Powerful cyclone nears PAR, but habagat remains rainmaker

This satellite-based graphic rendering shows the relative position of tropical cyclone with international name Saudel, which will be renamed Obet once inside the Philippines' vicinity, as of 8:15 a.m. on Monday, Aug. 24, 2026.

JTWC

MANILA, Philippines — Typhoon Saudel may strengthen into a super typhoon before entering the Philippine area of responsibility on Monday, August 24, but PAGASA said it is unlikely to directly affect Philippine weather or sea conditions over the next three days.

Once inside PAR, Saudel will be given the local name Obet.

As of 3 a.m. Monday, Saudel was 1,660 kilometers east-northeast of extreme Northern Luzon, packing maximum sustained winds of 175 kph near the center and gusts of up to 215 kph.

It was moving west-northwestward at 30 kph.

Forecast track of typhoon Saudel (to be named Obet) as of 11 p.m. Sunday, Aug. 23, 2026.

PAGASA

The state weather bureau forecasts Saudel to cross the northeastern boundary of PAR Monday morning or afternoon and possibly reach super typhoon strength before entry.

If it does so, its stay would be short as the typhoon is likely to remain over the Philippine Sea and exit PAR by Tuesday, August 25. If it adopts a more westward track, however, Saudel could linger inside PAR beyond Tuesday.

After reaching its peak intensity, the cyclone is expected to gradually weaken.

Habagat drives Monday rains

Despite Saudel's strength, the rains affecting Luzon on Monday are being driven by the southwest monsoon, or habagat.

Batanes may receive 50 to 100 millimeters of rain, with possible flooding or landslides.

Metro Manila, the Ilocos Region, Cordillera Administrative Region, Central Luzon, the rest of Cagayan Valley, Cavite, Batangas and Rizal may experience scattered rain and thunderstorms due to the habagat.

Moderate to at times heavy rain in these areas may also trigger flash floods or landslides.

Moderate to strong southwesterly winds are forecast over northern and western Luzon, where waves may reach 3.4 meters.

PAGASA is also monitoring two tropical depressions outside PAR. One was 1,330 kilometers east of southeastern Luzon as of 3 a.m., while Gaenari, formerly Tropical Depression Neneng, was 520 kilometers north of Itbayat, Batanes.