Fuel price bombshell: Diesel could rise by almost R3 a litre

South African motorists could be in for another increase at the pumps in September, with the latest Central Energy Fund (CEF) data pointing to higher prices across all major fuel categories.

The figures show an indicated increase of around 68 cents per litre for 93 unleaded petrol and 79 cents for 95 petrol.

The outlook for diesel is considerably worse.

The latest data points to a possible increase of R2.75 per litre for 0.05% diesel and R2.93 per litre for 0.005% diesel.

Illuminating paraffin is showing an under-recovery of about R2.16 per litre.

Diesel faces major pressure

The potential diesel increase is particularly concerning for South Africa’s economy because diesel is widely used by freight operators, farmers, construction companies and other businesses.

A sharp rise in diesel costs could increase transportation and operating expenses, potentially filtering through to the prices of food and other goods.

The latest outlook is nevertheless an improvement on the beginning of August. Early-month data had indicated petrol increases of around R1 per litre, while diesel was facing potential increases of close to R5 per litre.

Global oil markets remain a key factor

International petroleum prices and the rand-dollar exchange rate remain the two major drivers of South Africa’s fuel-price calculations.

Brent crude has remained in the upper-$80s per barrel amid geopolitical uncertainty and disruptions affecting global oil markets, but ticked over the $90 mark in recent days.

At the same time, the rand has traded around R16.20 to the US dollar, providing some relief but not enough to offset the sharp increase in international refined diesel prices.

The pressure on diesel has been particularly pronounced because of a global squeeze in refining capacity and higher international wholesale diesel prices.

Final price still to come

Motorists should note that the CEF figures are not the final September fuel-price adjustments.

The data reflects the position during the monthly review period and can change before the final announcement.

The Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources confirms that fuel prices are adjusted monthly based on international oil prices, exchange rates and other regulated components.

The new fuel prices are expected to take effect from midnight on Tuesday, 1 September 2026.

For motorists already feeling the pressure of household costs, the prospect of another petrol increase – and a potentially much larger diesel shock – could make September an expensive month at the pumps.

Latest numbers

Below, the latest projections for September 2026 as received by The South African website from the Central Energy Fund (CEF):

FUEL PRICE IN SOUTH AFRICA IMPACTED BY TWO MAIN FACTORS:

1. The international price of petroleum products, driven mainly by oil prices

2. The rand/dollar exchange rate used in the purchase of these products

Oil price

At the time of publishing the brent crude oil price is $91.28 a barrel.

Exchange rate

At the time of publishing the rand/dollar exchange rate is R16.26/$