‘Very strong El Niño’ to persist in PH until early 2027 – Pagasa

MANILA, Philippines — A very strong El Niño is likely to emerge between September and December 2026 and may continue until the first half of 2027, the state weather bureau said on Wednesday.

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section chief Ana Liza Solis said that based on climate models and evaluations, El Niño may intensify into a “very strong” phenomenon between September and December.

READ: Iligan braces for El Niño’s impact on agriculture, electricity

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“Now El Niño is strong, and it could continue until the first half of 2027, and a very strong El Niño is likely to emerge during the September-October-November [and] October-November-December seasons,” she explained during Pagasa’s climate forum.

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El Niño refers to warmer-than-normal ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.

As of September 21, dry conditions, dry spells, and drought are affecting several areas in the country amid the presence of a strong El Niño in the tropical Pacific.

The affected areas are as follows:

Dry condition

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• Luzon – Masbate and Sorsogon
• Visayas – Negros Occidental
• Mindanao – Agusan del Sur, Davao City, Davao del Norte, Lanao del Norte, Sarangani, Sultan Kudarat, and Surigao del Sur

Dry spell

• Visayas – Biliran, Bohol, Capiz, Cebu, Eastern Samar, Leyte, Northern Samar, and Southern Leyte
• Mindanao – Agusan del Norte, Basilan, Bukidnon, Camiguin, Cotabato (North Cotabato), Davao de Oro, Davao del Sur, Davao Occidental, Davao Oriental, Dinagat Islands, Lanao del Sur, Maguindanao del Sur, Misamis Oriental, South Cotabato, Suli, Surigao del Norte, Zamboanga del Sur, and Zamboanga Sibugay

Drought

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• Luzon – Albay, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, and Quirino
• Visayas – Negros Oriental, Samar, and Siquijor

According to Pagasa, drought refers to three to five consecutive months of prolonged below-normal rainfall conditions. Meanwhile, a dry spell indicates below-average rainfall conditions for three consecutive months. Dry conditions, on the other hand, refer to two consecutive months of below-normal rainfall conditions.

Solis said the impact of a very strong El Niño phenomenon may cause hotter temperatures and a significant reduction in rainfall in the country.

“This means there could be complications or severe consequences. Essentially, there is a higher probability that we will experience the impact, specifically a significant reduction in rainfall and hotter temperatures. Consequently, our agriculture could be affected,” she explained.

She also said that by the end of December, many areas may experience dry conditions and a significant reduction in rainfall.

Rainfall deficits were already observed in 45 provinces in the country as of September, Pagasa reported.

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“By the end of December, we foresee an increase in areas experiencing dry conditions. There are additional areas that will be seeing a significant reduction in rainfall,” Solis said. /mcm