China’s military purge reduces war risk: experts

SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK: The Chinese military would most likely focus on rebuilding its organization and leadership in the next few years, experts said

• By Fang Wei-li and Jonathan Chin / Staff reporter, with staff writer

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Chinese President Xi Jinping’s (習近平) military purge has reduced the risks of a planned war against Taiwan, yet increased the danger of a conflict sparked by a miscalculation or accident, Taiwanese experts said yesterday.

They made the comments at a seminar on the Fifth Plenary Session of the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) 20th Central Committee held by the research group Secure Taiwan Associate Corp (STA) in Taipei.

The wholesale sacking of Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) officers and managers of the aerospace and defense industry is sure to set back Xi’s timetable to prepare the PLA to launch an invasion of Taiwan by next year, they said.

Chinese Communist Party officials hold a news conference in Beijing on Friday, a day after the party Central Committee’s fifth plenum closed.

Photo: AP

The Chinese armed forces’ attention would most likely be fully absorbed by efforts to rebuild their organization and leadership in the next one to four years in a welcome development for Taiwan, they said.

Yet the lack of experience in the Chinese military’s most senior command levels is also a warning sign, as amateurs and sycophants are far more likely to make missteps that inadvertently lead to war, they added.

Association for Strategic Foresight researcher Chieh Chung (揭仲) said that 96 CCP Central Committee members, or 26 percent of the total membership, have departed under a cloud.

This figure is more than double the number of Central Committee officials ousted for corruption or improprieties in the 18th iteration of the Central Committee, he said.

The dismissal of Ma Xingrui (馬興瑞), Jin Zhuanglong (金壯龍), Zhao Xiaozhe (趙曉哲) and Lei Fanpei (雷凡培), among 28 formerly high-ranking defense and aerospace industry officials, would force a comprehensive re-examination of China’s defense procurement plans, he said.

The drastic changes would derail the military reform targets Xi originally planned to achieve by the 100th anniversary of the PLA’s founding next year, he said.

Xi had rolled back the theater commands’ autonomy and ability to conduct operations independently, which runs contrary to recognized principles of modern joint warfare, he said.

The disruption to PLA leadership and its cumbersome command arrangements are likely to cripple the capability of the Chinese military to project force or respond to a contingency for the next three to four years, he said.

Yet, Xi’s willingness to put ideology and politics over professionalism also means Chinese generals would be fearful of voicing disagreements or appearing weak, he said.

These flaws would make it significantly more difficult for Beijing to exercise sound judgement or de-escalate dangerous situations, increasing the risks of sparking an unwanted conflict, he said.

The most recently dismissed members and alternate members of the Central Committee included 16 PLA brass and seven high-ranking managers of China’s defense industry, National Taiwan University political science professor Chen Shih-min (陳世民) said.

The PLA’s organizational table calls for more than 40 full generals and admirals to staff the armed forces, but only six such officers are left at the helm, he said.

The arrest of former vice chairman and PLA general Zhang Youxia (張又俠) nine months ago has all but eliminated the Central Military Commission, where he previously served as one of its two vice chairmen, Chen said.

The only members left in the Chinese military’s high command are Xi and General Zhang Shengmin (張升民), a commissar with no professional training in commanding troops, he said.

National Defense University Chinese military studies professor Ma Chen-kun (馬振坤) said the PLA would be absorbed by efforts to recuperate and reorganize its internal organization for up to two years.

The Central Committee meeting elevated Zhang Shengmin, the Central Military Commission’s last remaining general, to the Politburo, without filling vacancies in the high command, he said.

The prominence of Zhang Shengmin contravened the PLA’s long-standing policy of maintaining separate tracks for commissars and professional soldiers, he said.

Zhang Shengmin’s lack of qualifications have compromised the Chinese military’s crisis management, increasing the chances of dangerous miscalculations and mishaps, Ma said.