COP31 electric power target sparks row over cutting fossil fuel use

Pressure is growing for this year's climate talks to do more to cut fossil fuel use, with countries pushing back on an ambitious plan by Türkiye to increase electricity's share of global energy consumption to 35 per cent by 2035.

There was more positive news, though, on an Australian-supported push to double the number of households with rooftop solar panels to at least 300 million by 2030.

Ahead of world leaders arriving for Wednesday's leaders' summit, Tuesday was "energy and transport day" at the UN climate talks being held in Antalya, Türkiye.

But the day got off to a rough start when a massive traffic jam saw many of the 100,000 attendees to the meeting stuck on buses for hours.

Türkiye was keen to promote what it wants to see as the centrepiece of this year's talks — the so-called '35 by 35' — electrification pledge.

But a key sticking point is whether countries can make that pledge by only using electricity generated by clean energy sources.

The proposed wording of the pledge does not require clean or renewable energy to meet the goal, instead saying "electrification pathways and rates, including the use of clean electricity and technologies, will differ according to different starting points".

Analysts estimate that if the 35 per cent target was reached using only clean energy, it could cut the projected level of global warming of at least 2.6C above pre-industrial levels, based on present government policies, by 0.3C.

Supporters say it is an ambitious target, requiring the world to electrify at four times the current pace.

But sceptics say that if the shift to more electricity was partly based on fossil fuels, it will only lock in the prolonged use of fossil fuels.

'No chance' of hitting 1.5C without pledge, Bowen says

Some countries — particularly poorer ones — face major problems in shifting from fossil-fuel based electricity to clean energy sources, because of the requirements to upgrade or rebuild their grids to accommodate such a change.

Australia's Minister for Climate and Energy, Chris Bowen said Türkiye had set out an "ambitious" target which "to some might not sound that much".

"That's not the case. We're currently at 23 per cent [electricity as a share of total energy consumption].

"The world has no chance of holding to 1.5 degrees unless we lift that to 35 per cent.

"That would require more than a four-fold increase in the rate of electrification around the world."

The 35-by-35 electrification pledge was proposed by Türkiye — as co-president of this year's talks — as a way of getting around the protracted direct battles over cutting fossil fuels at past meetings.

But the resistance to a requirement that the increased electrification would have to come only from clean energy revealed the problem has not gone away.

There was also a renewed push for the summit to directly address fossil fuel use, by developing a road-map for countries to follow, even though there is no specific agenda on fossil fuels on the conference agenda.

A plan to cut fossil fuels had been proposed at last year's meeting in Brazil but with the parties unable to even decide who would draw up such a road map, Brazil said it would develop one itself — which it presented to this year's meeting.

Outgoing UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres challenged Türkiye and Australia to carry on the work of developing a transition plan out of fossil fuels.

"Let us leave Antalya with clear next steps to advance this Roadmap", he said.

"I encourage the current and future COP presidencies to carry this work forward."

Australia focuses on global rooftop solar

The IEA chief, Fatih Birol, said adopting the 35-by-35 target would send a clear signal to global markets that "electricity is the future", potentially marking a turning point for the energy sector.

Dr Birol argues that countries should be able to choose whether there 35-by-35 pledge would be based purely on clean energy, but that its much-closer cost would inevitably mean the pledge would produce a fall in emissions.

Australia endorsed a voluntary pledge to double the number of households with rooftop solar at the Pacific pre-COP meeting in Fiji last month.

Yesterday, it was joined by the national governments of Bangladesh, Kenya, Nigeria, Palau, and Vanuatu.

There were also signs of support from Pakistan, from Indonesia's state-owned electric power utility, PT PLN as well as 34 members of parliament from 21 countries, including the United Kingdom, South Africa, and Sri Lanka.

The pledge does not commit countries to binding targets but to taking measures designed to accelerate the take up of household solar by streamlining permits and improving access to finance.

At a ceremony to mark more countries signing up to the pledge. the CEO of Solar Citizens ,Heidi Lee Douglas, said 300 million solar households actually meant "one billion solar citizens ".

She said access to reliable activity — just through lighting — meant everything from greater safety for women and the chance to keep working into the evening, to giving children a greater chance to do homework.