a return to production since the operations were suspended in August 2025 when its original mining permit expired, according to CATL.

Market participants had earlier expected the mine to resume operations in late September, following its receipt of a safety-production permit on June 29 which cleared a critical regulatory hurdle, records from government platform Credit China show.

The latest hold-up had yet to meaningfully roil domestic lithium carbonate prices but the impact may be felt during the fourth-quarter, according to analysts.

“A number of lithium mines are going through mining-license conversion procedures,” said Xiao Jiaying, an analyst with Shanghai-based Orient Futures. “Together with the Jianxiawo episode, this leaves the fourth-quarter supply outlook more uncertain and will continue to fuel price swings.”