News24 | No pain, no (weight) gain: By 2030, most people might just take a pill

Novo is optimistic about its pill replacements for the semaglutide injections.

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Weight-loss pills could ‌capture as much as half of the global ⁠obesity drug market by 2030, Novo’s CEO told Reuters on ⁠Tuesday, as the Danish drugmaker positions itself for a shift away from weekly injections.

CEO Mike Doustdar said Novo was preparing for a market in which pills play a much larger role. The ‌company has five oral treatments in development after beating rival Eli Lilly to market with the first obesity pill earlier this year.

Doustdar told Reuters after Novo’s Capital Markets Day ‌in London that competitors remained heavily focused on injectables, which still dominate the market, a dynamic he said could favour Novo over the longer term.

“What happens if by 2030 the market is 50/50 (pills-to-injectables)?” he said, noting that rivals’ pipelines contain eight ‌injectables for every ⁠two pills under development. “We are preparing ourselves for all scenarios, including that one.”

Changing fortunes

If realised, that split would exceed Wall Street forecasts, which expect oral treatments to account for about 14% to 40% of an obesity market projected to reach between $100 billion and $150 billion by 2030.

Novo’s fortunes have reversed sharply since the 2021 launch of its Wegovy weight-loss medication helped make it Europe’s most valuable listed company. Its shares have tumbled more than 70% from their peak as ⁠Lilly has overtaken its market share.

The company has found some relief in its Wegovy pill. Oral therapies now account for about a third of US obesity prescriptions following the pill’s rollout, according to company presentations on Monday, ⁠with Novo capturing more than 80% of new oral prescriptions.

The pill generated nearly 5.5 billion Danish crowns ($843 million) in first-half sales.

Novo’s oral obesity pipeline includes next-generation dual-acting tablet zenagamtide, an oral amylin analogue and a small-molecule drug.

Doustdar ⁠added oral Wegovy was protected from generic competition into the “mid and late 30s” ‌through patents covering its ‌SNAC delivery technology, addressing investor concerns over a patent cliff when active ingredient semaglutide loses exclusivity in the early 2030s.