Negeri Sembilan royal row puts Umno’s credibility on the line, say analysts

The Negeri Sembilan royal controversy has become a litmus test of Umno’s credibility, as analysts question how the party can reconcile its claim of defending the monarchy with its decision to recognise the proclamation removing Tuanku Muhriz Tuanku Munawir.

Ahmad Zaharuddin Sani Ahmad Sabri of Global Asia Consulting said the starkest contradiction involved menteri besar Ismail Lasim, who had earlier claimed he was coerced into signing the proclamation and even lodged police reports over the matter.

On Sept 9, Ismail described the proclamation as invalid, unconstitutional and unenforceable, and pledged his support and loyalty to Tuanku Muhriz.

Yet yesterday, he endorsed a statement from his executive council, issued a day earlier, affirming Tuanku Muhriz’s removal as Yang Dipertuan Besar.

Ismail also confirmed that the state executive council had unanimously accepted the proclamation during its Sept 15 meeting and had instructed the state secretary to proceed with its gazettement.

Zaharuddin said the reversal raised questions about Umno’s consistency.

“You can’t say that you are the protector of the monarchy and at the same time be involved in this,” he told FMT.

He cautioned that this could be damaging for a party that often champions principles, citing Umno Youth chief Dr Akmal Saleh’s rejection of Pakatan Harapan, allegedly for repeatedly testing Umno’s principles, dignity and Malay-Muslim sensitivities.

“So, now how are they going to justify it? Does this mean your principles or compass can constantly change, following the direction of the wind,” he added.

He said Umno had faced similar credibility questions in the past, recalling its “No Anwar, No DAP” stance and its opposition to Bersatu—positions that were later followed by political arrangements or discussions at odds with those declarations.

Zaharuddin said the issue was not whether political positions could change, but whether Umno could convincingly explain the reasons for the shift to its latest stance.

“Was it new facts, legal advice, developments involving the Undangs, or political considerations,” he asked.

Malay voters may take notice

Zaharuddin and Mazlan Ali, of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, said the royal row could influence Malay voters in future elections, even beyond Negeri Sembilan.

The impact, according to Zaharuddin, could be particularly pronounced among Malay voters in the upper‑M40 and T20 brackets, since they are more likely to scrutinise such inconsistencies.

Mazlan agreed, saying the controversy risked creating a perception that Umno was directly involved in efforts to remove Tuanku Muhriz.

He said voters tended to reassess political controversies ahead of elections. The issue could hurt Umno nationally as it involved the royal institution, which remains important to certain segments of the Malay electorate, he added.

The greater political risk for Umno, Mazlan said, lay among Malay fence sitters who placed importance on respect for the royal institution and could view the controversy as inconsistent with the party’s traditional positioning.

He said the issue could resurface during the next general election, with Umno’s rivals likely to exploit it by questioning the party’s commitment to the monarchy.

The dispute began in April when Mubarak Dohak, who claims to be the Undang of Sungei Ujong, and three others, also claiming to be undangs, announced Tuanku Muhriz’s removal as Yang Dipertuan Besar.

Two months later, Tuanku Nadzaruddin Tuanku Ja’afar was proclaimed the state’s 12th Yang Dipertuan Besar at a hotel in Melaka.

Last week, the four purported undangs produced a proclamation dated Aug 3 bearing Ismail’s signature, which they said formalised Tuanku Muhriz’s removal.

The controversy remains constitutionally disputed, with the Negeri Sembilan Dewan Keadilan dan Undang maintaining that Tuanku Muhriz remains the lawful Yang Dipertuan Besar and that the state government has no jurisdiction to determine the validity of the proclamation.

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