Andy Burnham 'turns back' Zack Polanski's Green tide in London with Labour to get 52 MPs, says poll

Sagal Abdi-Wali and Zack Polanski

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The Greens would fail to win any MPs despite the surge of support for them at the May local elections, the poll suggests.

Some previous surveys have suggested the Greens could win as many as 21 seats in London.

Sammy McDonald, of More in Common, said: “The ‘Burnham bounce’ in London may have held back the Green challenge for now.

“But the challenges to Labour’s marginal seats across the capital, and the progressive challenge across Inner London, remain.”

“The Green Party are in second place in 21 seats across the capital and could still benefit if Burnham’s hold on the Left falters.”

Kensington and Bayswater MP Joe Powell would retain his seat, according to the poll

UK Parliament

Labour would stlll be down seven seats in the capital, compared to the July 2024 general election.

But it was set to lose 11 MPs, according to the survey in the summer.

The poll shows Labour holding on in Kensington and Bayswater, and Finchley and Golders Green against the Tories.

The Conservatives would gain five seats, up one from July, taking them to 14.

They would win Chelsea and Fulham, Hendon, Cities of London and Westminster, Uxbridge and South Ruislip, and Bexleyheath and Crayford, all from Labour.

Nigel Farage’s party has plunged in popularity in the last year

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The July poll had Reform gaining five MPs in the city.

Defence Secretary Wes Streeting would lose his Ilford North seat to an independent, according to the poll.

The survey is MRP research (multi-level regression and post-stratification) which is based on large-scale polling of sections of society and extrapolating to get constituency level results.

So, it does not take into account the impact of individual MPs or other local factors.

Ilford North MP Wes Streeting would lose his seat, according to the poll

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Jeremy Corbyn would keep his Islington North seat.

The Liberal Democrats would retain their current six constituencies in south west London.

Reform UK would win 147 seats, the Conservatives 125 and the Liberal Democrats 63.

Such a result would be a dramatic shift from the July poll when Reform was projected to win 293 seats and Labour just 110.