Democrats aim to flip key Senate seats as Trump's popularity sinks to historic low - CNN

Ahead of the US midterms in nine days, Democrats are hopeful for a blue wave to flip several Senate seats, as US President Donald Trump’s approval ratings hit an all-time low of 31%, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll from last week.

According to CNN, the most likely Senate seats to flip include several Republican strongholds, including states that Trump won by double digits in the 2024 election.

In order, CNN analysts believe that the most likely seats to flip are: North Carolina, Ohio, Alaska, Maine, Texas, Michigan, Iowa, Kansas, New Hampshire, and Georgia.

Democrats would need to win seven of these 10 seats to gain a 51-seat majority in the Senate. However, it is rare for a party to take control of the House and the Senate in one singular election.

Of the Senate seats listed, Georgia is the only state where the seat could flip from blue back to red. However, a recent Atlanta Journal-Constitution found that Sen. John Ossoff (D-Georgia) has an eight-point lead over his challenger, Republican Rep. Mike Collins.

Will Democrats be able to take the House?

Cook Political Report found that the Democrats would only need to take one or two seats out of 435 in the House of Representatives to regain a majority. Cook labeled 21 seats in races across the US as “toss-ups”; 16 of them are held by Republicans, and five are held by Democrats.

Ten Republican-held seats could flip blue, while eight Democratic seats could flip red, Cook reported.

A separate Reuters/Ipsos poll earlier this month showed Democrats leading Republicans by 7 points, 44% to 37%.

Much of the drop in support for Republican congressional candidates was due to a larger share of women saying they would pick Democrats. Some 50% of female voters said they would vote Democratic, compared to 32% eyeing Republican candidates. Men also favored Democrats, but by a smaller margin.

While the data collected shows potential for a series of wins for the Democrats, CNN noted that the House and the Senate rarely change control in the same year. The last time the Democrats took control of both chambers was in 2006 as part of the Blue Wave against the war in Iraq.

What have Republicans done to strengthen their chances of winning?

The president’s party historically loses House seats in the midterms. The Trump administration and Republicans have stressed to their base for months the importance of voting, and have resorted to unorthodox ways of trying to boost turnout.

At the beginning of October, Trump promised voters that if Republicans win big in the midterms, he will send US adults $5,000.

It is unclear how the president will get the money to Americans, and where the money would come from.

NBC reported that the endeavor would cost at least $1.3 trillion.

Trump told Republicans earlier this month that he will be blamed if the GOP loses several seats in the midterms.

“If we don’t win the midterms, they’re going to blame me,” Trump told crowds in Tennessee earlier this month. “You know that. And if we do win them, I will get no credit whatsoever. It’s true. I won’t get any.”

“But I’m working my ass off. You better get out there and vote,” he added.

Sources close to Trump told NBC that he is in “grind it out mode” ahead of the midterms and is prepared for the worst-case scenario.

How many Americans have voted so far?

Notably, at least 26 million Americans have already cast their ballots in early voting ahead of November 3 midterms, according to data from NBC News updated on Sunday.

Of them, 47% are registered Democrats, 35% are registered Republicans, and 18% are registered as other, according to NBC.

According to data from NBC, 14.3 million voters have sent in mail-in ballots, while at least another 12.6 million have voted in person at early in-person voting locations.