Economists demand faster growth as Nigeria turns 66

Nigeria’s leaders have marshalled diverse plans towards a common goal of prosperity, from the First National Development Plan of the 1960s and the military junta’s indigenisation and oil-led expansion policies to the current subsidy reform era. Economists affirm that progress is marginal, but growth is a journey and not a destination, ARINZE NWAFOR writes

Economists have said Nigeria has made only marginal progress since independence and must raise its Gross Domestic Product growth to about 10 per cent and deepen reforms to tackle long-standing setbacks.

The country marks its 66th Independence anniversary today, October 1, 2026, and economists noted that recent reforms had improved some macroeconomic indicators. They also argued that poverty, unemployment, insecurity, and weak productivity showed that the economy remained far from where it should be.

Policy journey

National economic development can be quite a long journey. It can also be viewed as a division of labour, theoretical and practical, over a long period of time.

Adam Smith wrote in his seminal work, Wealth of Nations: “The greatest improvement in the productive powers of labour, and the greater part of the skill, dexterity, and judgment with which it is anywhere directed, or applied, seem to have been the effects of the division of labour.”

Likewise, the successes and struggles of economic development in Nigeria have been the effects of the many policies. Scholars and average men and women alike debate these policies and how they have impacted the destiny of Nigerians.

For 66 years, successive governments have interlocked, from driving agriculture, infrastructure and import-substitution industrialisation to spending rising oil revenues and introducing the 1972 and 1977 indigenisation policies that increased Nigerian ownership of businesses.

Following the collapse in oil prices in the early 1980s, Nigeria faced fiscal pressure, foreign exchange shortages and import restrictions under the President Shehu Shagari and junta-led Muhammadu Buhari administrations. The crisis eventually produced the biggest policy shift since independence when the Babangida administration introduced the Structural Adjustment Programme in 1986.

SAP moved Nigeria towards market-based exchange rates, trade liberalisation, deregulation, financial-sector reform and privatisation. It marked a departure from the era of heavy state controls.

A summary of a CBN Economic and Financial Review research article on the benefits and costs of SAP noted, “Among the benefits highlighted were the removal of the overvaluation of the naira exchange rate, the boost to agricultural exports, greater industrial capacity utilisation and the improved international confidence in the Nigerian economy. Some of the costs of the programme were the increased inflationary pressures, the credit squeeze and influx of imported finished goods.”

Economic reforms tend to mark a country indelibly. Few policies have been the subject of as much discussion in Nigeria’s economic history as SAP. Through the 1990s and into the Fourth Republic, the market-oriented reforms continued, although with varying degrees of state intervention.

President Olusegun Obasanjo’s administration revived the reform agenda through the National Economic Empowerment and Development Strategy, privatisation, deregulation and banking consolidation.

President Musa Yar’Adua’s administration’s Seven-Point Agenda and President Goodluck Jonathan’s Transformation Agenda reflected this attempt to combine market reforms with a stronger development and diversification agenda, while civilian-led President Buhari’s Economic Recovery and Growth Plan and National Development Plan maintained the focus on diversification and infrastructure.

Since 2023, President Bola Tinubu’s administration has introduced another major phase of market adjustment, led by the removal of petrol subsidies and reforms to the foreign exchange market. The measures seek to reduce fiscal distortions and allow prices and exchange rates to play a greater role in allocating resources, while the government has also pursued tax and other structural reforms.

The economy has been characterised by state-led planning and oil-funded expansion, followed by crisis and austerity, then market liberalisation, followed by attempts to balance market reforms with diversification and development. Now, it is returning to market-based economic management.

Economists mark journey

The Chief Executive Officer, Economic Associates, Dr Ayo Teriba, described the economy as a journey rather than a destination, stating, “When you are trying to assess where the economy is, it is not a destination; it is a journey.”

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He credited President Bola Tinubu’s administration with ending price subsidies on petroleum products and foreign exchange, and with easing controls on power and telecoms. Teriba said real GDP growth had risen from 2.5 per cent in May 2023 to 4.43 per cent.

He added that foreign reserves had grown from $3.99bn to over $40bn, while inflation had eased from a peak of 35 per cent to about 15 per cent.

Teriba said stock market capitalisation had risen from N33tn in 2023 to N163tn. “So you’ve got growth acceleration, reserve adequacy, and inflation deceleration,” he remarked.

He said the exchange rate had also stabilised after the unification of multiple rates. Teriba, however, said the economy had yet to reach its destination. “It’s not where we want to be yet, but we are getting closer to where we want to be,” he said.

Meanwhile, the Director, Public Sector Initiative, Lagos Business School, Prof Franklin Ngwu, affirmed that the country had made progress since 1960 in population growth and some infrastructure, but assessed that it had failed to reach the level expected of Africa’s largest economy and most populous nation.

“Key socioeconomic indicators like unemployment, poverty, insecurity, and productivity are disturbing,” Ngwu said.

Ngwu noted that Nigeria also performed poorly on the World Bank’s Worldwide Governance Indicators, which cover the rule of law, regulatory quality, government effectiveness, control of corruption and accountability.

He said low productivity underpinned the country’s problems and urged the Federal Government to build industrial clusters across the six geopolitical zones based on each zone’s comparative advantage.

Ngwu said the economy must grow much faster to cope with the country’s expanding population.

“We are supposed to be growing at least at about 10 per cent in terms of GDP to be able to absorb the increasing population, reduce poverty, reduce insecurity, and say that we are taking Nigeria in the right direction,” Ngwu said.

He said the Federal Government must “genuinely and patriotically reimagine Nigeria” and redouble its efforts so that reforms deliver positive results for ordinary Nigerians.

The Professor of Economics and Public Policy, University of Uyo, Prof Akpan Ekpo, was more critical. He said progress had been marginal and that the country was retrogressing in some areas.

“Progress has been very marginal,” Ekpo said.

He explained that successive reforms had yielded little for the majority and that trickle-down economics, which he noted many countries had abandoned, had not worked for Nigeria.

The economist observed that the middle class had been wiped out and the growing youth population was losing hope, which he said fuelled the “japa” syndrome.

“You make progress when your population, 80 per cent, have access to education, quality health, quality education, quality housing, etc,” Ekpo said.

He said only 15 to 20 per cent of Nigerians had access to the basic needs of life. Ekpo said the country had the natural and human resources to do better. “66 years is mature enough, but we have not made much progress,” he said.

He called on the government to put in place a leadership that would rally Nigerians behind a new set of national priorities and restore hope to the youth.