Don’t look now, but Canada is officially becoming a partisan issue in the U.S.

WASHINGTON, D.C. — “Canada treats us very badly.”

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“They are one of the worst countries in the world to deal with.”

“(Canada’s leaders) are nasty people.”

President Donald Trump has said plenty of negative things about Canada in recent years, especially on trade, yet Americans remain largely positive toward Canada.

A new Pew Research Center survey of American views of G20 countries had Canada topping the list alongside Australia. But the figures still reflect a decline: Americans’ average rating of Canada on a “feeling thermometer” ranging from zero to 100 fell from 71 in 2018 to 67 in 2026.

So why the four-point drop in America’s warm feelings toward its northern neighbour? In a word: Republicans.

Since 2018, the share of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents with warm views of Canada fell from 59 to 50 per cent. Older Republicans were largely responsible for the decline, as those aged 50-plus saw their warm views drop from 61 to 47 per cent, while younger Republicans’ views had not significantly changed.

American Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, meanwhile, rated Canada 19 points higher than their Republican counterparts — one of the largest partisan gaps in the survey.

So is it fair to say that Canada is becoming a partisan issue in the United States?

“Yes,” said Laura Silver, associate director at Pew and an expert in international survey research. “That would be absolutely fair.”

“We did not see large partisan gaps when it came to views of Canada or perceptions of trade with Canada prior to recent years. But at this point, we’ve seen shifting views among Republicans, and as of now … the gap between partisans’ views of Canada is among the largest of any of the countries that we asked about.”

But does that widening divide mean Canada is increasingly being seen as aligned with the Democrats?

The Trump administration has portrayed some Canadian activities in explicitly partisan terms. This week, the U.S. Embassy in Ottawa released a “fact sheet” alleging potential election interference, highlighting Canadian officials’ meetings with Democrats and efforts to put economic pressure on Republican states. And last month, Peter Navarro, an adviser to President Donald Trump, warned Canadians that “if you interfere in our elections in Maine or Michigan you will pay even more dearly.”

But not everyone thinks Americans increasingly see Canada as being aligned with the Democrats.

Chris Kirkey, director of the Center for the Study of Canada and Institute on Quebec Studies at State University of New York at Plattsburgh, sees similarities between some Canadian policies and Democratic priorities, but he does not think Americans largely regard Canada through a party-political lens.

“Canada has always been highly non-political in this country,” he said.

Brian Rathbun, professor at the Munk School of Global Affairs & Public Policy at the University of Toronto, sees the cooling of Republican views as voters taking cues from their party’s leader or “cueing,” rather than anything specific about Canada. He sees Republicans downgrading Canada because of Trump’s negative comments about the country, not because of a substantive change in their own relationship with Canada.

“I don’t think it has anything to do with Canada per se,” he said, adding that he expects views to become more positive after Trump leaves office.

Silver noted that about half of Republicans said in 2023 that trade between the two countries benefited both equally. By March 2025, shortly after Trump returned to office and began verbally attacking Canada over trade, the share saying Canada benefited more had risen sharply. The findings are consistent with a “cueing” explanation, but cannot establish cause and effect, she said.

“We have cross-sectional data, not causal data,” she explained.

Speaking before the Pew survey’s release, Christopher Sands, director of the Center for Canadian Studies at Johns Hopkins, warned that blaming Canada for potential Republican midterm losses could make it harder for Ottawa to work with the party.

“It carries a certain risk that if Democrats do well but are nonetheless seen as the enemy and Canada is associated with just one party, then it becomes harder to have conversations with Republicans who you’ll need unless the Republicans are completely wiped out,” he said.

But Rathbun remains optimistic “that Canada is not going to become part of American polarization,” noting that while Canada is currently associated more with Democrats, he doubts this will last.

“I’m not worried about this becoming … part of MAGA lore … that Canadians are the enemy,” he said.

I don’t think it has anything to do with Canada per se

Silver suggested that negative feelings could fade if Canada becomes less prominent in Americans’ minds.

“When something is not particularly salient for the public, when they’re not thinking about it often, we can see kind of a reversion almost to the mean,” she said. But negative views could persist if the relationship remains economically consequential to Americans, she cautioned.

Even if American goodwill toward Canada rebounds, as he and other experts expect, Rathbun says the damage on the Canadian side is likely to last longer.

A Pew survey earlier this year showed that just 33 per cent of Canadians view the United States favourably, down 21 percentage points since 2024.

“Canadian attitudes towards Americans will probably be more negative for a longer period of time,” said Rathbun, noting that the confrontation and trade tensions are more consequential for Canadians.

“It affects them more; they think about it more.”

National Post

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