College Football Playoff Rankings prediction: Miami on top, surprise SEC team begins in top four
The Hurricanes are poised to sit atop the initial top 25 release on Tuesday, while a new metric could push a surprising SEC contender into the top four
• 5 min read
The first College Football Playoff Rankings of the 2026 season are finally almost here.
On Tuesday night, the CFP Selection Committee will unveil its first rankings. Outside of the final rankings, the first are the most interesting because they establish a baseline for the rest of the season.
There are new selection committee members (hello, Jeff Tedford and Gus Malzahn) and new metrics (strength of conference) that could lead to a new-look ranking from what we've seen in the past. It's why the first rankings are the hardest to predict because even when you know the metrics the committee focuses on, each group full of new members every year could prioritize some over others.
CBS Sports has taken on the yeoman's work of predicting what the committee will do each week in its 1 through 25 rankings.
1. Miami (8-0)
Best win: Wake Forest
The Hurricanes are the No. 1 team unless they lose. A win over Notre Dame this weekend would fortify this spot for Miami.
2. Georgia (7-1)
Best win: Alabama
The best team in the SEC should get a first-round bye if it wins the conference.
3. Utah (8-0)
Best win: Houston
The frontrunner to win the Big 12 could really solidify its position for a first-round bye with a win over BYU this weekend.
4. Kentucky (7-1)
Best win: LSU
Kentucky has one of the best resumes in the country. The Wildcats are 2-1 against top-25 opponents, have the nation's No. 2 strength of record and No. 4 strength of schedule. Kentucky already has a marquee win over LSU and could bolster its case with a win over Tennessee on Saturday.
5. BYU (7-1)
Best win: Notre Dame
The Cougars have both the best win (Notre Dame) and the worst loss (UCF) of the top five teams.
6. UCLA (8-0)
Best win: Oregon
Where the Bruins land in the initial rankings will be one of the more fascinating decisions the committee makes. The Bruins have a weak schedule but are undefeated and poised to finish 11-1 or 12-0 in the regular season.
7. Indiana (8-1)
Best win: Northwestern
Not only does Indiana have one of the weaker resumes, but the Hoosiers haven't passed the "eye test" in weeks. Indiana gets dinged for it in the first rankings.
8. Notre Dame (7-1)
Best win: Wisconsin
As I wrote over the weekend, ND's playoff path is suddenly perilous if it doesn't beat Miami this weekend. The Fighting Irish have no top-25 wins and won't even have a chance for one after Miami, with SMU getting knocked out of the top 25.
9. Texas (6-2)
Best win: Ohio State
The Longhorns get the edge over the Buckeyes with the head-to-head victory. Texas has two of the best wins in the country against a full-strength Ohio State and Ole Miss.
10. Alabama (6-2)
Best win: Kentucky
The win over Kentucky has aged beautifully, and the two losses (Georgia, Tennessee) are both quality. There isn't much margin for error the rest of the way, though.
11. Ohio State (6-2)
Best win: Indiana
The Buckeyes still have a 69.6% chance to make the playoff, according to the CBS Sports forecasting model, but that number drops to 36.3% if they lose to Oregon. Ohio State badly needs a win and to prove it is still a quality team without injured quarterback Julian Sayin.
12. Ole Miss (6-2)
Best win: LSU
The Rebels have two quality wins (LSU, Missouri), one quality loss (Texas) and one blowout loss (Florida). This feels about right for Ole Miss, with the chance for a big jump next week if it can beat Georgia at home.
13. Tennessee (6-2)
Best win: Alabama
The loss to South Carolina was damaging, but the win over Alabama is still valuable for the Vols' resume.
14. Texas Tech (7-1)
Best win: Houston
The Red Raiders have a very manageable schedule down the stretch, which should allow them to move up the rankings in the future.
15. USC (7-2)
Best win: Ohio State
With the smoke getting louder and louder about his job security, Lincoln Riley (briefly) quieted the critics with a win over Ohio State. It will be interesting, though, to see how much the committee discounts that win occurring against a Julian Sayin-less OSU team.
16. Wake Forest (7-1)
Best win: Louisville
This may feel low for the Demon Deacons, but zero top wins pulls them down a bit. There's room to move up, however, and its strong SOR rating (No. 10 nationally) will come in handy.
17. LSU (6-2)
Best win: Auburn
The Tigers have three big win opportunities coming up that will make or break their case– Alabama, Texas and Tennessee – but the resume is a bit lacking without a top-25 win.
18. Missouri (6-2)
Best win: Florida
A win over Texas this weekend could jump the Tigers into the top 10.
19. Houston (6-2)
Best win: Oklahoma State
The Cougars have two quality losses (Utah, Texas Tech) but zero top 25 wins now that Oklahoma State dropped out.
20. South Carolina (5-3)
Best win: Tennessee
The Gamecocks yet again owned October with wins over Florida, Tennessee and Oklahoma. With a 2-2 record against the top 25 and SOR and SOS that rank in the top 25, South Carolina has a sneaky good resume.
21. Florida (5-3)
Best win: Ole Miss
The Gators have two quality wins (Ole Miss, Texas), two bad blowout losses (Missouri, South Carolina) and one understandable loss (Georgia).
22. Iowa (6-2)
Best win: Michigan
The Hawkeyes blasted Wisconsin and are still hanging around, albeit a playoff longshot.
23. Boise State (7-1)
Best win: Memphis
The Broncos remain the highest-rated Group of Six school and would earn an automatic bid into the field.
24. Oregon (5-3)
Best win: USC
The Ducks' playoff hopes are hanging by a thread but would jump nearly 20% from 5.7 to 24.7% playoff odds with a road win over Ohio State on Saturday.
25. Northwestern (6-2)
Best win: Penn State
This final spot came down to Northwestern and Arizona, but the Wildcats got the slight edge with better SOR and SOS ratings.
Bracket based on first CFP Rankings prediction
First round
Dec. 18-19 at higher seeds
No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 BYU
No. 11 Ohio State at No. 6 UCLA
No. 10 Texas at No. 7 Indiana
No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Notre Dame
Quarterfinal matchups
Dec. 30 in Glendale, Ariz., Jan. 1 in Atlanta, Arlington, Texas, and Pasadena, Calif.
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