Bears vs. Packers odds, picks, prediction, spread, line: NFL Week 5 start time, betting preview, best bets

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Here's everything bettors need to know for Bears vs. Packers in an NFC North battle Sunday in NFL Week 5

Oct 11, 2026 at 8:01 am ET • 4 min read

The Chicago Bears will head into Lambeau Field for a Sunday NFL Week 5 matchup against the Green Bay Packers as both teams look to stay within striking distance of the unbeaten Minnesota Vikings in the NFC North. The Bears (3-1) have won consecutive games behind backup quarterbacks, while Green Bay (2-2) comes in off a sloppy 17-14 victory against Tampa Bay last Sunday. Kickoff for Bears vs. Packers is set for 1 p.m. ET, and DraftKings Sportsbook lists Chicago as a 3-point road favorite, while the Over/Under is set at 45.5. Spend $5+ on Bears-Packers in NFL Week 5 with the latest DraftKings promo code and get $150 in bonus bets:

We'll break down the latest Bears vs. Packers odds from DraftKings here and reveal our best bets with help from the SportsLine Projection Model. The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on betting sites on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model entered Week 5 of the 2026 NFL season on a 55-44 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its picks at NFL betting sites could have seen strong returns. 

Bears vs. Packers betting odds (via DraftKings)

Bears vs. Packers money line:	Bears -148, Packers +124
Bears vs. Packers Over/Under:	45.5 (Over -108, Under -112)
Bears vs. Packers spread:	Bears -3

Bears vs. Packers betting preview

It's been a strange few weeks for the Bears, but they have kept winning despite starting quarterback Caleb Williams going down with a hamstring injury in their only loss. That ugly 9-3 setback to the Vikings in Week 2 followed an offensive onslaught against the Panthers in the opener. Chicago won that one 59-37 behind 267 passing yards, 65 rushing yards and four total TDs from Williams. Case Keenum and Tyson Bagent have started the past two games, with the veteran Keenum throwing for 247 yards in a win against the Eagles and Bagent, who should start Sunday, throwing for 268 last week as Chicago beat the Jets. Caleb Williams (hamstring) was limited on Friday and is questionable, but Bagent is still seen as likely to start. 

The Bears keep winning because they can run the ball against almost anyone, as they average an NFL-best 196.3 yards on the ground. Running backs Kyle Monangai (314 yards) and D'Andre Swift (311) lead the attack, and receivers Rome Odunze, Kalif Raymond and Luther Burden III all have more than 200 receiving yards. Monangai is out for this week, however. The Bears lead the NFL in total offense at 429 yards per game and score 28 points per contest (ninth).

Defensively, Chicago is third overall, allowing 282.3 yards per game, and opponents are averaging just 16.3 points, fourth-fewest in the league. The Packers are minus-2 in turnover margin while Chicago has six takeaways and is plus-1. Dayo Odeyingbo has led the way up front, posting three of the team's 11 sacks, while fellow ends Austin Booker and Montez Sweat have two apiece. 

The Bears have covered the spread in three of their four games after going 12-7 ATS last season, including the playoffs. They beat the Packers 31-27 in the Wild Card Round before losing to the Rams in the Divisional Round. Chicago has gone Under the game total in three of four this year after going 9-10 to the Over in 2025. Wager on Bears-Packers at FanDuel and get up to $250 in bonus bets:

The Packers came out of Raymond James Stadium with a victory last week, but it wasn't always pretty as Green Bay had 10 penalties and each team turned the ball over twice. The Bucs started Jalon Daniels at quarterback, and the undrafted rookie free agent threw for 148 yards and ran for 55 but threw two interceptions. Green Bay is 23rd in the league in scoring defense, yielding 26.3 points per game. 

The defense doesn't give up huge yardage and actually ranks fourth in the league against the pass (185 yards per game). The bad news for Sunday is that the Packers allow 139.3 rushing yards per game and the Bears have the best run game in the league. They did hold Tampa Bay's running backs to 86 yards on 23 carries last week, but they won't be facing Bucky Irving and Sean Tucker this week.

Green Bay's offense went just 2-of-10 on third-down conversions in last week's victory, but they did run the ball more successfully than they did in previous weeks. And that came against a very good Tampa Bay run defense, so maybe Kaleb Johnson (43 yards last week) and Chris Brooks (30) can get something going against a Bears defense that allows 102.5 rushing yards per game (13th in NFL). That would take some pressure off Jordan Love, who has been up-and-down, topping 300 passing yards in two games and going under 200 in the others. 

The quarterback is eighth in the league with 1,051 passing yards and has eight TD passes and three interceptions. Receivers Christian Watson (311 yards) and Matthew Golden (247) have combined for six touchdowns, and tight end Tucker Kraft is third on the team with 15 catches. MarShawn Lloyd is the team's top rusher with 81 yards, and no Green Bay running back has a TD this season. The Packers are 12-10 to the Over since the start of last season (2-2 this year) and are 8-14 against the spread over that span. Wager on NFL Week 5 games, including Bears-Packers, with the latest BetMGM bonus code CBSSPORTS to get up to $1,500 in bonus bets:

Bears vs. Packers picks, prediction

Packers ML

The SportsLine model sees strong value on the Packers, as they are winning in 48% of its simulations with a plus-money payout. Green Bay comes in with a healthy quarterback, and if they can find a way to get the ground game going against a middling Bears run defense, the passing game should thrive. Love gives Green Bay's the edge on offense, and Watson and Golden have been making big plays. Add in that they'll have the Lambeau faithful behind them in a tense division game, and the model likes the Packers' chances.