Britain could run out of gas this winter, Ofgem warns

Published: 23:53 BST, 22 October 2026 | Updated: 00:00 BST, 23 October 2026

The UK could run out of gas this winter if demand peaks and supplies are hit, the energy regulator warned yesterday.

Ofgem said gas supply resilience has been reduced by falling North Sea reserves and a reduction in imports. It came after Jonathan Brearley, the most senior energy department civil servant, admitted he could not guarantee the lights wouldn't go out.

Ofgem said: 'Without intervention, Britain could face a negative supply margin... involving extremely high gas demand on a 1-in-20 cold weather day [a day so cold Britain would only be expected to have one every 20 years] and the loss of the single largest element of gas infrastructure. The position could become more constrained in future.'

It also said it had approved a gas agreement with Belgium.

Approval of drilling in the Jackdaw field in the North Sea is set to increase gas production over the winter. 

But Tory energy spokesman Andrew Bowie said: 'Sneaked out by Ofgem, a warning for the first time ever they cannot guarantee demand will be met.' 

He added it was 'utterly outrageous' that the proposed solution was to pay other countries to import more of their gas.

Jonathan Brearley, the most senior energy department civil servant, has admitted he can't guarantee the UK won't run out of gas this winter if demand peaks and supplies are hit

Approval of drilling in the Jackdaw field in the North Sea will increase gas production over the winter (Pictured: the Jackdaw gas production platform in the North Sea)

It comes as the Prime Minister was urged to go further in opening up North Sea drilling today after the Jackdaw gas project finally received approval. 

Earlier this week, Andy Burnham defended the decision in the Commons this lunchtime despite a backlash from the Labour Left, Greens and environmental groups.

But Tory leader Kemi Badenoch insisted that now he had accepted that the move bolsters 'energy security' he should allow more gas and oil licences. 

The message was echoed by Donald Trump, who took to Truth Social to praise 'great news' and said the UK should go 'full blast'. 

'The UK has started drilling in the North Sea, one of the greatest and most prosperous areas of OIL in the World. They should go FULL BLAST!!! This will make the UK very wealthy again,' the president said.  

The Jackdaw project was approved by the previous Conservative government in 2022 but was delayed after a legal challenge by Greenpeace, leaving Labour ministers to decide whether drilling should go ahead. 

Tory leader Kemi Badenoch has said the Prime Minister should allow more gas and oil licences

Downing Street insists a 2024 manifesto pledge against new developments in the North Sea does not apply, as the site was already earmarked.

It is expected to increase domestic gas production by around 6 per cent at its peak, safeguard hundreds of jobs and provide an estimated £2.9billion economic boost.

Tax revenues from North Sea oil and gas will also be funnelled into a new energy wealth fund, backed with an initial £2billion, which will be used to invest in renewable and low carbon projects.

Energy Secretary Miatta Fahnbulleh accepted on Wednesday the development would contribute towards climate change, and said it would not bring down gas prices.

But she stressed it is 'much better' to use domestically produced gas than import it.

The Cabinet minister also appeared to hint a second project at Rosebank might not be greenlit, suggesting that oil was less relevant to domestic energy issues.

Ms Fahnbulleh told BBC Radio Scotland of the looming Rosebank decision: 'Each project we have got to take on their own merits and I've got to look at them case by case in isolation.

'But they are two very difference projects. Jackdaw is producing gas that predominantly is used in the domestic market, Rosebank is a different proposition because it is oil that is exported.

'So I'll look at it against a series of tests and we'll make the judgment on that at the right point. But the decisions are very different and it's important that they remain separate.'