Melaka battle lines remain fluid as parties struggle with electoral pacts

KUALA LUMPUR: The battle lines for the Melaka election remain fluid as major political blocs struggle to seal electoral pacts, with analysts saying unresolved differences could result in multi-cornered contests if parties ultimately fail to reach agreements.

International Islamic University Malaysia political scientist Dr Syaza Shukri said the prospects of cooperation appeared to be diminishing, despite some of the larger parties having stronger incentives to seek electoral partners.

"It looks like the odds of them working with each other are falling. Interestingly, the larger parties appear to be the ones more keen on cooperation.

"I think this has to do with BN and PH wanting to retain, and be seen to retain, their hold on power," she told the New Straits Times.

Syaza said Pas appeared relatively comfortable with either cooperating with BN or contesting independently, while BN leaders in Melaka had from the outset appeared inclined towards going solo.

She said PH, meanwhile, may see value in working with Bersatu, but Bersatu could calculate that it had little to lose by contesting on its own.

Syaza said, however, a fragmented contest should not automatically be interpreted as an easy path to victory for BN.

"BN, specifically Umno, would have to compete against Pas and also Bersatu for the Malay votes," she said, adding that BN had won several seats in the 2021 Melaka election by majorities of fewer than 1,000 votes, meaning even relatively small shifts in support could prove significant.

Universiti Malaya political analyst Dr Tawfik Yaakub said the possibility of parties contesting separately had become more realistic, particularly as negotiations involving several blocs remained unresolved.

"If BN, PH, Bersatu and Pas eventually move separately, the Melaka election could become a highly fragmented multi-cornered contest.

"The key consequence would be vote splitting, particularly in marginal and mixed seats where relatively small shifts in support could determine the outcome," he said.

Tawfik said BN would enter the election with the advantages of incumbency, stronger machinery and a record in government to defend.

PN, meanwhile, could attract Malay protest votes, while PH remained relatively stronger in urban and mixed constituencies.

He said cooperation between BN and PN could reduce competition for Malay votes, while a PH-Bersatu arrangement could help PH broaden its Malay support base, although such a pact could create complications among sections of PH's traditional supporters.

Tawfik said Bersatu would also have to weigh the risks of contesting independently.

"For Bersatu, going solo would test its organisational strength and whether it can retain voters without relying on a broader coalition structure.

"The same applies to PH and BN, with each party having to demonstrate the strength of its machinery, candidate appeal and core support base," he added.

The uncertainty comes as all major parties have at various points floated the possibility of contesting the Melaka polls on their own, even as negotiations over possible cooperation continue.

Earlier, Bersatu secretary-general Datuk Seri Mohamed Azmin Ali said no agreement had been reached with PH.

Umno secretary-general Datuk Dr Asyraf Wajdi Dusuki, meanwhile, said that BN could not force PH into an electoral partnership, but stressed that the coalition remained open to cooperation and was still in discussions with other parties.