Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners betting preview as Wild Card race heats up in final weeks

It has been only a couple of days since our last baseball game, and with football back, there will be a little less attention paid to the diamond. However, we shouldn't completely turn our back on Major League Baseball.

They are entering the last couple of weeks of games, and the Wild Card race is in full swing. With the playoffs on the horizon, let's get a bit of money in our pockets prior to their arrival. We have a good game between the Rangers and Mariners this afternoon.

The Texas Rangers are 72-74 and currently sit in second place in the American League West. This is most likely their best path to the postseason. There is still a chance they could capture a Wild Card spot. The Rangers are 1.5 games back of the final spot in that race as well, but they would need to get past the Guardians and the Blue Jays in order to advance. The Orioles are also hot on the Rangers' heels. Winning as much as possible is key over the final 16 games of their season.

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Texas Rangers starting pitcher Jacob deGrom (48) delivers to the plate during the first inning against the Los Angeles Angels at Angel Stadium. (Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Imagn Images)

Looking to steal this series and advance their standing a bit today is Jacob deGrom. When the Rangers got him on their roster, this is specifically the type of game they wanted him for. Although deGrom isn't quite the elite starter that he was years ago, he is still very good. For the season, deGrom is 10-9 with a 3.96 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP. This isn't a guy you'd expect to see with significantly different splits, but he has them. On the road, he has a 5.86 ERA, compared to just 2.46 at home. He has been awesome against the Mariners this season, with three starts covering 14 innings and two earned runs.

The Seattle Mariners will go down as one of the more disappointing teams in baseball. Expectations were extremely high for this team after having made it to the American League Championship Series. The team is loaded in the rotation; they made moves to address issues in the offseason, and the lineup, on paper, is one of the deepest in baseball. Sometimes things don't work out, and that appears to be the case for Seattle this season. They are 10 games under coming into today and are six games behind the Astros and 5.5 games out of the last Wild Card spot.

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Seattle Mariners pitcher Logan Gilbert (36) delivers a pitch against the Milwaukee Brewers in the first inning at American Family Field in Milwaukee, Wis., on Aug. 19, 2026. (IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect)

In order to try to keep their slim hopes alive today is Logan Gilbert. I've discussed Gilbert's numbers previously, but as a reminder, Gilbert is 11-9 with a 3.71 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP. His biggest downfall this season has been his performance at home this year. He has allowed 23 of his 26 homers in Seattle and has a 4.45 ERA in his home park. He has faced the Rangers three times this season and has allowed seven earned runs over 17 innings this year.

Julio Rodríguez #44 of the Seattle Mariners walks to the dugout during the fourth inning against the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Field on July 24, 2026 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images) (Stacy Revere/Getty Images)

The total in this game is far too low. The books have it hung at 6.5 which is in line with pitchers of this caliber facing off. However, these pitchers are not pitching well in these situations. Gilbert has struggled at home, and deGrom has looked bad on the road this season. They have better numbers against their opposition, but I think we should see at least seven runs in this game. Give me the over 6.5. I am also taking the Rangers on the moneyline. I think they are the better team and I like deGrom's work against Seattle this season.

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