Toronto mayoral race tightens, Chow’s lead cut to single digits

Posted September 22, 2026 12:26 pm

2 min read

The race to be Toronto’s next mayor is tightening, according to a new poll, which shows challenger Brad Bradford gaining ground on incumbent Olivia Chow.

The latest study from Liaison Strategies has Chow at 47 per cent among decided and leaning voters, just seven points ahead of Bradford, who is at 40 per cent.

Chris Alexander remains in third place at 10 per cent.

“Chow’s cushion is smaller. Her lead has gone from 11 points to seven, with Chow down three points and Bradford up one,” David Valentin, principal at Liaison Strategies, said.

“It’s a closer result, but not enough to establish a new trend. Bradford has gained some ground without overtaking the mayor.”

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The past two polls from Liaison had Chow holding a low double-digit lead over Bradford. As the campaign has heated up, support for the incumbent appears to have slipped slightly.

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The Liaison poll found the cost of living was voters’ top priority, followed by housing affordability, then crime and safety, with congestion rated next highest.

The latest study went into the field after the first Toronto mayoral debate attended by all three leading candidates and hosted by Daily Bread Food Bank.

Valentin said the race played differently across the city, with Chow ahead in downtown and Bradford leading in Etobicoke.

“The most competitive parts of the city are North York and Scarborough, ” he added. “Chow leads Bradford 46 per cent to 41 per cent in North York and 46 per cent to 43 per cent in Scarborough.”

Toronto’s municipal election will be held on Oct. 26, 2026.

Methodology: Liaison surveyed a random sample of 1,000 Toronto residents from September 19 to September 20, 2026, using Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology. Participants were reached through random digit dialling (RDD) across both landline and cellular phone networks. The resulting data was weighted to match targets based on the 2021 Census. For the total sample, the margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The margin is higher for subsamples. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.