Alberta referendum tallies reveal rural-urban divide on ‘the 9’
Elections Alberta officials are finishing counting referendum ballots, but the results so far suggest Albertans in rural areas seem to hold different views on immigration and constitutional fights than those living in urban areas.
Support for immigration, constitutional questions stemmed mostly from rural ridings
Nicholas Frew · CBC News
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Elections Alberta officials are finishing counting referendum ballots, but the results so far suggest Albertans in rural areas seem to hold different views on immigration and constitutional fights than those living in urban areas.
The agency confirmed its unofficial count Saturday night. Results suggest more Albertans overall support the proposals in questions 1 to 5, which focused on immigration and access to services for non-permanent residents, and oppose the proposals in questions 6 to 9, which pertained to various constitutional issues.
Most support for any of the questions that have come to be known as “the nine” — because so much focus was on Question 10, which asked about Alberta’s place in Canada — came from rural ridings, while voters in Calgary and Edmonton were more divided, if not firmly against them.
“We've long seen urban-rural divide over things like immigration, and that partly tracks with the fact that … rural places tend to be more conservative than urban places,” Feodor Snagovsky, an associate professor of political science at the University of Alberta, told CBC News, adding that those on the political right tend to have “more restrictive views” on immigration.
Follow all of our Alberta referendum coverage
Smith scores slim majority on immigration questions, Albertans reject constitutional changes
The immigration questions focused on ideas like requiring voters to prove their Canadian citizenship to cast ballots in provincial elections, the provincial government taking more control of immigration — more of a federal responsibility, historically — and imposing conditions on non-permanent residents’ access to services like health care and education.
The constitutional questions regarded issues like provinces — not the feds — being able to make judicial appointments and trying to abolish the federal Senate.
Given the results so far, political analysts suggest Premier Danielle Smith’s government did not get a strong mandate on the proposals it put forward in the referendum. During an interview with CBC podcast West of Centre Friday, Smith said she believes voters told her government to proceed with caution, but that there is a desire to get more control over economic migration.
The referendum was worth holding, she said, and it showed her that Albertans are more concerned about immigration policy than pursuing constitutional change — and her government will prioritize taking action on those proposed measures.
“People want to be fair, they want to be generous, but we can solve a lot of the problems by focusing our newcomer population on the jobs that are available,” Smith said, adding that someone landing in the province with a well-paying job probably relies less on social services.
“When somebody makes a commitment to being a permanent taxpayer, as a permanent resident, they’ll get the same programs as everyone else. If we can fix that part, then I think it will reduce some of the stress on our health-care and education and other systems.”
When asked about the dissension in Alberta’s two largest cities, Smith argued that most of the jobs that the province needs to attract people from elsewhere to fill are located outside of those centres, thus rural voters might have felt more strongly about immigration.
WATCH | Alberta referendum reveals rural-urban divide for 'the 9':
A rural-urban divide for 'the 9' in Alberta referendum
October 24|
Duration
2:12
Elections Alberta is finalizing the count of referendum ballots, but so far, results suggest rural voters seem to hold different views on immigration and constitutional fights than those in urban areas. CBC’s Nicole Healey has the details.Opposition to immigration in rural areas, at least in part, stems from concerns about Canada’s Temporary Foreign Worker Program, Snagovsky said, adding he believes there is room for a conversation about ensuring employers are using that appropriately.
Moving forward, however, the referendum’s apparent rural-urban divide forces Smith to walk a political tightrope, said Lisa Young, a University of Calgary political science professor.
Most MLAs for the governing United Conservative Party represent rural ridings, but 11 of them represent Calgary ridings. Edmonton’s districts are all represented by the Opposition NDP.
Data suggests Question 5 — about proving Canadian citizenship to vote in provincial elections — was the only one of “the nine” that a majority of voters supported across all UCP-held ridings. But for the rest, some of the UCP’s Calgary ridings — including those held by cabinet ministers like Demetrios Nicolaides and Mike Ellis — either objected to, or narrowly supported, the proposals that were put forward.
“The results of the referendum suggest that [Smith’s] hold on Calgary seats is maybe not as strong as it was in the past, so the viability of her coalition strategy now is in question,” Young said.
The next general election is set for October 2027. For the governing UCP to hold on to power, Young said, the premier must figure out how to maintain rural support, while also appealing to at least some urban Albertans.
Elections Alberta is set to release its official referendum results Thursday, two days after the fall session gets underway in Alberta’s legislature. The provincial government issued a news release Friday that listed multiple issues about which it intends to propose legislation.
Young said she assumes the government has already drafted legislation related to the referendum issues. She said she will be watching for whether the government hesitates to introduce anything because of the referendum results, and if it uses Section 33 of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedom — the notwithstanding clause — to pass certain items.
“It’s going to be telling whether this legislation now comes forward — and in what form,” Young said.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Nicholas Frew is a CBC Edmonton reporter who specializes in producing data-driven stories. Hailing from Newfoundland and Labrador, Frew moved to Halifax to attend journalism school. He has previously worked for CBC newsrooms in Manitoba and Saskatchewan. Before joining CBC, he interned at the Winnipeg Free Press. You can reach him at nick.frew@cbc.ca.
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