Alaska Senate race: Democratic enthusiasm may favor Peltola, professor says

“Alaska is often seen as a Republican stronghold, but it has traditionally had a pragmatic political culture that puts local interests ahead of party loyalty. The tight race we are seeing in this election reflects Alaskans’ frustration with the high cost of living and some of President Donald Trump’s policies.”

Amy Lauren Lovecraft, a professor of political science at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, made the remarks in a video interview with The Kyunghyang Daily News on October 16. She said the enthusiasm gap between Democratic and Republican voters, along with the choices of independent and nonpartisan voters, could be key factors in the closely contested U.S. Senate race between incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan and Democratic challenger Mary Peltola.

- Alaska has long been considered a Republican stronghold, but Democratic candidates are becoming increasingly competitive. Why is that?

“Alaska actually started out as a blue state. When Alaska and Hawaii became states in 1959, there was a political understanding aimed at maintaining a balance between the two parties. Alaska was seen as Democratic-leaning, while Hawaii was considered Republican-leaning. At the time, Alaska already had strong labor unions and a strong desire for social justice.

During the pipeline era beginning in the 1970s, Alaska became more of a purple state, with Democrats and Republicans alternating in power. Although it has been regarded as a Republican state in recent decades, Alaska remains different from other Republican strongholds. It has a distinctive political culture that values oil and gas development while also maintaining strong labor unions and recognizing the importance of Indigenous rights.”

- What will be the biggest factors determining the outcome of the Senate race?

“The economy and the cost of living are clearly the biggest issues. When oil prices rise, it is good for Alaska’s state finances, but it is bad for individual Alaskans.

This year, residents received a $1,000 dividend from the Permanent Fund, Alaska’s sovereign wealth fund established with revenues from oil and other sources. An additional $200 energy relief payment was made as oil prices rose amid the war with Iran, but that is nowhere near enough to offset the rising cost of living, particularly higher heating oil and other energy costs.

This could put Sullivan at a disadvantage. President Trump does not seem to care very much about everyday living costs, and Sullivan is tied to the military activities in Iran simply because he belongs to the same party as Trump.

Peltola, on the other hand, is an Indigenous woman who understands the seriousness of climate change while also recognizing the economic importance of oil and gas development. That combination may appeal to voters who are not strongly attached to either political party.”

Lovecraft also identified immigration enforcement by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and deteriorating relations with Canada as important election issues.

“Anchorage is home to many immigrant and diaspora communities, and Indigenous communities in Alaska have long maintained close ties with Indigenous peoples across the border in Canada,” she said.

“The midterm election is, in part, a referendum on how Alaskans feel President Trump’s second term has been going.”