The Playbook: Shadow Reports, lineup locks and projected scores for Week 4

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• Mike ClayOct 1, 2026, 07:39 AM ET

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  Mike Clay is a senior writer for fantasy football and the NFL at ESPN. Mike is a member of the FSWA Hall of Fame. His projections power the ESPN Fantasy Football game, and he also appears on "Fantasy Football Now" and the Fantasy Focus Football podcast.

Welcome to The Playbook for Week 4, which kicks off Thursday night with a game between the Steelers and Browns.

This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities, and of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for seasonlong leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.

Additionally, we have folded our Shadow Reports into the game-by-game breakdowns here. Using our play-by-play data, we're able to identify defensive schemes and where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking these WR/CB matchups, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best fantasy guidance each week.

• If you want a more detailed look at some of this data, be sure to check out the weekly Shadow Reports: WR vs. CB Cheat Sheet. You can also take a look at the analysis of each team's strength of schedule as it stood before the season.

All of this advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I'll often mention "shallow" or "deep" leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. "Matchup" is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense.

• DFS values in the charts below (and their relative quality) are provided only for Sunday's main slate, which is why there are no values for games scheduled on days other than Sunday.

(Editor's note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)

PIT-CLE | IND-WAS | NE-BUF | NYJ-CHI | JAX-CIN | ARI-NYG | LAR-PHI | GB-TB
TEN-BAL | DAL-HOU | MIA-MIN | KC-LV | DEN-SF | LAC-SEA | DET-CAR | ATL-NO

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns

Projected score: Steelers 19, Browns 17

Lineup locks: Jaylen Warren

Fantasy scoop: Harold Fannin Jr. busted out with a 7-51-2 receiving line on nine targets in Week 3. The second-year tight end came out slowly with just 21 yards on three targets in Week 1, but improved to a 5-54-0 line on six targets in Week 2 prior to Sunday's big game. Fannin's snaps (85%) and route participation (85%) are up big from last season and his target share (22.0%) is up slightly.

As long as Deshaun Watson continues to play at a passable level, Fannin will be positioned for TE1 fantasy production. He's a fringe top-10 option against a Steelers defense that allowed Mike Gesicki to find the end zone last week.

Over/under: 35.9 (Lowest)
Win probability: Steelers 60% (8th highest)

Indianapolis Colts @ Washington Commanders

Projected score: Colts 26, Commanders 24

Lineup locks: Jonathan Taylor, Josh Downs, Terry McLaurin, Tyler Warren

Fantasy scoop: Keenan Allen put together a 6-63-1 receiving line on nine targets in Week 3. This, after the veteran receiver totaled a 7-37-0 line on 11 targets during Weeks 1-2. Allen certainly enjoyed a boost in usage with Alec Pierce sidelined, but we've seen this story before. In 2025 with the Chargers, Allen averaged a healthy 7.0 targets per game (22.1% share). However, that allowed him only 10.7 fantasy PPG, most of which came in the first half of the season. In fact, prior to Sunday, Allen had gone 12 straight games with under 11 fantasy points.

Allen won't be an ideal WR3 option in most weeks, but he's on the radar against a Washington defense that has allowed the most catches, touchdowns and fantasy points to wide receivers this season.

Over/under: 49.8 (3rd highest)
Win probability: Colts 58% (10th highest)

New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills

Projected score: Bills 28, Patriots 21

Lineup locks: Josh Allen, James Cook III, DJ Moore, Dalton Kincaid

Fantasy scoop: Drake Maye was unable to get back on track in Jacksonville last week and now has just one touchdown pass -- and six interceptions on the season. The 2025 MVP finalist has been held under 210 passing yards in all three games and his efficiency ranks among the worst at the position.

On the plus side, Maye has been dealing with a tough schedule (Seahawks, Steelers, Jaguars) and the slate lightens up moving forward. That includes this week against a Buffalo defense that sits in the top eight in yards, TDs and fantasy points allowed to QBs this season. Additionally, Maye is on pace for 465 rushing yards, which is up slightly from 2025.

Maye's poor play means he belongs glued to benches this week, but he shouldn't be sent to waivers just yet.

Over/under: 49.3 (4th highest)
Win probability: Bills 74% (5th highest)

New York Jets @ Chicago Bears

Projected score: Bears 23, Jets 21

Lineup locks: D'Andre Swift, Garrett Wilson, Luther Burden III

Fantasy scoop: Breece Hall is expected to miss this game, which positions Braelon Allen as New York's lead back. Allen has served as a clear backup throughout his career and hasn't fared particularly well (3.7 YPC, 4.8 YPT), but he's been busy off the bench this season, totaling 19 carries and five targets through three games. The 2024 fourth-round pick is one of the league's bigger backs and figures to handle primary early down and goal line work.

Isaiah Davis will also be involved. While he doesn't have any touches this season, he did rack up 64 touches behind Hall last season and has been effective in a small sample of work over his career (5.6 YPC, 6.2 YPT).

Allen should see enough work to warrant flex consideration against a Bears defense that has struggled against backs this season, including Saquon Barkley on "Monday Night Football."

Over/under: 44.3 (11th highest)
Win probability: Bears 58% (11th highest)

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati Bengals

Projected score: Jaguars 26, Bengals 24

Lineup locks: Chase Brown, Ja'Marr Chase, Parker Washington, Tee Higgins

Fantasy scoop: Bhayshul Tuten just misses the "lineup lock" cut. The second-year back's rushing production has been about as consistent as you'll see (13-66-0, 13-65-1, 15-73-1), but he's benefited quite a bit from game script -- Jacksonville has been ahead or tied on a league-high 97% of offensive snaps.

Tuten continues to rotate with three other backs and, as a result, has played on only 49% of snaps, has handled just 52% of the runs and been limited to only five targets (a 7% share). Tuten's rushing volume and efficiency are enough to keep him in the RB2 mix, but a boost in receiving work will be necessary to get him to the next level.

Over/under: 49.2 (5th highest)
Win probability: Jaguars 57% (12th highest)

Arizona Cardinals @ New York Giants

Projected score: Giants 24, Cardinals 22

Lineup locks: Cam Skattebo, Jeremiyah Love, Malik Nabers, Michael Wilson, Trey McBride, Isaiah Likely

Fantasy scoop: Love was a bit slow out of the gate to begin his career, but the No. 3 overall pick in April's draft is back in the "lineup lock" mix after a big boost in usage and production in Week 3. After playing on 43% of snaps and totaling 95 yards and one touchdown on 25 touches during Weeks 1-2, Love jumped to 63% of snaps and totaled 109 yards (plus one TD) on 26 touches this past Sunday.

It appears that Arizona is ready to lean on Love as its feature back, and he's in a good spot this week against a Giants defense that is allowing 5.1 yards per RB carry this season (third highest).

Over/under: 46.7 (8th highest)
Win probability: Giants 56% (13th highest)

Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles

Projected score: Rams 25, Eagles 22

Lineup locks: Saquon Barkley, Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, DeVonta Smith, Davante Adams

Fantasy scoop: Jalen Hurts is trending in the wrong direction, having followed up a 25-point fantasy effort in Week 1 with a pair of finishes of QB15 or worse against Tennessee and Chicago over the past two weeks. Hurts did throw five TD passes during Weeks 1-2, but he's thrown three INTs over his last two games -- and his lone score against Chicago last week was a desperation "tush push" to end the first half.

Perhaps most concerning here is a lack of a rebound for Hurts in the rushing department. After leading all QBs in carries and rushing scores during each of the 2021-24 seasons, Hurts took a big step back in 2025. Hurts' dip in rushing led to an eighth-place finish in fantasy PPG last season and he's showing signs that he may repeat as no more than a back-end QB1 this year. (He currently sits at only 16-87-1 through three weeks in 2026.)

Especially against a solid Rams defense, Hurts is a fringe starting option this week.

Over/under: 46.5 (9th highest)
Win probability: Rams 59% (9th highest)

Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Projected score: Buccaneers 21, Packers 20

Lineup locks: Bucky Irving, Christian Watson, Matthew Golden

Fantasy scoop: With Baker Mayfield sidelined for roughly three weeks, the Buccaneers will turn to Jalon Daniels. The undrafted rookie handled 45 starts across six seasons at Kansas and, while he plays an aggressive game (a class-high 9.3 aDOT last season) and adds value with his legs (a career 345-1977-23 rushing line), he has a long way to go as a passer (only a 62% completion rate and a class-high 15.3% off-target rate during his career).

Daniels' dual-threat ability makes him a fantasy deep sleeper, but Tampa Bay's passing volume and efficiency are likely to take a sizable hit. Top receiver Emeka Egbuka is on the flex radar against the Packers, but there's a ton of risk here and no other pass catcher should be in lineups.

Over/under: 41.3 (14th highest)
Win probability: Buccaneers 55% (14th highest)

Tennessee Titans @ Baltimore Ravens

Projected score: Ravens 30, Titans 16

Lineup locks: Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers

Fantasy scoop: Mark Andrews makes for a very tricky evaluation. On the one hand, his usage has been excellent, as he's had a target share in the 24-25% range in all three games. In fact, his 24.7% target share for the season is his highest since he was fantasy's No. 4 scoring tight end in 2022. On the other hand, the heavy usage hasn't converted to much fantasy production, as he's turned his 18 targets into only a 13-122-0 receiving line. Andrews has now gone 10 consecutive games below 11.0 fantasy points.

Game scripts will be better at times (Baltimore has been ahead on 65% of its offensive snaps and Jackson is thus just 26th in pass attempts), but this is still a team that will be ahead a lot and will run the ball often. (They're the game-script-adjusted second run-heaviest offense through three weeks).

Andrews is best valued as a fringe TE1 and isn't overly appealing this week against a Titans defense that has allowed a total of only 48 yards on 18 TE targets this season.

Over/under: 45.5 (10th highest)
Win probability: Ravens 91% (2nd highest)

Dallas Cowboys @ Houston Texans

Projected score: Texans 25, Cowboys 25

Lineup locks: Javonte Williams, CeeDee Lamb, Nico Collins, George Pickens

Fantasy scoop: After producing 79 yards and three touchdowns on 23 touches in Week 1, David Montgomery has totaled a mere 70 yards (and zero TDs) on 21 touches during Houston's last two games. Montgomery (37 carries and seven targets on 111 snaps) has struggled badly with efficiency (2.8 YPC), plays a limited role as a receiver (seven targets) and continues to split the Houston backfield with Woody Marks (22 carries and eight targets on 90 snaps).

Montgomery did hit a season-high snap share in Week 3 (65%), but Marks remained plenty involved and handled the team's lone goal line carry. Montgomery is, at best, a fringe RB2 against Dallas.

Over/under: 50.0 (2nd highest)
Win probability: Texans 51% (Lowest)

Miami Dolphins @ Minnesota Vikings

Projected Score: Vikings 26, Dolphins 12

Lineup locks: Kyler Murray, Aaron Jones Sr., Justin Jefferson

Fantasy scoop: De'Von Achane (ACL) is done for the 2026 season, which opens the door for Ollie Gordon II and Jaylen Wright to battle it out for work in the Miami backfield. Wright was sidelined in Week 3, which allowed Gordon to play on 82% of offensive snaps. He wasn't particularly effective (17-41-1 rushing, 3-3-14-0 receiving) and is now averaging an ugly 2.7 yards per carry and 3.8 yards per target on 100 career touches.

Wright, who handled 70-plus touches in both of the past two seasons, had a long look as a lead back in Week 14 last season and delivered 24-107-1 on the ground, but was held without a catch on three targets.

The healthier of the two backs, Gordon is the preferred option of these two for the moment, but neither is a particularly appealing flex in Miami's low-scoring offense and against a Minnesota defense that is allowing 3.1 yards per carry and the third-fewest RB fantasy points.

Over/under: 38.3 (15th highest)
Win probability: Vikings 93% (Highest)

Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders

Projected score: Chiefs 27, Raiders 22

Lineup locks: Patrick Mahomes, Kenneth Walker III, Ashton Jeanty, Rashee Rice, Brock Bowers, Travis Kelce

Fantasy scoop: Rice's usage and production have increased each week of the season and he's found himself right back in the "lineup lock" mix. After underwhelming with a 2-19-1 receiving line on two targets in Week 1, Rice improved to 4-83-0 on six targets in Week 2 before leaping to 7-88-0 on nine targets last week. Rice handled a hefty 39% target share against Miami on Sunday and is enjoying career-high usage in terms of both snaps (79%) and route participation (75%) this season.

The fourth-year receiver is a strong fantasy WR2 against a Las Vegas defense that has yet to allow any WR touchdowns, though that's a bit fluky considering it has surrendered a total of five passing TDs (11th most).

Over/under: 48.5 (6th highest)
Win probability: Chiefs 68% (6th highest)

Denver Broncos @ San Francisco 49ers

Projected score: 49ers 26, Broncos 19

Lineup locks: Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, Mike Evans, Jaylen Waddle, George Kittle

Fantasy scoop: Courtland Sutton's slow start has eliminated him from "lineup lock" consideration. The veteran wideout has been held to an 8-82-0 receiving line on 16 targets and has yet to reach 8.0 fantasy points in any game this season. His 18% target share is his lowest since his rookie season in 2018. On the plus side, his usage was up in Week 3 (23% target share) and he remains busy near the goal line (three end zone targets, third most among WRs). Consider him as no more than a flex.

Over/under: 44.1 (12th highest)
Win probability: 49ers 74% (4th highest)

Los Angeles Chargers @ Seattle Seahawks

Projected score: Seahawks 28, Chargers 16

Lineup lock: Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Fantasy scoop: Omarion Hampton has a pair of touchdowns and sits 10th among RBs in carries this season, but his usage -- combined with a tough Week 4 matchup -- makes him a risky fantasy play. The second-year back has been a nonfactor (almost literally) in the passing game, having totaled just 21 yards on three targets (with both of his catches coming in Week 2). As a result, he's been held below 8.5 fantasy points in two out of three games despite the good rushing production.

Hampton, who played on a season-low 42% of snaps in Week 3, will now face a Seattle defense that has allowed 2.9 yards per carry (second lowest) and the fifth-fewest fantasy points to RBs this season. Hampton is best viewed as a fringe RB2.

Over/under: 43.5 (13th highest)
Win probability: Seahawks 87% (3rd highest)

Detroit Lions @ Carolina Panthers

Projected score: Lions 29, Panthers 27

Lineup locks: Bryce Young, Jahmyr Gibbs, Chuba Hubbard, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Tetairoa McMillan, Jalen Coker, Sam LaPorta

Fantasy scoop: Young fell back to earth last week, but that shouldn't stop you from streaming him here in Week 4. Despite the quiet fantasy day (13.6 points), the 2023 first overall pick still managed 291 passing yards and now leads the NFL in that category through three games.

Young threw three TD passes in both Weeks 1 and 2 and also paces the league in expected passing TDs. We could use more rushing production (3-16-1 this season), but we may not need it this week against a Detroit defense that has allowed the most passing yards and QB fantasy points, as well as the second-most passing TDs (nine). Josh Allen, Geno Smith and Tyler Shough each scored 23-plus points against Detroit this season.

Over/under: 56.0 (Highest)
Win probability: Lions 54% (15th highest)

Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints

Projected score: Saints 26, Falcons 22

Lineup locks: Tyler Shough, Bijan Robinson, Chris Olave, Drake London

Fantasy scoop: Travis Etienne Jr. is expected to miss time, which leaves New Orleans with a three-headed committee featuring Alvin Kamara, Kendre Miller and CJ Donaldson. Kamara figures to lead the group, but considering his lack of production last season (1 TD, 9.7 fantasy PPG) and limited usage this season (63 yards on 24 snaps over two games), the 31-year-old is a long shot to play a "feature back" role.

Instead, Miller (49 yards and one TD on 15 touches in his two games) and Donaldson (9 yards on five touches over three games) will be plenty involved, with Miller being a candidate to lead the group in carries. Kamara is a low-ceiling flex option against an Atlanta defense that has allowed 3.1 yards per carry and the fourth-fewest fantasy points to RBs.

Over/under: 47.7 (7th highest)
Win probability: Saints 62% (7th highest)