NFL nightmare: How a six-win NFC East team could end up making the playoffs if Commanders beat the Giants

Nov 12, 2026 at 12:20 pm ET • 4 min read

The second half of the NFL season kicks off Thursday night, with the New York Giants hosting the Washington Commanders in an NFC East showdown. 

With Washington sitting at 2-5-1, this might not seem like a big game, but you could argue that it's actually huge. If Washington pulls off the upset, that will throw a wrench into the NFC East race, because it will leave the Commanders just two games back of the Giants (5-2-1).

A Commanders win could also cause some serious chaos in the division, because it could potentially lead to a situation where a SIX-WIN team wins the NFC East. Now, that probably won't happen, but we're still going to look at this somewhat realistic scenario, since it would be the first time in NFL history that a team has won its division with just six wins. 

Here's what would have to happen down the stretch with the Cowboys, Commanders and Giants (For the sake of this exercise, we're not going to worry about the Eagles). 

Commanders (2-5-1)

Week 10: at Giants (WIN)
Week 11: Bengals (LOSS)
Week 12: at Cardinals (WIN)
Week 13: at Titans (WIN)
Week 14: Texans (LOSS)
Week 15: Falcons (LOSS)
Week 16: at Vikings (LOSS)
Week 17: at Jaguars (LOSS)
Week 18: Cowboys (WIN)
Breakdown: If the Commanders pull off the upset on Thursday night, it wouldn't be surprising at all to see their schedule play out like this. We have them beating the Cardinals and Titans in two very winnable games and then dropping four in a row and there's a good chance that they'll be the underdog in each of those games. 

Giants (5-2-1)

Week 10: Commanders (LOSS)
Week 11: Jaguars (LOSS)
Week 12: at Colts (LOSS)
Week 13: 49ers (LOSS)
Week 14: at Seahawks (LOSS)
Week 15: Browns (LOSS)
Week 16: at Lions (LOSS)
Week 17: at Cowboys (LOSS)
Week 18: Eagles (WIN)
Breakdown: The biggest stretch on this list is definitely the loss to the Colts in Week 12, but it's easy to see how Indy could potentially pull off an upset. The Giants are surrendering 123.6 rushing yards per game and you could see a situation where Jonathan Taylor goes off while leading Indy to a shocking win. As for the other losses, the Giants will probably be an underdog in at least five of their seven games from Week 11 thru Week 17. 

Cowboys (4-5)

Week 10: 49ers  (LOSS)
Week 11: Titans (LOSS)
Week 12: Eagles (WIN)
Week 13: at Seahawks (LOSS)
Week 14: BYE
Week 15: at Rams (LOSS)
Week 16: Jaguars (LOSS)
Week 17: Giants (WIN)
Week 18: at Commanders (LOSS)
Breakdown: The Cowboys still have to play the 49ers, Rams and Seahawks and there's a good chance they'll be a huge underdog in all three of those games. The only game here that would he hard to see happening is the Titans winning in Dallas, but let's not rule it out. Five of Tennessee's seven losses have come by one score and they just took the Bengals to overtime in Week 8. 

You essentially have two games here that feel like a stretch -- Titans over Cowboys, Colts over Giants -- but everything else seems somewhat plausible. 

If all of this happens, that would set the stage for the NFL's nightmare scenario: A six-win team taking home the NFC East title. 

If the schedule plays out this way, the final standings in the division would look like this: 

NFC EAST FINAL STANDINGS
1. Commanders: 6-10-1
2. Giants: 6-10-1
3. Cowboys: 6-11

Under this scenario, the Commanders would win the division thanks to their better head-to-head record against the Giants, going 1-0-1. 

Not counting strike years, only three teams have ever won their division with seven wins (2010 Seahawks, 2014 Panthers and 2020 Commanders), but no team has ever won it with six wins. Considering the Commanders were the last team to get in with seven wins, it would almost be fitting if they were to break new ground by making the playoffs with six wins. 

As a division winner, the six-win Commanders would get to host a game in the wild-card round of the playoffs, and based on how things are playing out in the NFC North right now, they could be playing a team that has TWICE as many wins as them. 

If a six-win team ends up hosting a game, the NFL might have to go back to the drawing board with its playoff format. In early 2025, the Lions offered a proposal to change the seeding in the playoffs and if that had gone through, the seeding would have been based on each team's final record. 

All four division winners would still have gotten in under this proposal, but they wouldn't have been guaranteed a home game. If the NFC East or NFC South (or both) produce a six-win champion, the league might have to revisit the proposal during the upcoming offseason.