NFL survivor pool picks, advice, best knockout strategy, Week 1, 2026: Fade the Dallas Cowboys

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SportsLine's advanced computer model just locked in its top Week 1 NFL survivor picks

Sep 13, 2026 at 11:04 am ET • 3 min read

Week 1 of the NFL season continues on Sunday, and most of the popular NFL survivor pool picks are still on the board since few were utilizing any teams in Seahawks vs. Patriots or Rams vs. 49ers. The opening week brings arguably the most challenging slate for NFL survivor picks since there's no in-season data to analyze. There are also several other divisional matchups including Packers vs. Vikings (-1.5), Commanders vs. Eagles (-5.5), Cowboys vs. Giants (+3) on Sunday night and Broncos vs. Chiefs (-2.5) on Monday night. New to sports trading? Visit our Kalshi promo code review and get a $25 bonus after $25+ in trades with the Kalshi promo code CBSSPORTS:

Meanwhile, there are three games where the line exceeds a touchdown -- Cardinals at Chargers (-9.5), Browns at Jaguars (-8.5) and Saints at Lions (-7). A fourth, Dolphins vs. Steelers (-6), is now at one touchdown after new broke that Cooper Rush will start for Atlanta in place of Tua Tagovailoa. Should you target one of those games, or roll the dice a bit with a matchup that's projected to be closer to save teams for later in the season? Before making any Week 1 NFL survivor pool picks, see which team the red-hot SportsLine Projection Model just went all-in on.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on betting sites on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters the 2026 NFL season on a 53-37 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its picks at NFL betting sites could have seen strong returns.  

Now, it has turned its attention to the Week 1 NFL schedule and locked in its Week 1 survivor pool pick. You can only see who the model is backing this week at SportsLine. 

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Top Week 1 NFL survivor pool predictions 

In Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season, the model is not confident in the Dallas Cowboys (-3), even though they are -160 favorites on the money line against the Giants at the best betting apps. The New York Giants went 4-13 last season and have since hired a new coaching staff, led by former Baltimore Ravens coach John Harbaugh. 

Quarterback Jaxson Dart will look to build on a season in which he threw for 2,272 yards and 15 touchdowns and five interceptions in 14 games played, and star receiver Malik Nabers (knee) is reportedly trending towards playing in Week 1. 

Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott enters his 11th season and is coming off a season in which he threw for 4,552 yards and 30 touchdowns with just 10 interceptions. The Cowboys were on track to make the postseason before losing four of their last five games in 2025. They are also just 2-4 over their last six Week 1 games. The model projects that the Giants win in 45% of simulations, making the Cowboys an extremely risky selection in a game the computer says will come down to less than a field goal. See which team to pick instead here. 

How to make Week 1 NFL survivor pool picks 

Instead, the model is confidently backing a team many have not used in survivor pools to win outright in well over 80% of simulations. The time to pick this team is now, and you can only see the play over at SportsLine.

Which surprising team is a must-back in your Week 1 NFL survivor pool? Visit SportsLine now to see which team carries you to victory in Week 1, all from the advanced computer model that nails survivor picks and is up well over $7,000 since its inception.