Total support for right-wing parties rises in Newspoll before Secret Harbour byelection

Both the Newspoll and Redbridge polls were entirely conducted before Saturday’s Western Australian Secret Harbour byelection, in which One Nation had a big win over Labor. In Newspoll, the total vote for One Nation and the Coalition was up two points to 49%.

After an outlier-looking 53% for the combined right in its late July poll, Redbridge has the right at 50% in its latest poll.

Federal Newspoll

A national Newspoll, conducted August 24–28 from a sample of 1,243, gave One Nation 30% of the primary vote (up one since the previous Newspoll, three weeks ago), Labor 29% (steady), the Coalition 19% (up one), the Greens 13% (down one) and all Others 9% (down one).

No two-party estimate was published, but the gain for the right would mean Labor’s two-party vote against One Nation would drop.

Anthony Albanese’s net approval was up one point to -21 (59% dissatisfied, 38% satisfied), maintaining his streak of net approvals in Newspoll at or below -15 since late February. The graph below shows Albanese’s net approval in Newspoll with a smoothed line.

Angus Taylor’s net approval was down five points to -17 (50% dissatisfied, 33% satisfied). Pauline Hanson’s net approval was up two points to -1 (48% dissatisfied, 47% satisfied).

In the standard better PM question, Albanese led Taylor by 44–35 (44–37 previously). In a three-way forced choice question, Albanese had 46% (steady), Hanson 31% (steady) and Taylor 23% (steady). After preferences from Taylor’s voters, Albanese led Hanson by an unchanged 56–44.

On house prices in the respondent’s local area, 13% wanted them to increase by 15% in the next two years, 17% increase by 5%, 32% stay about the same, 13% decrease by 5% and 19% decrease by 15%, for a total of 32–30 favouring a decrease.

In the mid-August Resolve poll, respondents supported bringing house prices down by 60–10. However, this question asked about house prices in general, while Newspoll has asked about house prices in your local area.

Redbridge poll

The Poll Bludger reported that a national Redbridge and Accent Research poll for The Financial Review, conducted August 24–28 from a sample of 1,006, gave Labor 29% of the primary vote (steady since the late July Redbridge poll), One Nation 28% (down three), the Coalition 22% (steady), the Greens 12% (up two) and all Others 9% (up one).

By respondent preferences, Labor led One Nation by 52–48, a one-point gain for One Nation. The Coalition led Labor by an unchanged 52–48. But using 2025 election preference flows, Labor led the Coalition by 52–48, a two-point gain for Labor.

A greater share of Coalition and One Nation preferences assisting the other right-wing party probably explains why the respondent preferences figures are unchanged or worse for Labor even though the combined vote for One Nation and the Coalition was down three points.

In a three-way preferred PM question, Albanese had 31% (down one), Hanson 24% (steady) and Taylor 15% (steady).

NT Mulka byelection on September 12

A byelection in the Northern Territory local seat of Mulka will occur on September 12 after the mid-August resignation of independent member Yingiya Mark Guyula. Only two candidates are contesting: Labor’s Yiwarr McGrath and independent Andrew Blamey, with the governing Country Liberal Party (CLP) not contesting.

At the 2024 NT election, Guyula defeated the CLP by 75.2–24.8 with Labor not contesting. In 2020, he had defeated Labor by 55.1–44.9. Over 60% of Mulka’s population is Indigenous.