Think you've dodged the flu this year? Don't be so sure

Australia is facing an abnormally late surge in influenza numbers this year, but the total amount of cases is predicted to be far fewer than 2025.

Last year, the nation recorded a grim record, with over 1,700 Australians dying from influenza — the most this century.

Royal Australian College of General Practitioners president Dr Michael Wright said the good news was that numbers this year would be lower.

Dr Wright said last year saw two influenza peaks, with the second peak coming from a new strain of the virus.

This year's influenza vaccine covers that new strain — something Dr Wright attributes to the lower numbers recorded this year.

But he has warned against complacency.

"There may still be another peak coming,"

Dr Wright said.

"And really, it's not too late to still get your flu vaccine."

The Australian Centre for Disease Control tracks the number of laboratory confirmed influenza cases across the country. 

This year, it shows there has been far fewer cases than the previous year.

A spokesperson for the centre said although the rate of flu activity had increased nationally, it had slowed in recent weeks, suggesting the national peak may be approaching.

Since the pandemic, flu season has typically aligned the winter months, however the spokesperson said a peak in early-September is consistent with pre-pandemic flu seasons.

States record upticks

At the start September, data from Queensland Health showed an unusually late uptick in influenza cases across the state, with abnormally low reports of the disease so far this year. 

Experts warned the peak may continue to rise, with data from last week showing there were about 3,435 people diagnosed with influenza in Queensland.

Looking at other Australian jurisdictions a bit more closely, the data shows that influenza cases are also lower than compared to the same time last year. 

In Victoria, influenza notifications have increased by around 400 per cent over the past seven weeks, with influenza A making up most of the cases.

The state's emergency departments have experienced a 25 per cent increase in acute respiratory infections over the past six weeks, mainly from children.

Victoria's Chief Health Officer Dr Caroline McElnay said the season has arrived later than previous years.

"While it can be difficult to predict exactly when flu activity will peak, cases are expected to remain high over the coming weeks, including through the school holidays,"

Dr McElnay said.

In New South Wales, Health Department data shows reported cases have decreased, but remain at a high level. 

While cases remained lower over the winter months than the previous year, the state has recorded an uptick towards the end of August and start of September. 

In August, South Australia's Chief Public Health Officer also predicted a late-flu season.

So far, the number of influenza cases reported in South Australia is well below figures at the same time last year.

In Tasmania, cases are also on the rise, but remain at "moderate" levels, according to the state's Health Department.

Dr Wright said higher-risk individuals — those with chronic health conditions, children under five, and older Australians — should seek medical advice on whether a vaccine was needed.

FluTracking Australia releases its own weekly national data on self-reported flu-like symptoms. 

Its latest report from the week ending September 13 shows respiratory illness, defined as a fever and cough, has plateaued this month, and the surge has occurred later than in previous years.