Retiring workers set to outnumber youth 2-to-1: NDC

• By Kao Chia-ho and Jonathan Chin / Staff reporter, with staff writer

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An average of 618 Taiwanese are expected to age out of the workforce each day, more than double the number of young people entering the workforce, the National Development Council’s (NDC) latest 20-year projections showed.

The council’s research, which used data compiled up to this year, showed that the population of Taiwanese aged 15 to 64 would decrease by 4,509,000 people in the next two decades.

The figure, which represents an increase of 3,000 people over the previous year’s model — the equivalent of 60 additional retirees a day — resulted from an accelerated decline in the nation’s demographics, the study said.

People cross a street in Taipei in an undated photograph.

Photo: CNA

This means that Taiwan would lose two workers to retirement for each young person entering the workforce, if the legal retirement age or birth rates stay the same, it said.

The model also showed that the share of middle-aged and elderly people in the workforce is set to rise to more than 50 percent, up from the 46.3 percent originally estimated, the study said.

This year, Taiwanese aged 45 to 64 numbered 7,292,000, accounting for 46.3 percent of the working-age population, it said.

This demographic would age out of the workplace by 2046, with only 3,095,000 young people taking their place, the study said.

A council spokesperson said the widening gap in the labor replacement rate is an alarming sign for the fiscal health of Taiwan’s social welfare programs.

Soaring expenditures and contracting tax revenues would make it increasingly difficult for labor pensions, civil servant retirement funds and National Health Insurance to balance the books, they said.

The nation must increase the retirement age, the workforce participation and retention rates for women and elderly people, and immigration to prevent a collapse of the welfare system, they said.