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Friday, September 11, 2026

Global coal demand forecast to rise by 1.2% in 2026 to a record 8.94 billion tonnes due to Middle East conflict, IEA says

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Global coal demand is forecast to rise by ​1.2% in 2026 to a record 8.94 billion ‌tonnes due to the Middle East conflict, the International Energy Agency said on Thursday.

  • Disruptions to oil and liquefied natural gas ​shipments through the Strait of Hormuz since ​the U.S.-Iran war started have driven up prices ⁠and encouraged higher electricity generation from coal in countries ​that have gas-fired power fleets and spare coal capacity, ​the IEA added in an update on the coal sector.
  • There has been higher coal use in Europe, Japan, Korea, China ​and other markets than previously expected.
  • The IEA had expected ​global coal demand to decline slightly this year.
  • Next year, there is ‌uncertainty ⁠about demand as it will depend on whether shipping traffic through Hormuz recovers. If it does, demand could decrease in 2027 but if the strait remains ​largely closed to ​LNG shipments, ⁠coal demand could increase further, the IEA said.
  • Global coal production is expected to ​decline this year but is set to ​remain ⁠above 9 billion tonnes for a third consecutive year.
  • Output in China, the world’s biggest producer, declined after safety inspections ⁠following ​a major mine accident in ​May which has resulted in a significant reduction of coal production.

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