College football best bets: Big 10 showdowns, SEC thrillers ... and a UMass OVER?

For Week 5 of the college football season, one Big Ten matchup has my attention for potentially demanding more patience than fireworks.

Often the betting opportunities extend beyond the familiar helmets: Teams like Alabama, Texas and the Top 25 draw the attention, while smaller games can offer value when fewer people are looking closely.

When everyone looks left, I'm looking right. This week, that search keeps pointing toward unders. That's no reason to blindly bet low scores, though. Pace tells us how many opportunities an offense gets; efficiency tells us what it does with them. Finding where those two intersect is the goal, and this card offers promising spots.

Here's what Mark Zinno and I have for Week 5.

Odds by DraftKings and subject to change.

Michigan at Minnesota: First half UNDER 21.5; Best bet No. 1: full game UNDER 43.5

The Golden Gophers' scoring output is outpacing its true offensive abilities, putting up 27 points per game but only ranked 85th in EPA per play, 91st when adjusted. That means most of the output is coming from short fields rather than successful sustained drives. With a few fumble recoveries and a fumble return touchdown, that type of scoring tends to regress.

But now Minnesota's offense runs into Michigan's defense, which is ranked in the top 10 against the run and top 25 against the pass.

Meanwhile, Michigan's offense has one strength and one weakness. QB Bryce Underwood is efficient while having WR JJ Buchanan as his go-to target, averaging nearly 20 yards per catch. Michigan's run game is actually its weakness as it ranks 90th in success rate, yet runs far more than it passes, keeping the clock moving while cutting total possessions.

What kills this is Minnesota's turnover luck continuing. Michigan has fumbled six times, but hasn't lost any. A fumble lost could hand Minnesota a short field. Even still, Michigan's run-heavy approach forces a slow game.

I really like this UNDER for both the first half and the full game, but the two bets are highly correlated. If you take both, it's because you've chosen a smaller load for your overall card to stay within your budget. The other option is to split half a unit on both to make up the typical one-unit play.

I like the first half because both teams start extremely slow and rank in the bottom ten in the country for pace. That's fewer first-half possessions against tough defenses, A.K.A reasons to also like the full game under.

Best bet No. 2: Temple (+6.5) at South Florida

The scores favor South Florida, but the box scores favor Temple. With one common opponent, the Owls outgained Army but lost because of its own execution (not because they were outplayed). Temple went 0-for-2 on fourth down, 3-for-9 on third down and naturally had fewer possessions because Army held the ball so long.

USF's 4-0 record also came against a softer schedule: FIU, Delaware State and a 14-6 win against Bowling Green. By all measured accounts, Temple has had a tougher schedule, facing Penn State and a road overtime game at Toledo. Losing 27-9 to a (at the time) ranked opponent isn't disqualifying and putting 48 points on the board at Toledo shows Temple's offense has real upside.

The Owls' rushing defense is a concern, but with the offense running 5.7 yards per carry and 218 a game, while hitting explosive passes with WR Colin Chase, the highest receiving average in the American conference, keeps this within range for at least a backdoor if not an outright win.

Fresno State at Washington State: UNDER 45.5

Wazzou's offense can't be trusted to carry its half. The Cougars are ranked in the bottom five in both offensive success rate and third and fourth down conversions, converting only 25% on third down, while QB Caden Pinnick has taken 13 sacks and has more thrown interceptions than he does touchdowns. On top of that, kicker Jack Stevens is 2-for-7 on field goals. Where are points coming from?

Fresno's offense is decent but it's also one dimensional, with one of the lowest rushing outputs in the country. WSU's pass defense is middling, so yardage could be gained but not in a blowout-scoring way.

Fresno plays slow from the start and slows down even more when playing ahead. Even if WSU plays moderately quicker, it's not fast enough to offset Fresno. Expect long fields, stalled drives and stalled drives that end in nothing.

Zinno's best bets

Missouri Tigers team total OVER 25.5

This is a purely game script and range of outcomes type wager. I also think it's better than just taking the points with the Tigers. Florida will eventually not score 40-plus points in a game, but I'm not so sure it's this Saturday. Florida has been beating teams by scoring early and often and forcing them to play catchup. But their defense is leaky, as evidenced by the fact that they gave up a combined 67 points over the last two weeks to SEC opponents, including 39 to a very average Auburn offense.

It doesn't feel like Mizzou has a path to victory scoring 24 or less here. I think it's highly improbable that something like a 23-20 Missouri win materializes unless Florida just stinks the joint up. Florida continuing to score will only push the pace for Mizzou and have them in attack mode. Plus, there's certainly a world where Florida covers a 38-31 type game, so simply taking the points won't be enough here.

If Missouri is going to win, it feels like they need to do so by getting close to 30 points, at the bare minimum. I feel like spread won't matter here -- that is, Florida wins and covers easily or Mizzou wins outright. I get more possibilities for the Tigers to go over this number, win or lose. The only way we don't clear this number is if Missouri is completely shut down by Florida's defense and I don't think that's a high probability either without the Tigers beating themselves.

Arizona (-7)

The Wildcats welcome Cincinnati, and this is a prime spot for Arizona to take advantage. The Bearcats are coming off a mild upset win over Kansas State where they were a touchdown underdog at home. The Bearcats were outgained, had nine fewer first downs, were worse on third down and were beaten soundly in time of possession, but still managed a five-point win.

Now, the Bearcats are playing their first road game of the season along with their first conference road game against an Arizona team that is much more tested than they are. The Wildcats have already faced BYU in Provo and were able to hang with the Cougars for a half and just came off a road win at Washington State 34-24.

Wildcats QB Noah Fifita has been supremely consistent at home throughout his career in Tucson, highlighted by his 84% completion percentage along with six touchdowns and no picks in 2026. He went 23/31 for 294 yards and a touchdown last year in Cincinnati and should be able to duplicate that on Saturday. Add in the Wildcats' 15 sacks -- which are tied for the Big 12 lead -- and it should be a long day for Cincy out west.

Indiana at Rutgers: UNDER 56.5

Am I the only person who thinks Indiana is over-ranked and over hyped? At least, I think their offense is. QB Josh Hoover has not impressed me and last week's game against Northwestern validated the fact that the Hoosiers offense is going to struggle against legitimate competition. With this being Indiana's first road game of the year, I don't think Hoover thrives in this spot.

On the flipside, Indiana's defense is for real. They don't give an inch in the run game as they allow just 69.5 yards per game. Rutgers putting up 35 points last week against USC is more of an indictment on the Trojans.

While I definitely lean Rutgers +24.5 here knowing that they will need to keep it close, I just don't see a shootout happening in Piscataway. There are more outs for the under here as something like a 38-10 final is possible if the Indiana defense causes turnovers, short fields or scores on their own.

Alabama at Mississippi State: First half UNDER 30.5

This total for the game seems way over-inflated to me and if it is, I'm willing to fade it early. Prior to last week against South Carolina, Alabama had slow starts being outscored in the first quarter 21-20 through the first three games. They had a slow first half at Kentucky two weeks ago, trailing 17-13 at half. Going on the road for an early noon start in Starkville doesn't seem like the ideal spot for the Tide offense to come out with a bang.

Alabama's strength is their defense, and Bulldogs quarterback Kamario Taylor may find out how the other half lives (the other half being the top of the SEC, where Alabama is consistently and Mississippi State is trying to get to) as the Tigers won't be able to do much on the ground. Alabama also ranks 4th in FBS in defensive third down percentage, allowing opponents to convert on 23.1% of third downs.

My saying, "if it ain't going over early, it probably ain't going over late" applies here. This just feels like way too many points in a conference game, and you'd need a lot to go right from both offenses here for this to go over. I like the first half here as adjustments at halftime could certainly provide more success later in the game.

Arizona State (-4)

This is as much of a play on the Sun Devils as it is a play against Baylor and quarterback DJ Lagway. Lagway returned after missing the previous two games with an ankle injury and beat Colorado 23-13 in Waco. Now Lagway heads out on the road, where he has struggled in his career. Last season at home, he completed 68% of his passes with 10 touchdowns and five interceptions. On the road, he completed just 58% of his passes while throwing just five touchdowns and nine picks.

This is also the first true road game of the year for the Bears. The Sundevils are the better coached team here with a top 20 pass defense that should create some opportunities for turnovers. Baylor is also 121st in penalty yards per game and self-inflicted wounds won't help you on the road.

UMass team total OVER 26.5 (-145)

I'm not sure that the Minutemen are any good at this point. They are a very surprising 4-0 and they've scored at least 35 points in every game. Their offense continues to roll along on the ground leading the MAC with 194.8 rushing yards per game. They are also second in scoring in the conference averaging 36.4 points per game.

We can also trust that the Minutemen's defense -- which is No. 1 in the conference in total defense and 31st in FBS -- should give them extra opportunities to score against an Eastern Michigan offense that's averaging 292 yards per game -- which is 132nd in FBS. Finally, UMass has been opportunistic as they are second in all FBS with a plus-10 turnover differential. There's enough here to get the Minutemen over this number.