LPA may become storm in 2 days as habagat persists – Pagasa

MANILA, Philippines — A low-pressure area (LPA) in the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR) has a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next two days, but the southwest monsoon, or habagat, continues to bring heavy rain over Luzon and Visayas, the state weather bureau said Monday.

In the 5 p.m. briefing, Charmagne Varilla, a weather specialist at the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa), said the LPA was last located 1,160 kilometers east of Northern Luzon.

Varilla said there were two possible scenarios for the system.

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“If this develops into a full-fledged storm, it could become part of what we call the monsoon track, or the path through which the southwest monsoon passes,” Varilla explained. “If it does not develop into a full-fledged storm and is overtaken by a possible storm over China, its chances of further development will decrease, and it could dissipate.”

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Either scenario could still affect the habagat, which Varilla said is expected to continue bringing rain over Luzon and the Visayas throughout the week.

Heavy rain forecast

Pagasa on Monday forecast 100 to 200 millimeters of rain from Monday through Tuesday afternoon over Benguet, La Union, Pangasinan, Zambales, Bataan, and Occidental Mindoro.

Flooding is likely, particularly in urbanized, low-lying, and river-adjacent areas, while landslides are likely in moderately to highly susceptible areas.

Meanwhile, 50 to 100 mm of rain is forecast over Metro Manila and several areas in Luzon and the Visayas, including Bulacan, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Pampanga, Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal, Oriental Mindoro, and Antique. Localized flooding and landslides remain possible in susceptible areas.

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Varilla said bursts of heavy rain could continue over Metro Manila and large parts of Central and Southern Luzon and Calabarzon through Wednesday, with rainfall expected to ease somewhat by Thursday and Friday, although cloudy skies and scattered rain could persist.

READ: Habagat dumps 201.7 mm of rain in 5 hours, close to Ondoy

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READ: LIST: Flooded areas in Metro Manila on Monday as habagat persists

“Over the next three days, we should expect bursts of heavy rain in Metro Manila, as well as in large parts of Central and Southern Luzon and Calabarzon. This will continue through Wednesday,” Varilla said.

“By Thursday through Friday, conditions should improve somewhat, with rainfall decreasing, although skies will remain cloudy with scattered rain,” she added.

Rain to persist in Northern Luzon

Baguio City, Benguet, La Union, and parts of Pangasinan could continue experiencing occasional rain or bursts of rain through Thursday, Varilla said.

She urged residents in these areas to remain cautious, particularly those in areas that experienced landslides in the previous week.

By Friday, rainfall over parts of Northern Luzon is expected to decrease, although the habagat could continue bringing a higher chance of rain through the weekend. In Legazpi City, the habagat is also expected to bring scattered rain through Friday.

Scattered rains in parts of Visayas

Over the next three days, Western Visayas and the Negros Island Region are expected to experience scattered rain due to the habagat.

The rest of the Visayas is expected to have generally fair weather, although isolated rain showers brought by the habagat remain possible.

In much of Mindanao, generally fair weather is expected, although conditions could be hot and humid, with isolated rain showers and thunderstorms still possible.

Pagasa said rainfall could be higher in mountainous and elevated areas, while significant rainfall in previous days could worsen impacts in some areas.

Beyond the LPA inside the PAR, Pagasa is monitoring two other weather systems that could develop in the coming days, including one outside the PAR that could potentially enter the monitoring area next week.

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Varilla said uncertainty remains high as the agency tracks the systems and their possible interaction with the habagat. /mcm