Trump’s US ratings drop to new record low as Democrats become clear favourites in both chambers of Congress

In Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Donald Trump’s net approval has dropped to a new record low of -23.

In his forecast model, Democrats are the clear favourites to gain control of the US federal Senate at November 3 midterm elections, and overwhelming favourites to gain control of the House of Representatives.

If disruption caused by the Iran war continues until the midterm elections, with increased petrol prices and inflation, Republicans are likely to lose control of both the House and the Senate, perhaps with huge losses.

However, if the disruption eases again and petrol prices fall back before the midterms, I believe Republicans will do better than they are now and may retain control of the Senate.

I can say this because Trump’s net approval and the generic ballot were better for Republicans in early September, soon after a low in petrol prices.

Trump’s ratings

In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of US national polls, Trump’s net approval is at a new record low -23.0. Currently, 60.4% disapprove of his performance and 37.4% approve.

Trump’s net approval was -19.7 in my September 14 article. It had improved to -18.7 on September 4 before falling back.

Trump’s net approval is below what any past president since Harry Truman had at this point in their term, with Trump’s first term the closest at -11.6.

On four issues tracked by Silver, Trump’s net approval is -13.0 on immigration, -28.3 on trade, -32.1 on the economy and -46.4 on inflation. Since my September 14 article, Trump’s net approval on immigration, trade and the economy have all dropped one to two points.

Silver also has an aggregate of US support for the Iran war. Currently, 57.9% are opposed to the Iran war while 33.5% support it, for a net support of -24.4, down from -20.1 in my September 14 article.

Midterm elections on November 3

All 435 federal House of Representatives seats and 35 of the 100 senators will be up for election at November 3 midterm elections.

In 2024 elections, Republicans won the House by 220–215 over Democrats and the Senate by 53–47. Owing to Vice President JD Vance’s potential tie-breaking vote, Democrats need at least a four-seat gain to win Senate control.

I previously wrote that, owing to Republican gerrymandering, Democrats need at least a four-point margin in the generic ballot to have a good chance to win the House majority. The Senate is more skewed to Republicans as every state has two senators. Democrats need a double-digit margin in the generic ballot to win the Senate on a uniform swing.

In Silver’s midterm election forecast model, the generic ballot gives Democrats a 51.4–42.3 lead over Republicans, a 9.1-point margin (8.2 points in my September 14 article). Democrats’ lead had dropped to 7.4 points on September 4.

Polls that screen for likely voters usually give Democrats larger leads than polls that ask registered voters. Democrats are more likely to vote at lower turnout elections like the midterms than Republicans, when Trump is not on the ballot.

Silver’s model gives Democrats a 69% chance to win the Senate and a 91% chance to win the House, respectively 57% and 86% on September 14. Democratic chances to win the Senate had fallen to a low of 50% on September 7, and their chances of winning the House had dropped to 81% on September 3.

While uniform swing indicates that Democrats need a double-digit margin in the generic ballot to win control of the Senate, Silver’s model has Democrats as the favourites to win with a 6–7 point margin in the generic ballot. In the House, Democrats are favourites if they win by 3–4 points.

Democrats now lead by two to five points in Senate contests in Texas, Ohio, Alaska and Iowa. Trump won all these states by double-digit margins in 2024. This explains why Democrats are the favourites to gain control of the Senate. Furthermore, Republicans are trailing an independent in Nebraska by 0.2 points and only leading a Democrat in Kansas by 1.3 points.

A bad spot for Democrats is Maine, which should be the easiest Senate gain for them as Kamala Harris defeated Trump in Maine by 6.9 points. But Republican incumbent Susan Collins has led Democrat Troy Jackson in the last two Maine Senate polls, including a three-point lead in a Siena poll for The New York Times.

The two key items that could go wrong for Democrats are a markedly improved economy by November for most Americans – not just the stock market – and a systematic error in which Republicans overperform the polls.

Economic data

Americans are currently paying an average of US$4.48 (A$6.69) a gallon for regular petrol (gasoline in the US). Owing to profits and taxes, the retail price of petrol will be higher than the commodity price.

The commodity price of petrol has surged from a low of US$2.99 (A$4.27) a gallon on August 27 to US$3.49 (A$4.89) now, but down from US$3.52 (A$5.02) on Wednesday. The Iran war high was US$3.76 (A$5.36) on May 18. Before the Iran war began, it was under US$2.

In Silver’s models, Trump and Republicans were at a high in early September, shortly after the August 27 low point in petrol prices.

There appears to be a lag time from changes in the oil price being passed on to petrol. The international benchmark Brent oil peaked at US$108.75 (A$155.17) a barrel on September 15, but fell to US$99.25 (A$141.61) on Tuesday before rising to its current US$105.81 (A$150.97). This implies there should be at least a short-lived drop in petrol prices soon.

After large gains in the three sessions from September 17–21, the benchmark US S&P stock market index is down just 1.2% from its August 13 peak, but up 10.9% from its peak in the week before the Iran war began in late February. It’s up 16.9% from its worst point in the Iran war in late March.

While the AI boom is assisting the stock market, Silver said a poll for Politico had 63% thinking there was at least a moderate risk of AI destroying humanity, compared with 22% who thought there was no or a very small risk. The splits between Trump and Harris 2024 voters were not wide, with Trump voters favouring at least a moderate risk by 61–29 and Harris voters by 70–21.