Isaias landfall forecast: Tropical storm heads for US Gulf Coast; Florida declares emergency

Tropical Storm Isaias has formed over the Gulf of Mexico and is forecast to strengthen rapidly in the coming days, potentially reaching significant hurricane strength. AccuWeather expects Isaias to become a hurricane over the central Gulf before making landfall along the US Gulf Coast late Friday or early Saturday, with the storm likely to reach Category 2 strength and possibly intensify briefly to Category 3.

AccuWeather Hurricane Experts said Isaias is likely to become the first hurricane of the 2026 Atlantic season, potentially making it the latest first hurricane to form in the Atlantic basin in more than 100 years.

The storm is forecast to bring a combination of storm surge, heavy rainfall and damaging winds to areas stretching from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle.

Isaias was centered about 285 miles (460 km) west of Progreso, Mexico, and roughly 580 miles (935 km) southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River, the AP reported, citing the Miami-based National Hurricane Center. The storm had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph (65 kph) and was moving east-northeast at 8 mph (13 kph).

Isaias landfall forecast

The exact location of Isaias' landfall remained uncertain. According to the AP, the National Hurricane Center's initial projections indicated that the storm's center could come ashore late Friday or early Saturday somewhere between eastern Louisiana and the western Florida Panhandle.

Residents along the northern Gulf Coast were urged to monitor the storm's progress and prepare for potential impacts.

“There is an increasing risk of dangerous wind and storm surge impacts along portions of the northern Gulf Coast,” the hurricane center said, according to AP.

The agency urged residents from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle to closely follow forecast updates and ensure they had hurricane plans in place.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis also declared a state of emergency for 25 counties across the Panhandle and Big Bend regions, AP reported. The declaration activates the state's emergency management plan and allows authorities to deploy personnel and equipment to respond to potential impacts.

Isaias could reach Category 3 strength

AccuWeather currently expects Isaias to reach Category 2 strength on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale before making landfall late Friday night or early Saturday morning.

But there is a possibility the storm could become a major hurricane before reaching the coast.

“There is a chance the storm peaks as a Category 3, or major hurricane, while over the central Gulf,” AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Bernie Rayno warned.

Heavy rain threat across US Southeast

Beyond the potential landfall zone, Isaias is expected to bring heavy rain to parts of the Gulf Coast and much of the US Southeast from Friday into the weekend, according to forecasters cited by AP.

The storm was also expected to strengthen as it moved toward the Gulf Coast, raising concerns about wind and storm-surge impacts along parts of the northern Gulf Coast.

The hurricane center said Isaias is pronounced “ees-ah-EE-ahs.”

25 inches of rain possible

While strong winds and storm surge could cause major problems along the coast, AccuWeather said heavy rainfall and flooding may be the biggest threat from Isaias.

The storm is expected to produce 1–4 inches of rain across a broad part of the southeastern United States, while areas close to and just east of the storm's center could receive 4–8 inches or 8–12 inches.

AccuWeather's Local StormMax rainfall forecast is 25 inches.

The flooding threat could be particularly serious in areas where the ground remains saturated following heavy rainfall over the past week.

As Isaias approaches the north-central Gulf Coast, squally winds and rainfall are expected to increase. After landfall, heavier and steadier rain could spread inland along a north-northeasterly path.

120 mph wind gusts, storm surge threat

AccuWeather forecasts wind gusts of 100–120 mph near and just east of the hurricane's center if Isaias reaches hurricane strength before landfall. Its Local StormMax wind gust is 120 mph.

A wider area of the Southeast could experience tropical-storm-force winds of 40–60 mph, particularly around the central Gulf Coast and into Tennessee.

The worst wind damage and coastal storm-surge flooding are expected near and just east of where the storm makes landfall, AccuWeather said.

The strengthening storm is also expected to produce higher seas and large swells, creating dangerous conditions for small craft and increasing the risk of strong rip currents along Gulf Coast beaches.

Tornadoes, waterspouts also possible

Isaias could bring additional severe-weather hazards beyond flooding and hurricane-force winds.

“Another hazard from the storm will be the risk of severe thunderstorms, including tornadoes and waterspouts,” Rayno said.

The bulk of the severe weather is expected near and east of the storm's center, although the tornado and waterspout threat could extend hundreds of miles to the east this weekend, according to AccuWeather.