Amin Adam questions government bond pricing as short-term yields fall below inflation

Former Finance Minister Dr Mohammed Amin Adam has questioned whether yields on some of Ghana’s short-term government securities adequately reflect market conditions, following a further decline in the 91-day Treasury bill rate.

According to his analysis, the 91-day Treasury bill yielded 4.60% at the October 12, 2026 auction, below September inflation of 5.2%. The rate also stood well below the Bank of Ghana’s policy rate of 14% and the 10.50% yield on the central bank’s 14-day bill.

However, Dr Amin Adam noted that the evidence of financial repression was more pronounced at the very short end of the yield curve. The 364-day Treasury bill yielded about 9.8% at the end of September, giving investors a positive real return of approximately 4.6 percentage points.

“A 91-day rate nearly ten points below the policy rate does indicate that very short Treasury paper is priced by captive liquidity demand rather than by the monetary stance,” he wrote.

He cautioned that when investors accept low yields because of regulation, liquidity requirements, limited alternatives or institutional pressure, government borrowing rates may no longer provide a reliable measure of the country’s credit and duration risks.

He said the government and Bank of Ghana should coordinate their issuance programmes, explain differences between their instruments and rebuild the yield curve through predictable calendars, transparent auction results and market-based pricing.

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DISCLAIMER: The Views, Comments, Opinions, Contributions and Statements made by Readers and Contributors on this platform do not necessarily represent the views or policy of Multimedia Group Limited.