Israel, Turkey maneuver toward potential clash over influence in Syria - analysis

Israel’s recent airstrike on Syria forms part of a larger context of tensions between Israel and Turkey over Syria. Some Israeli officials believe that there could be a future clash in Syria.

This kind of rhetoric has led to predictions in Jerusalem that there will be a war either with Syria or possibly with both Syria and Turkey. The argument is that Syria is dominated by a right-leaning Sunni Muslim government.

For Israel’s critics of Syria, the perception is that Damascus is led by “jihadists,” and these are allied with Turkey’s ruling AKP party. The AKP has roots in the Muslim Brotherhood.

Therefore, the perception in Jerusalem is that Israel potentially faces a Muslim Brotherhood axis that will replace the Iranian-led axis. This “Sunni” threat is increasingly being discussed.

Israel's evolving policy in Syria

Rhetoric is one thing. Action is another. The bombing of Syria is not entirely new. Israel carried out thousands of airstrikes before the fall of the Assad regime in December 2024.

Those strikes were aimed at preventing Iranian entrenchment in Syria. This was called the Campaign Between the Wars. It became a campaign of precision strikes.

This showed the limitations of using air power. The strikes didn’t stop Iran’s weapon smuggling to Hezbollah via Syria. All the airstrikes did was reduce the threat.

Israel didn’t entirely learn the lessons of the Campaign Between the Wars. Instead, the policy was extended after the fall of the Assad regime.

Instead of doing outreach to the new government in Damascus, Jerusalem preferred to continue attacks on Syria and to extend Israeli control on the ground into a buffer zone along the border.

Tensions grew in 2025. Israel said it would protect the Druze minority in southern Syria. This led to some Druze leaders believing they could potentially create an independent Druze state in Suwayda.

Damascus, Amman, and others oppose this initiative. However, Israel’s mission creep in Syria, from fighting Iran to attacking the new government to backing the Druze, has led to an open-ended policy that could grow to also include clashes with Turkey.

Turkey's growing role in post-Assad Syria

Why would there be clashes with Turkey? Turkey has been a major supporter of the new government in Damascus. Ankara had been backing some Syrian rebels before the fall of Assad.

However, Ankara cynically used these rebels to fight Kurdish forces. After the fall of Assad, Turkey seized the opportunity to work with Ahmed al-Shara’a, the president of Syria. Turkey’s policy was joined by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and other countries in embracing Damascus.

This led to meetings between US President Donald Trump and Shara’a. Trump has embraced the new Syrian leadership. Turkey is a NATO ally of the US, and Qatar is a major non-NATO ally. Trump is also close with Saudi Arabia’s leadership.

The US has opposed Israel’s strikes on Syria in the past. In fact, after strikes in Damascus in the summer of 2025, the Trump administration sought to prevent further tensions. Trump wants Syria to be stable.

The administration worked toward trilateral meetings between Syria, Israel, and the US. However, the White House has also had to juggle policies in Gaza and Lebanon, where the US is working on peace deals. The US can’t be involved on all of Israel’s borders. This leaves room for tensions to grow with Turkey in Syria.

Israel’s current leadership wants to send Ankara a message that Turkey should not expand its role. Israel’s foreign ministry has often condemned Turkey’s role in northern Syria. Turkey invaded northern Syria several times since 2016. After the fall of Assad, Turkey has shifted its role to back the new government. Israel’s main concern appears to be that Turkey may rehabilitate strategic sites, such as air bases.

Israel’s Prime Minister's Office said on August 18. “Israel and Syria agreed to a status quo in security matters, which Syria was on the verge of breaching by permitting Turkish troops to deploy at an airbase near Aleppo. Israel repeatedly warned Syria that such a deployment would pose a threat to Israel's security. Syria chose to ignore these warnings.”

Meanwhile, Israel’s Chief of the General Staff went to the Security Zone in Syria on August 19. “We see what is happening and are monitoring the changes on the Syrian front; we will not allow hostile forces to establish themselves on our borders, and we will know how to use our operational capabilities precisely where and when needed,” he said.

“We must prevent the development of terrorist threats, while also preventing the formation of a significant military threat on our borders”

Zamir added that “we are still in a multi-front war, alert and operating in all arenas, escalation can develop in any one of them, and we must remain in constant readiness for that.”

Ankara seeks to downplay potential confrontation

Turkey is currently trying to downplay the potential clash. Turkish media views the Israeli strike as being related to Israel’s upcoming elections. Turkey’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has been at the forefront of discussions about Israel.

Turkey’s pro-government Daily Sabah noted last week that “Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s remarks in recent days can be regarded as one of the strongest warnings Turkey has delivered to Israel to date.

Fidan warned Israel not to undermine the Gaza agreement, stating that Türkiye, Qatar and Egypt could take “radical measures” if Israel attempts to derail the agreement. His remarks offer an important indication of how Ankara intends to approach the Gaza issue in the period ahead.”

A recent article at Al-Hurra noted that Israel is watching Hakan Fidan as a potential successor to Turkey’s long-time leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

The challenge for Israel and Turkey in Syria is that both countries are led by the same leadership now for most of the last two decades. Israel is led by a right-leaning nationalist and religious government, and so is Turkey.

While Israel’s government is a coalition, and Turkey’s is primarily led by the AKP, the reality is that both countries have a natural tendency to see the region in Manichean terms.

Erdogan’s anti-Israel comments go back many years. The clash over the Mavi Marmara, a large ship used by Turkish activists to try to reach Gaza in 2010, is one example of how Turkey-Israel relations soured. Another reason was the 2009 war in Gaza. Ankara has also hosted Hamas leaders in the past.

Could Israel and Turkey clash in Syria?

There is now a sense that a clash in Syria is inevitable. Turkey is maneuvering with caution. It doesn’t want to fight Israel yet. Damascus is very pragmatic. It doesn’t want a clash with Israel.

However, Jerusalem's rhetoric is clear. Leading voices expect a war with Syria. Others view Turkey as the “new Iran.” This means that even though Iran is not yet defeated, and neither are Hezbollah and Hamas, Turkey could be dragged into a potential conflict.

On the ground on the Golan, the view is more tactical. As Israel’s Chief of Staff noted, the goal is to prevent threats reaching the border. This is part of the post-October 7 tactic of creating buffer zones in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria. Turkey is nowhere near the Golan yet.

However, the messaging to Ankara is similar to the messaging to Iran before the fall of the Assad regime. Israel wants to prevent foreign forces from entrenching in Syria. Syria is now seen as Israel’s “near abroad” and basically an area where Israel wants a zone of influence or even control.

This will likely also mean Jerusalem demanding freedom of action in Syria’s skies. It is unclear when Turkey will seek to extend its own zone of influence. However, if Ankara asserts its right to do so, a clash could follow.

Israel de-conflicted with Russia in Syria in the Assad era. In fact, Israeli officials went to Russia in 2015 when Russia intervened in Syria to back Assad during the civil war. Not everything worked in Syria with Russia.

Syrian air defense shot down a Russian military aircraft while trying to strike at Israeli planes in 2018. This led to a crisis. Russia and Turkey also had several small crises in Syria.

US could play a role in reducing tensions

It remains to be seen how Turkey and Israel will manage their policy in Syria. The US could help broker a deal and reduce tensions. However, the US is focused also on Iran, Gaza, Lebanon and many other issues in the region.

US Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack, who is also envoy to Syria and Iraq, noted on X/ Twitter on August 18 “We are deeply concerned that the confirmed Israeli airstrikes on Abu al-Duhur Airbase constitute an unnecessary escalation that does not advance regional stability. The Al-Sharra government has neither adopted a predatory posture nor maintained proxy forces. It has, in fact, repeatedly indicated a preference for de-escalation with Israel. The United States has in the past, and will continue in the future, to host discussions to encourage diplomatic cadence over kinetic frustration for both nations.”

He added that “the United States continues to believe that restraint and engagement offer the more constructive course. We encourage all parties to prioritize logical discourse over further military incidents.”