King Abdullah’s UNGA warnings on Israel’s actions in Syria reflect wider regional shift - analysis

The Kingdom of Jordan has often criticized Israel’s actions at the UN and in other forums. It has a long-established track record of backing a two-state solution and supporting the Palestinians. It also has a long track record of slamming Israel over issues involving Jerusalem because Jordan portrays itself as backing the status quo at the Christian and Muslim holy sites in the city.

However, Amman’s criticism at the UN General Assembly on September 22 was different than in the past. This wasn’t just about the West Bank, or Gaza, or Jerusalem. This was about regional strategy.

“This Israeli government's appetite is now a regional threat," Jordan’s King Abdullah II said. "And today, Syria is the warning.”

He was speaking about Israel’s incursion into Syria on December 8, 2024, when the Assad regime fell, and the continued bombing of Syria and shelling of the border area over the last two years. Jordan is concerned about southern Syria for several reasons.

During the Syrian civil war, Amman backed the Syrian rebels. In those days, Israel and Amman both had good ties with Syrian rebel groups in southern Syria. In fact, when the rebels collapsed in 2018 in southern Syria, Israel helped evacuate the White Helmets to Jordan.

Gone are those days now. Jordan embraced the new government in Damascus. Israeli officials have threatened the new government and said that war is coming with Syria. Israel has bombed Damascus and most recently bombed a military base in northern Syria, warning Turkey not to play a role in Syria. There is talk in Jerusalem of a future conflict with Turkey over Syria.

For Jordan, this is problematic. It wants peace and security in southern Syria. During the Assad regime years, Jordan took in almost a million Syrian refugees. It also had to deal with threats from Syria, such as Iranian-backed drug smuggling. For Jordan, the new government in Damascus has presented an opportunity for stability.

However, Israel’s policies are in contrast to this. Israel wants southern Syria demilitarized, and Israel has backed the Druze in Suwayda. The Druze have talked about creating their own state in southern Syria and allying with Israel. Jordan views this with concern. The Kingdom believes that drug smuggling continues to radiate from Suwayda, a legacy of networks from the Assad regime era.

Israel is 'testing how far it can go' in Syria, Jordan claims

It’s worth understanding Jordan’s keen knowledge of southern Syria. Many people in northern Jordan have historic ties to people in southern Syria and vice versa. At the same time, Jordan wants to prevent any spillover from Syria into Jordan. For instance, it doesn’t want any extremist groups popping up amid the security vacuum.

The King of Jordan articulated this at the UN, slamming Israel’s role in Syria.  “The international community is choosing not to see repeated incursions, creeping territorial expansion, new facts and posts on the ground, including around vital water resources. Step by calculated step, Israel is testing how far it can go.” The King argued that Israel is crossing borders and pushing the “legal limits” of expansion.

What the Jordanian king is articulating is a view held increasingly in some chanceries in the region. Historically, Israel was isolated in the Middle East, from its founding in 1948 to the era of the peace agreement with Egypt and Jordan. The peace agreements and the 1990s provided hope for two states. At this time, there was a sense that the Middle East might move from conflict to peace. That didn’t happen.

Nevertheless, countries in the Middle East didn’t view Israel as a major threat because other factors balanced it out. The US invasion of Iraq and the Arab Spring changed these calculations. With the weakening of many states and the civil conflicts in Yemen, Libya, Syria, and Iraq, along with the rise of ISIS, most of the Middle East fell into chaos. Iran stepped into this vacuum. From 2015 to 2020, many of the Arab states were concerned about groups such as ISIS and Iran’s expansion in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen.

However, this began to change after the Abraham Accords. There was a brief period where normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia appeared to be on the table. At this time, some of these countries saw Israel as a possible friend and ally. However, the last three years have changed this perception. After the October 7 attack, the region was plunged into war. Many countries tried to weather the storm.

The fall of the Assad regime and a new election in Iraq have provided hope and promise to Iraq and Syria. At the same time, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, and Turkey have all come to believe that Israel is now stepping into the vacuum left by Iran’s decline. In a classic realist sense of the balance of power in the region, they now see Israel as a possible threat.

Jordan fears power vacuum in Syria spurring deeper Middle East conflict

On the one hand, Israel can ignore the critiques from Turkey because Ankara’s AKP government has been one of the most hostile to Israel in the region. This has led Jerusalem to begin to see Turkey as “the next Iran.” However, Turkey is a member of NATO and the idea of Israel fighting a NATO member likely only appeals to some messianists in Jerusalem. What the other voices believe is that Syria and other states need to remain weak. Jordan fears a power vacuum in southern Syria.

This explains why Jordan is articulating the concerns at the UN. It believes instability in the West Bank or Syria directly threatens the Kingdom. This isn’t the first time the Kingdom felt this way. The Jordanian civil conflict in the 1970s was caused by Palestinian terrorist groups. Jordan sought to separate itself from its previous links to the West Bank in the 1990s. Yet it feels its policies didn’t bring peace, but instead more conflict.

A close ally of the West, Jordan is seeking to raise the alarm about its concerns. Like many countries in the region, the Kingdom will be taking a “wait and see” approach about Israel’s upcoming elections. However, it wants to articulate a view of Israel that is increasingly taking root in the region.