[In This Economy] Apocalyptic rains and their economic costs

• Recent heavy rains in the Philippines have led to severe flooding, prompting government work and classes to be suspended in Metro Manila and surrounding provinces, affecting millions and causing significant educational disruptions.
• The ongoing climate crisis is projected to worsen rainfall patterns, potentially leading to a significant decline in the country's GDP by 2040, while issues of corruption in flood control projects exacerbate the situation.
• The education system is particularly hard-hit, with millions of students losing valuable school days, which could result in long-term economic consequences and lower productivity for future generations.

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The rains of the past two weeks have proven apocalyptic, and they are also becoming an increasingly dire economic problem.

On Monday, August 17, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) placed Metro Manila under a red rainfall warning, meaning serious flooding was expected in flood-prone areas.

By noon, Malacañang suspended government work and classes at all levels in Metro Manila and 12 nearby provinces. Schools were told to shift to online learning, after many students and workers had already traveled through flooded roads.

Rightly so, because about a week’s worth of rain was dumped in just 2 hours, from 12 noon to 2 pm that day. From 8 am to 2 pm, the total rain dumped was 201.7 mm, or about 44% of the Tropical Storm Ondoy rains back in 2009.

Before this, government offices and schools had already shifted to suspensions or alternative arrangements on August 5, 13, and 14. On Wednesday, August 19, alternative work and learning arrangements will apply yet again in Metro Manila and 17 provinces.

According to the Office of Civil Defense, about three weeks of monsoon rains and storms had affected 5 million people by August 17, killing at least 26 and leaving nearly 25,000 in evacuation centers.

What do weeklong rains cost an economy already struggling to grow? And how might we fare with climate change only expected to worsen in coming years?

Lost school days

Start with education. The Second Congressional Commission on Education (EDCOM II) found that during school year 2023–2024, 11 million learners lost more than 20 school days, with the National Capital Region losing 27 days and the Cordillera Administrative Region losing 42.

EDCOM’s final report says public schools operate with an average of only about 191 actual class days. Hence, the 27 lost days in Metro Manila were equivalent to 14% of that total. In the Cordilleras, 42 days were equivalent to as much as 22%.

Teachers, parents, and I expect some students are bemoaning the state of affairs. “Wala nang natututunan ang mga bata (Students are no longer learning anything),” one often hears these days. Extra weekday hours and Saturday classes cannot fully compensate for the missed time, and alternative learning is also a weak substitute where electricity, internet access, and devices are unreliable.

EDCOM reported as well that just 17% of students had the gadgets needed for online learning. A government order to move classes online doesn’t magically give every child a laptop and stable internet.

The disruption, in short, falls on a school system already in crisis, with EDCOM II reporting in January that 85% of pupils in Grades 1 to 3 were struggling to read.

And funnily, in parts of Zamboanga City in Mindanao, classes were suspended for the opposite reason: blistering heat of about 41 degrees Celsius. Extreme heat and rains do the same thing: punish children and condemn them to lower education outcomes.

By no means is the damage confined to education. When roads flood, workers arrive late or not at all, shops close, deliveries stall, and government services slow down. In addition, parents must also leave work when children are sent home in the middle of the day. Since work suspensions in private companies are left to management, the result is a patchwork in which schools may close while parents are still expected at work.

Worryingly, in the long run all this spells compounding learning losses, lower productivity, and lower incomes years for future Filipino workers. In a very real sense, then, these school disruptions translate to economic disruptions.

Climate meets corruption

Owing to climate change, PAGASA projects that heavy daily rainfall will become more frequent, while extreme rainfall will increase in Luzon and the Visayas by 2050. (PAGASA defines extreme rainfall as more than 300 millimeters in one day.)

The World Bank also estimates that without adequate climate action and adaptation, Philippine gross domestic product (GDP), or the total value of goods and services we produce, could be as much as 7.6% lower by 2030 and 13.6% lower by 2040. For comparison, the World Bank puts Indonesia’s possible loss at just 1.4% by 2030.

But the damage is not entirely due to climate change. Corrupted public works like flood control projects only make the extreme weather events worse.

Tons of money have been poured on flood control projects. Before the pandemic, Davao City 1st District Representative Paolo Duterte already earmarked billions of pesos (at least P51 billion) on flood control projects—yet Davao City’s floods today remain extremely bad.

Meanwhile, the Marcos administration proposed P174.3 billion for flood control in 2023, P282.5 billion in 2024, and nearly P300 billion in 2025. Since the 2025 State of the Nation Address, though, the government later reviewed 9,855 projects worth more than P545 billion amid allegations of ghost projects, overpricing, and kickbacks.

The 2026 budget removed P263.54 billion in locally funded flood control projects. The budget of the Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH) fell from an initial proposal of P881.31 billion to an enacted P530.89 billion.

Now, for the 2027 budget, the DPWH is still seeking P107.4 billion for flood control. On the one hand, restoring funding is necessary because stopping flood control altogether would be absurd. But before Congress approves a single peso, the government must show exactly what has changed from old bad habits.

Ideally, every project should come from a river-basin master plan and updated hazard map, and not merely a lawmaker’s wish list. Independent engineers should also validate designs and costs before projects enter the national budget, and the government should publish the locations, contractors, beneficial owners, and implementation status of projects.

Congress should also publish every DPWH change made during bicameral deliberations, when the House of Representatives and Senate reconcile their respective budget bills. Maintenance should be funded alongside construction, while schools, roads, drainage systems, and evacuation centers should be designed for the climate we now face.

None of the above is particularly hard. The binding constraint, however, is political will to make sure that flood control projects are not just politicians’ milking cows.

You see, even with worsening climate change, we can be reslient and adaptive if only we spend on the right public goods. But providing the right public goods is a function of who we put in power.

If we keep on voting for bad actors in top positions, then we have no one to blame but ourselves for future climate-related deaths and injuries—on top of the learning and economic losses. – Rappler.com

Jan Carlo “JC” Punongbayan, PhD is an associate professor at the University of the Philippines School of Economics (UPSE). His professional experience includes the Securities and Exchange Commission, the World Bank Office in Manila, the Far Eastern University Public Policy Center, and the National Economic and Development Authority. JC writes a weekly economics column for Rappler.com. He is also co-founder of UsapangEcon.com and co-host of Usapang Econ Podcast.

His first book, False Nostalgia: The Marcos “Golden Age” Myths and How to Debunk Them, was published by Ateneo de Manila University Press in February 2023. His second book, Twin Plagues: How Duterte and Covid-19 Wrecked the Philippine Economy, was published by Penguin Random House SEA in June 2026. Follow him on Instagram (@jcpunongbayan).