Beijing is boosting ‘Ocean Wave’

Since last month, the most eye-catching phenomenon in Taipei’s politics has been the “Ocean Wave” (洋流) — officially called “Taipei Current” — stirred up by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Taipei mayoral candidate Puma Shen (沈伯洋) and his supporters. However, if we only attribute this political wave to innovative campaign tactics or social media mobilization, we might overlook another key variable that is secretly fueling the situation behind the scenes — the “Chinese factor.”

Shen’s rise in politics has always been intertwined with the “Chinese factor.” Even before he announced his mayoral bid, Beijing listed him as a “die-hard Taiwanese independence separatist” and imposed sanctions against him in 2024.

Fundamentally, the reason Beijing dreads and loathes Shen is not because he has proposed a highly systematic “Taiwan independence” doctrine, but because his research on prevention and coping with “gray zone” conflicts in the past few years has struck at the weakness of China’s infiltration and information manipulation efforts.

Traditional political criticism often remains stuck in a war of words, but Shen’s defense theory directly addresses social resilience and the construction of civil defense systems. His attempt to institutionalize and popularize the concept of defense naturally is seen by Beijing as a difficult institutional obstacle.

Beijing’s crackdown on Shen includes its Taiwan Affairs Office issuing the sanctions, the Chongqing Municipal Public Security Bureau filing a case for his “crime of secession,” as well as the extension of the sanctions to his family and affiliated enterprises. A case filed by the Taipei District Prosecutors’ Office further confirms that some Hong Kongers hired a detective agency to secretly monitor Shen’s Taipei residence. Shen was also tracked by China when traveling overseas.

More recently, Taiwanese entertainer Kevin Tsai (蔡康永) was boycotted by Chinese Internet users after he attended the opening of Shen’s campaign office. Tsai’s deals with Chinese brands were cut.

This series of maneuvers of “transnational repression” and a “chilling effect” by Beijing have a clear intention.

Despite this deterrence logic being part of authoritarian rule, when it fell into the democratic soil of Taiwan, it generated a huge counterforce.

Strong external threats often fail to achieve internal deterrence due to the “rally round the flag effect” and negative participation theory, according to political science. Instead, they might quickly transform into the political defense legitimacy of the oppressed. When an external power oppresses a Taiwanese politician, voters are likely to develop a defensive group mentality.

When the Chinese side condemned Shen harshly and filed a criminal case, its actions not only failed to isolate him, but also pasted an “anti-China, pro-Taiwan” label on him. This has laid an irreplaceable symbolic position in the eyes of the pro-independence camp and even the center-green voters. In other words, Beijing’s overwhelming oppression has become the best catalyst for the “Ocean Wave” to flood out of the green camp’s bubbles.

If Beijing continues to fail to understand the true logic of voter psychology and power operation under a democratic system, and further intensifies its criticism of Shen during the critical campaign period, it might allow the “Chinese factor” to boost the wave and repeat its mistakes.

John Lim is a distinguished research fellow at the University of Tokyo’s Institute for Advanced Studies on Asia.