Southwest monsoon withdrawal advances, rainfall to continue in several states

The withdrawal typically starts from western Rajasthan in September before gradually progressing across northwest and central India, and subsequently moving toward the southern peninsula and eastern regions.

The southwest monsoon is likely to withdraw from more parts of Maharashtra and Chhattisgarh, and some areas of Telangana and north interior Karnataka over the next 2-3 days, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The monsoon withdrawal line currently extends through parts of Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra and Karnataka.

The withdrawal of the southwest monsoon typically starts from western Rajasthan in September before gradually progressing across northwest and central India, and subsequently moving toward the southern peninsula and eastern regions. However, the pace of withdrawal depends on prevailing rainfall and atmospheric conditions.

The development is watched closely by policymakers and agricultural markets as the southwest monsoon contributes about 70% of India's annual rainfall and plays a crucial role in farm output, reservoir levels and rural economic activity.

Rain incoming

Meanwhile, several parts of northwest India are likely to receive rainfall over the coming week, with the IMD forecasting varying intensity across the region. Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan and Muzaffarabad are likely to experience fairly widespread to widespread rainfall on 8 October and 10 October. Rainfall activity is expected to become isolated to scattered on 9 October and 11 October. Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand are likely to receive isolated to scattered rainfall during 8-13 October.

The Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi region and Punjab may also see isolated to scattered rainfall throughout 8-13 October. West Uttar Pradesh is likely to receive rain during 8-9 October, while East Uttar Pradesh could see rainfall from 8-10 October. Further west, West Rajasthan is expected to receive isolated rainfall on 11-12 October, while East Rajasthan may see rainfall on 12 October.

Also, several parts of central and east India are likely to receive rainfall over the coming days. In Central India, Chhattisgarh and East Madhya Pradesh are likely to receive isolated to scattered rainfall from 8-9 October. Chhattisgarh could also experience thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds of 40–50 kmph, with gusts up to 60 kmph, on 8 October. East Madhya Pradesh is likely to see isolated thunderstorms and lightning on 8 October.

In east India, Bihar is likely to receive isolated to scattered rainfall during 8-10 October, while Odisha could see rainfall through 13 October. Jharkhand and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim are expected to receive fairly widespread to widespread rainfall on 8 October.

Gangetic West Bengal may see widespread rainfall on 8 October, with isolated showers on 9-10 October. The Andaman & Nicobar Islands are also likely to receive rainfall, with fairly widespread to widespread showers expected from 9-13 October.

In south peninsular India, rainfall activity is expected to remain significant. Kerala and Mahe are likely to receive fairly widespread to widespread rain during 8-11 October, while Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal are expected to see widespread rainfall on 9 October. Isolated to scattered rain is also likely across Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Coastal Karnataka and South Interior Karnataka during 8-13 October.

About the Author

Vijay C. Roy is a journalist with over 21 years of experience covering various news beats across different organisations such as Business Standard and The Tribune. In the past, he has covered beats such as finance, auto, MSME, commodities, FMCG, pharmaceutical, agriculture, IT/ITES, infrastructure and start-ups. He joined Mint in February 2025, and covers agriculture, food processing, fertilizers, environment and climate change, bringing over two decades of experience reporting on farm policy, food inflation, crop trade, and rural livelihoods.<br><br>Vijay’s areas of reporting include food security and climate change policies, focusing on their impact on different stakeholders and their implications. His expertise lies in simplifying complex agri-economic issues such as edible oil import dependence, cotton and wheat trends, fertiliser subsidies, and climate-related risks. He has covered key developments including global supply disruptions and evolving trade policies, offering both macroeconomic perspective and field-level context. Known for his credible and balanced reporting, he follows a rigorous, fact-based approach that prioritises accuracy and context. He is driven by a commitment to public interest, aiming to make critical agricultural and economic issues accessible while contributing to informed policy and industry discussions.

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