China threat erodes Japanese anger over U.S. bases ahead of vote

A closely fought election on a southern Japanese island cluster is highlighting a growing acceptance among younger voters in Japan for a stronger military to counter threats from China.

For decades, voters in Okinawa have bristled over hosting the bulk of America’s military facilities in Japan on their subtropical island chain known for its long lifespans and white beaches. Service members have occasionally committed serious crimes, and noise pollution remains constant. A Marine Corps air base in Ginowan City is a particular source of ire.

But ahead of voters going to the polls on Sunday across the prefecture that stretches toward Taiwan, anger over the American bases is no longer dominating the debate. Instead, as Chinese jets and drones buzz around Okinawa, the calculation is changing.

Tokyo is already moving military assets to the southern islands, including missile bases, ammunition storage sites and radar facilities. Local mayors have largely been supportive, and a victory for Koja would aid that process. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi last November said that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be an existential crisis for Japan, implying its military may become involved.

“The fact that the security environment around Okinawa has become more severe is something we can’t help but acknowledge,” said Genta Koja, a 42-year-old challenger backed by Takaichi’s ruling party. Koja is running neck-and-neck against the incumbent, according to local polls.

“We have to have the ability to defend ourselves and deter aggression,” Koja said in an interview at his campaign office in the city of Naha earlier this week.

The Okinawa vote is the latest litmus test for Takaichi’s push to persuade the Japanese public that building a more assertive military with U.S. support is vital for standing up to rising threats. It’s a view gaining traction not just in the prefecture of 1.47 million people but also among younger voters across Japan, who in February helped propel her to the biggest single-party post-war triumph in a general election.

While there remains a strong culture of peace activism in Okinawa, the site of some of the most devastating fighting in World War II, Chinese military aggression near Taiwan has brought home the risks. When Beijing launched missiles over the chip hub in 2022, one landed inside Japan’s exclusive economic zone south of an island in Okinawa prefecture.

At a rally for the challenger on Tuesday, one supporter said near-daily scrambles by Japanese fighter jets from Okinawa’s main airport to monitor approaching Chinese military aircraft showed the dangers.

“We should work with the national government on issues such as defense and dealing with China to make things better for Okinawa,” said 43-year-old Ryuji Tabata, a self-employed resident of central Okinawa.

The relationship between Tokyo and Okinawa has long been complex. The island chain was only formally absorbed into Japan in 1879 and it was occupied by the U.S. after World War II. That legacy left the prefecture providing about 70% of the land used exclusively in Japan by American military facilities.

Frustrations over the U.S. presence have crystallized around the relocation of the Futenma Marine Corps base, which sits amid the heavily urbanized city of Ginowan. Two decades ago, U.S. and Japanese officials settled on a new site in the Henoko coastal area. Locals fought back, wanting it removed from the archipelago entirely.

Current Gov. Denny Tamaki, who is seeking a third term, remains opposed to the relocation of the Marine Corps base in Okinawa, but has dialed down references to base issues in stump speeches after exhausting all legal avenues to prevent the move. Instead, he’s focused on his own record.

“The economy is showing extremely strong growth,” Tamaki, the son of a U.S. Marine father and an Okinawan mother, earlier this week proclaimed to a small crowd near a major shopping mall. Rising tourism numbers and revenue, along with a record investment budget for fiscal 2026, were all achievements he touted.

Tamaki didn’t respond to requests for an interview.

Koja says he’d support the plan to keep the U.S. Marine Corps base in Okinawa as the quickest way to close the Futenma facility, but would also press for other parts of Japan to share more of the burden of bases.

One recent poll suggests Koja has a slight lead over Tamaki. A win for the challenger would provide rare political alignment in Okinawa for Takaichi, whose ruling party won all four seats in the prefecture for the first time in the Lower House of parliament election earlier this year.

Views among younger Japanese in Okinawa are less shaped by the legacy of U.S. military forces on the archipelago after World War II and more by their perception of the threat from China as well as economic concerns, said Michael Bosack, director of the Parley Policy Institute.

“The circumstances have changed significantly,” he said.

Armed Chinese coast guard ships that routinely patrol near uninhabited islands administered by Japan as part of Okinawa but also claimed by Beijing are just one example of that shift.

A poll taken by the local newspaper Okinawa Times and national daily Asahi Shimbun on Sept. 5 and 6 showed 45% of Okinawans supported the buildup of Japanese military forces in the archipelago, compared with 34% that opposed. Among respondents in their 40s, the support rate was highest at 69%.

Across Japan, younger citizens are more likely to support a strong military. Earlier this year, a survey of Japanese age 17 to 19 found that the military, known as the Self-Defense Forces, overtook the country’s pacifist constitution among factors respondents viewed as underpinning peace, reversing their ranking in a similar survey in 2023.

Like Tamaki, Koja has also prioritized economic issues in his campaign and pledged to try to double incomes and turn Okinawa into a healthcare and cosmetics hub. While known for having one of the world’s longest lifespans, Okinawa also has the lowest average income level among all Japanese prefectures.

At a rally for Tamaki, one supporter said he hadn’t felt the benefits of Okinawa’s growing economy but praised the incumbent for doing a good job of fighting for resources from the central government.

“He always takes the perspective of Okinawans and doesn’t waver from it,” said Asanori Tsukayama, a 65-year-old self-employed local.