ESPN·United States·Thursday, September 3, 2026 at 05:06 PM

23 people with the most to gain (or lose) this NFL season: Barnwell on Mayfield, Pickens, Mannion, more

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Bill Barnwell

Bill BarnwellSep 3, 2026, 06:20 AM ET
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Some people around the NFL have more riding on the 2026 season than others. The vast majority of players are on one-year deals or have limited or no guaranteed money waiting for them in 2027. Every coordinator and assistant coach is one bad year away from potentially looking for work. And although a fair number of head coaches and general managers have real job security, others might have a storied career with one team come down to a missed field goal or a contested catch at the wrong time -- to which John Harbaugh and Sean McDermott can attest.

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Today, I'm looking at the players, coaches and executives who might be most impacted by what they do -- or don't do -- during the 2026 campaign. Perhaps it is a player in position to make life-changing money if he has a good season at the right time. Perhaps it is someone on the verge of losing their path to a starting role. It could also mean coaches and executives looking to lock up another contract with a successful year.

Even within this group, though, there are a few players who could really see their future diverge into one of two dramatically different paths solely based on what they do over the next 17 games. Let's open things up there. Here are 23 people around the NFL with the most to gain or lose in 2026.

C.J. Stroud, QB, Houston Texans

I'll start with the player who might have a wider range of outcomes heading into the season than anyone. There aren't many candidates in any given year who have a shot at coming out of the campaign as the highest-paid player in NFL history. But Stroud has the potential to be that player if things go right. There's also a world where things go south and he's competing for his job -- or on another roster altogether -- in 2027.

In a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately sports universe, Stroud's disastrous postseason has dominated offseason discussion around the fourth-year pro. Turning the ball over seven times (and being lucky to avoid more) in two games will do that. Texans fans will look at what the Seahawks did on the other side of the bracket, with a dominant defense and a quarterback who avoided turning the ball over at all in three games, and rue what happened in January. Between teams such as the Chiefs and Ravens missing the playoffs altogether, and the Broncos showing up in the AFC Championship Game without their starting quarterback, the 2025 season might go down as a missed opportunity for the Texans.

The Texans should feel like Super Bowl contenders again in 2026, given that they return virtually everyone of note on an elite defense, but there's unquestionable anxiety about Stroud. Perhaps that's unwarranted. Stroud posted a 61.7 QBR during the 2025 regular season, which was good for 11th in the league, ahead of quarterbacks such as Trevor Lawrence and Bo Nix. He did that with inconsistent offensive line play and a moribund run game, issues that have plagued Houston throughout Stroud's first three seasons in the NFL.

My concern is that those issues haven't really been resolved. General manager Nick Caserio has churned through running back and offensive line changes yet again this offseason, but there are still legitimate questions about the sort of help Stroud will receive. Veterans Braden Smith and Wyatt Teller haven't been able to carve out starting roles, and Smith could miss a few weeks with a plantar fascia injury. New lead back David Montgomery is moving from one of the most run-friendly offenses in the league to one of its least in terms of expected yards per carry. And wideout Jayden Higgins is already out for the year after tearing an ACL, leading the Texans to trade for Kayshon Boutte, who will have to learn the offense on the fly.

That might be the most realistic shift between the Stroud some saw as a rookie and the one who hasn't significantly built on that impressive debut campaign. He needs help. Stroud might not be able to single-handedly propel the offense forward in the way that the league's true high-end quarterbacks can. That rookie year was built on an unsustainable interception rate (1.0%) and an impressive penchant for picking up chunks of yardage (8.2 yards per attempt). Stroud hasn't been close to either number since then.

The 2024-25 version of Stroud is still a very solid starter, and I'd argue he hasn't gotten much support, but that's a different player with a different ceiling from the one who immediately propelled the Texans into contention in 2023. There's nothing wrong with this version of Stroud, and if the Texans haven't resolved the infrastructure issues surrounding him this offseason, it's where Stroud is likely to settle by the end of the 2026 season. But if the run game finally gets going, I still believe Stroud has another level, and a season like his 2023 campaign might be enough to earn the young QB the biggest contract in NFL history.

If the postseason issues linger into the 2027 season and the Texans disappoint, would the Texans be willing to consider what life looks like without Stroud on what could be a franchise-limiting second contract? The difference between those two scenarios might be $100 million or more in guaranteed money.

George Pickens, WR, Dallas Cowboys

Prove it. That was the mantra for Pickens heading into the 2025 season, after the Steelers clearly decided that they didn't want to move forward with their mercurial wideout on a significant contract extension. Pittsburgh dealt Pickens to the Cowboys for a Day 2 pick, and with a major upgrade at quarterback, he produced a career season. Pickens set career highs in receptions (93), receiving yards (1,429) and touchdowns (nine), earning his first trip to the Pro Bowl.

Prove it again. The Cowboys also weren't willing to sign Pickens to a long-term contract after the season, instead using the franchise tag to retain his services on a one-year, $27.3 million pact. Were the Cowboys concerned about their ability to keep Pickens motivated? Were they unwilling to commit significant money to a second receiver given what they're already paying Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb? Or did they just not believe that Pickens' 2025 season represented what he'll do moving forward?

Some combination of the three might be true, but if Pickens can produce a repeat season, it won't matter. The Cowboys spent heavily to fix their defense this offseason, and they might not be interested in a second franchise tag for Pickens in 2027, which would cost more than $32 million. Hitting unrestricted free agency as a 26-year-old wide receiver could be a massive opportunity for Pickens, who would potentially be the best player available.

Baker Mayfield, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The "Baker Mayfield Rule" holds that the veteran quarterback's performance is inversely correlated with how much confidence the public has in his ability. More doubt, more success. As soon as Mayfield started earning consideration as an MVP candidate around the midway point of the 2025 season, his performance cratered, taking Tampa Bay's season along for the ride.

Are the Bucs testing this corollary by refusing to come to terms with the pending 2027 unrestricted free agent on a contract extension? He unquestionably exceeded the initial expectations on him when he joined Tampa Bay to compete with Kyle Trask for the starting job. Mayfield hasn't missed a start in three years, he won a playoff game over the Eagles in 2023, and he ranks 14th in QBR over his run with the Bucs, between quarterbacks such as Jared Goff (12th) and Trevor Lawrence (16th). Goff makes $53 million per year, while Lawrence is at $55 million. You can understand why Mayfield wants to be in a ballpark with his fellow former first overall picks, and given cap inflation since those deals were signed, pushing for $60 million doesn't seem like an unreasonable suggestion.

The Bucs don't seem interested in reaching that price tier on a multiyear deal. The franchise tag at quarterback projects to come in at $50 million in 2027, which means they could franchise their starter next year and even go to $60 million in 2028 without making a long-term commitment.

You can understand why Mayfield, having been led astray by the Browns and Panthers, would want the affirmation and security afforded by that sort of multiyear guarantee. Of course, a player is worth that much in the NFL only if another team is willing to pay that much, and it remains to be seen whether Mayfield could land that sort of contract on the open market. We've seen teams such as the Cardinals and Dolphins pull the ripcord early on deals for Kyler Murray and Tua Tagovailoa when they've been able to manage only solid production at substantial prices.

There will be organizations angling for Arch Manning, Dante Moore and other options at the top of next year's draft, but if a team such as the Steelers isn't drafting high enough to land one of the top prospects, will it be willing to pay north of $50 million per season to lock in Mayfield? His 2026 production might determine whether that's a realistic path.

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Is this Baker Mayfield's final season with the Bucs?

Kyler Murray, QB, Minnesota Vikings

Murray is playing on a one-year, $1.3 million deal with the Vikings this season, but the majority of his 2026 compensation is coming via the Cardinals, who are paying their former franchise starter $36.8 million even after releasing him this spring. He will be an unrestricted free agent after the season, and unlike Mayfield -- the quarterback he succeeded with Oklahoma -- Murray has a no-tag clause that ensures the Vikings can't use the franchise tag to keep their Week 1 starter off the market.

Murray has to prove that he can stay healthy and thrive within the context of a new, more popular offensive system. Under Air Raid guru Kliff Kingsbury, the Cardinals built their attack out of the shotgun and pistol for the 5-foot-10 Murray, allowing him to participate in the run game and operate within space while continuously seeing the defense. Many of those principles stuck even after Kingsbury's departure, with Murray in pistol or shotgun about 94% of the time in Arizona.

Though Kevin O'Connell might shift his offense some to account for Murray's unique size and skill set, the Vikings run a more conventional attack and will put him under center more often. There's a question about whether he will be able to see the middle of the field consistently, although I strongly suspect O'Connell's offense won't ask Murray to make throws he'll struggle to identify. And Murray will have to turn his back to the defense for play-action and won't be able to lean into designed runs as a way to freeze edge rushers.

If it works out, Murray should have a career year throwing to one of the league's best sets of receivers. He'll prove he can operate in another style of offense, opening more doors for him around the NFL. And after the Vikings let Sam Darnold walk out the door, it's difficult to imagine that they wouldn't pay a premium to keep their new starter around for years, a price that will be even richer given the leverage Murray holds with his no-tag clause.

If Murray can't stay healthy or isn't a great fit in the offense, well, he's probably looking at his last guaranteed starting role. There will always be interest in a quarterback of Murray's talents, but he'll likely be looking at QB competitions (or a return to the baseball diamond) moving forward if things don't work out in 2026.

David Blough, OC, Washington Commanders

Declan Doyle, OC, Baltimore Ravens

Sean Mannion, OC, Philadelphia Eagles

Let's touch on that offensive shift, which involves three young offensive assistants around the NFL. O'Connell is about to ask his quarterback the same question that these assistants will of theirs, but as a highly regarded head coach, he's not on the same sort of hot seat that any coordinator is in a given season.

The Commanders (Jayden Daniels), Ravens (Lamar Jackson) and Eagles (Jalen Hurts) have three successful quarterbacks who have thrived working out of the shotgun or pistol and made a meaningful impact moving the ball with their legs on designed quarterback runs. And to some extent, those three teams are going to ask their quarterbacks to do something different in 2026 by operating from under center.

I'll write more about this early in the year, but there are a few reasons teams want to make the switch. Operating primarily out of the shotgun or pistol limits your run game and the range of calls you can make on the ground, tells that make life easier for opposing defenses. Building a more diverse run game creates a more dangerous play-action attack, and the ability to attack the second and third levels over the middle of the field remains one of the best ways to pick up chunks of yardage for any offense. Taking those quarterbacks out of the designed run game might also help to keep them healthy for full seasons, something all three have struggled with at times.

At the same time, these quarterbacks will be asked to play in a fundamentally different way from under center. Jackson was in a more conventional offense during his time at Louisville, but he has shredded teams out of read concepts in the run game, which has also created running lanes for Derrick Henry. Daniels' ability to pick up yardage with his legs in key spots was essential for the Commanders as they sustained drives on third and fourth downs in 2025. And Hurts has three under-center dropback completions in his entire pro career so far.

It's a big bet by three teams with quarterbacks who have already proved themselves as successful without needing to go under center very often. If those bets work out, Blough, Doyle and Mannion could be in line to earn head-coaching consideration as early as next offseason. If not, well, the world isn't very forgiving to young playcallers. Mannion is the fourth Eagles coordinator in four years. Klint Kubiak had three single-season stints as a coordinator before landing his head-coaching gig with the Raiders. If things go wrong, all three teams could be pursuing new options and moving their quarterbacks back out from under center in 2027.

Joey Porter Jr., CB, Pittsburgh Steelers

Are the Steelers going to let one of their best young players leave in free agency? Porter was the first pick on Day 2 of the 2023 draft and quickly emerged as the type of high-end young cornerback the Steelers had been struggling to find. The second-generation Steelers defender has allowed a 71.2 passer rating as a pro, including just one touchdown over his first three seasons combined. The Steelers have an excellent pass rush, which makes life easier for cornerbacks, but Porter looks like one of the league's best young players at the position.

After a run of signings at cornerback, though, the Steelers don't appear to be in a hurry to pay him. With Porter being one year away from unrestricted free agency, the Steelers have yet to come to terms with him on a new deal, even as they've locked up the likes of Keeanu Benton and Nick Herbig in recent months. Porter is likely looking for north of $30 million per season, while the Steelers can point to a relatively team-friendly franchise-tag situation. General manager Omar Khan could tag Porter in 2027 ($23.2 million) and even in 2028 ($27.7 million) without needing to get close to that $30 million figure on a multiyear deal.

Porter just came off the physically unable to perform list with a back injury. (You can decide whether it might be the same injury teammate Jalen Ramsey battled when he was hankering for a move away from the Jaguars in 2019, an issue that miraculously cleared up on the flight from Jacksonville to Los Angeles after Ramsey was dealt to the Rams.) If Porter can return this year and continue to play at a high level, the Steelers might decide they're better off letting him leave for greener pastures than playing the franchise game with an unhappy player.

Braxton Jones, OT, Chicago Bears

Jones makes an unexpected appearance on this list for the second year in a row. Last year, I wrote that Jones needed to keep his job at left tackle and play well in Ben Johnson's offense to have a chance at a massive contract in free agency. It didn't go well. Jones wasn't 100% to open the season, didn't play well and was benched by the middle of the campaign.

By the end of the year, though, the Bears had another opening at left tackle. Theo Benedet didn't impress in a brief run on Caleb Williams' blindside, leading Johnson to turn to rookie Ozzy Trapilo. While Trapilo played better than his predecessors in a seven-game run to end the season, he tore his patellar tendon in the wild-card win over the Packers, ending his season.

Needing a short-term solution at left tackle, the Bears then re-signed Jones to a one-year, $5 million deal, and he looks like the favorite to start there ahead of Benedet and Trapilo in Week 1. Trapilo will eventually regain the starting job once healthy, but Jones is essentially on display for the league's other 31 teams for as long as he's on the field at left tackle in Chicago.

Would he have a big market in free agency? Two years ago, middling (Dan Moore Jr., Titans) and inexperienced (Jaylon Moore, Chiefs) left tackles earned significant contracts in free agency. After those deals disappointed, the league as a whole collectively shrugged at Packers tackle Rasheed Walker this offseason, leading the three-year starter to sign with the Panthers for a smaller deal than the one Jones signed in Chicago. Given how many teams desperately need left tackle solutions, if Jones can stay healthy and play well, I'd expect him to have a real market in 2027. There's just a lot of road ahead of that scenario.

Shane Steichen, coach, Indianapolis Colts

Chris Ballard, GM, Indianapolis Colts

In what was supposed to be a make-or-break 2025 season for Ballard (and potentially Steichen) in Indianapolis, the Colts somehow did both. Indy's offense was brilliant during the first half of the year, with offseason addition Daniel Jones playing the best football of his entire career. The Colts were in position to land the top seed in the AFC, leading Ballard to send two first-round picks to the Jets for Sauce Gardner, landing Indy a difference-maker at one of its weakest positions.

Just about everything that could have gone wrong from that point forward did. Jones started to struggle with turnovers before tearing his Achilles, ending his season. DeForest Buckner suffered a neck injury in Week 9 and played just one game in the second half. Gardner suited up for just two full games before getting hurt early in the third, causing the star addition to play just 37 snaps over the final six weeks of the year. The Colts hit their bye at 8-2 but lost their final seven games to miss the playoffs entirely.

Indy has won just one playoff game since the end of the 2014 season, so Colts fans are understandably hungry for a sustained run of success. Ballard has shown that he can deliver some of the players that can get the Colts there, but he has yet to adequately replace Andrew Luck. Steichen's offense is a film favorite and can look great for stretches, as it did in 2025, but he hasn't been able to overcome the quarterback issues. With the stars returning from injuries and nominal top wideout Alec Pierce battling an ankle issue that had kept him out of practice, do the Colts have enough to finally push through and win another playoff game?

Travis Hunter, CB/WR, Jacksonville Jaguars

Many of the players I've listed here are facing the possibility of earning (or missing out on) a huge contract over the next 12 months. Hunter, in Year 2 of his rookie deal, isn't even eligible to negotiate a new contract until 2028, so that's not the big concern here. He clearly has the ability to make it as a very useful player at the NFL level.

Will that come on both sides of the ball? What happens in 2026 might play a huge role in determining how often we see the 2025 second overall pick mix things up at wide receiver. The Jaguars didn't seem to have a consistent plan for their star addition on defense last year, as Hunter played fewer than 10 snaps twice and more than 40 snaps on two other occasions. He also topped 35 receiving yards just twice in seven starts, including a 101-yard game against the Rams before suffering a season-ending knee injury.

The Jags seem sure that Hunter will play more often at cornerback in 2027. Will he make regular appearances at wide receiver? The organization has suggested that it sees Hunter as a two-way player, but the vast majority of Hunter's snaps during preseason have been at cornerback. The Jaguars are also much better stocked at wide receiver than they are at cornerback, hinting at Hunter playing more often on defense this season.

If Hunter can stay healthy and make an impact on both sides of the ball on a regular basis, his goal of being a two-way player should still be on track. If he gets hurt, or if the Jaguars aren't able to carve out a meaningful role on one side or the other for their most interesting player, he might be something closer to a full-time wide receiver or (more likely) cornerback in 2027.

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Why Travis Hunter should play cornerback full time for Jags

Michael Wilson, WR, Arizona Cardinals

A funny thing happened last year. While Trey McBride produced the sort of dominant season his prior play had hinted could be coming, the Cardinals also stumbled upon a star wide receiver. It just wasn't the one they expected. While Marvin Harrison Jr. disappointed for the second consecutive season and missed time, Wilson quietly emerged as an impactful wide receiver in his absence. In the time Harrison was sidelined, Wilson averaged 2.5 yards per route run, in line with what Nico Collins produces for the Texans.

With Harrison on the field, though, Wilson's 0.9 yards per route run were closer to what replacement-level wideouts such as Xavier Legette and Brandin Cooks produced in 2025. It's probably not a surprise that Wilson would be more productive without his fellow wideout on the field, but going from one of the league's least efficient wideouts to playing at a superstar level is a very dramatic shift. Can Wilson be that player with Harrison and McBride on the field in 2026? It might be a lot to expect, but other teams will be looking to see if there's a No. 1 wideout lurking under the radar on Arizona's offense.

If Wilson can show flashes of the player we saw in those high points of 2025, there could be a very interesting free agent market ahead for him after the season.

Aaron Glenn, coach, New York Jets

It's tough to be a defensive-minded coach when the defense isn't any good. The Jets were a disaster on that side of the ball in 2025, becoming the first team in modern NFL history to finish without an interception. Trading away Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams obviously didn't help matters, but in his first year as a head coach, Glenn struggled with his handling of Justin Fields and the New York media.

Glenn then fired 12 of his assistant coaches after the season, including both of his initial picks at coordinator. The Jets made major talent upgrades over the offseason, including three first-round picks and what could end up as nine new veteran starters across both sides of the football. It was difficult to blame Glenn for what happened last season, but if the Jets don't show major strides of improvement in 2026, it might be tough to find arguments to keep Glenn around for a third season in North Jersey.

JC Latham, OT, Tennessee Titans

Jordan Morgan, OT, Green Bay Packers

Michael Penix Jr., QB, Atlanta Falcons

Chop Robinson, Edge, Miami Dolphins

Dallas Turner, Edge, Minnesota Vikings

Xavier Worthy, WR, Kansas City Chiefs

These are six first-rounders from the 2024 draft who might have their fifth-year options riding on what happens in 2026. Each of the six players would be looking at significant guaranteed money -- potentially north of $20 million -- hitting their contracts in 2028 if the fifth-year option decisions go their way.

There are reasons to believe they each have a shot, although the compliments also often come with qualifiers:

Latham improved over the second half of 2025, although he still looks overmatched at times as a pass blocker.
Morgan was physically overpowered playing guard last season, so the Packers will hope that a move to tackle unlocks his potential.
Penix posted a 57.9 Total QBR in his nine games as a starter in 2025, although the quarterback's year ended with the third torn ACL of his career.
Robinson was wildly productive on a per-snap basis as a rookie in terms of generating pressures, but he wasn't as effective a year ago, and the Dolphins are challenging him to be something more than a situational pass rusher.
Turner had eight sacks in a rotational role filling in on the edge for the Vikings, but he wasn't anywhere near as productive on a snap-by-snap basis as that figure suggests upon closer review.
Worthy had a 157-yard game in the Super Bowl loss to the Eagles in 2024, but his 2025 season was ruined by a shoulder injury, and it's unclear whether he is more than just a downfield burner.

Other first-rounders from 2024 are either locks to have their options picked up (such as Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Joe Alt) or declined (such as J.J. McCarthy, Darius Robinson, Xavier Legette). These six land firmly in the middle. I'm still optimistic that they can each end up on the right side of the ledger, but there's some convincing to be done.

Cameron Heyward, DT, Pittsburgh Steelers

Cameron Jordan, Edge, New Orleans Saints

Khalil Mack, Edge, Los Angeles Chargers

Let's finish with three players who are competing for something entirely different: their legacies. Heyward, Jordan and Mack have already established themselves as three of the best defensive linemen of their generation. While they would each love to win a Super Bowl before they retire, the primary task left ahead for these three defenders in what might be their final year of professional football is finalizing their respective cases for the Hall of Fame.

When I looked at each team's Hall of Fame options earlier this summer, I estimated that Mack has narrowly already done enough to get in, while Heyward and Mack are on the cusp of ensuring their enshrinement. I'd argue that all three are close, and that you could make cases for each to either already be in or just short of the level needed to guarantee a trip to Canton one day.

One way to end that debate is to put an exclamation point on each of their respective careers. One more productive season would probably be enough to complete each player's résumé. Heyward was a second-team All-Pro last season, while Jordan racked up 10.5 sacks in a rotational role for the Saints. Mack made three consecutive Pro Bowls between 2022 and 2024. Each of these guys can still go. If they can hit those heights one more time, these three defensive stalwarts can start getting measured for their gold jackets.

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