One year on, Trump's Gaza plan has not stopped Israeli fire or disarmed Hamas - explainer

US President Donald Trump’s year-old plan to end the Gaza war has stalled, and Israel and Hamas have been battling in the Gaza Strip for almost three years.

The initial phase resulted in a ceasefire on October 10, 2025, and secured the release of the last remaining hostages seized in Hamas’s 2023 attacks on Israel, in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners and detainees held by Israel.

But other goals, including disarming Hamas, securing Israeli withdrawal - as the IDF currently controls about two-thirds of the strip - and rebuilding Gaza, appear far from reach.

The first phase of Trump’s 20-point plan included a suspension of all military operations, Israeli withdrawal from part of the strip, hostage and prisoner releases and a surge in aid.

Later phases called for Hamas to disarm and for a Palestinian body to assume governance, overseen by the Trump-led Board of Peace. Israel would gradually withdraw, handing territory to a temporary International Stabilization Force (ISF).

“Gaza will be redeveloped for the benefit of the people of Gaza, who have suffered more than enough,” the plan said.

Israeli strikes continue despite Gaza ceasefire

There has been no return to full-scale military operations, but Israeli strikes have continued. Gaza's Hamas-run health ministry claims at least 1,400 Palestinians have been killed since the October ceasefire, many of them women and children, although it does not disclose terrorist casualties.

Israel says its strikes have targeted Hamas, accusing the group of trying to carry out attacks and rearm.

Five Israeli soldiers have been killed by Palestinian terrorists, including both terror attacks and in combat, since the ceasefire, according to the IDF.

The initial phase of Trump’s plan foresaw Israel withdrawing to a Yellow Line that left Israeli troops in control of 53% of Gaza. Since then, the military has expanded its effective control to around two-thirds of the territory.

Israeli-backed Palestinian militias opposing Hamas use the Israeli-held zone to launch attacks into Hamas-controlled areas.

Gaza aid increases but falls short of humanitarian needs

Global hunger watchdog Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) says more than 1.2 million people still face acute hunger in Gaza despite a major scale-up of aid operations after the ceasefire.

In an August report, it cited data showing that an average of 227 trucks a day carried humanitarian and commercial supplies into Gaza from the ceasefire to the end of May - less than half the minimum 600 trucks stipulated in the Gaza plan.

The Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT), which controls access to Gaza, did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the figure cited in the IPC report.

Israel says around 600 trucks carrying humanitarian aid and commercial goods enter each day, that Gaza is getting enough goods to meet its needs, and that it is meeting its obligations.

Aid agencies say Israel is blocking essential items, including metal tent poles, engine oil and spare parts, from entering Gaza, on the grounds that Hamas could use them for military purposes.

Disarmament remains key obstacle in Trump Gaza plan

Trump said Hamas and other terror organizations had accepted a 15-point roadmap drawn up by the Board of Peace to give up their arms. Israeli forces would withdraw as Hamas disarmed. The ISF, working with a new Palestinian security force, would secure Gaza. Trump called it historic.

Hamas said it had agreed to hand over its weapons to be stored under the control of the US-backed Palestinian technocratic government. Though Hamas rejected the word ‘disarmament’, this marked a once-unimaginable position for the Iran-backed group.

But Israel, skeptical that Hamas will give up its arms, called the plan unacceptable and said it would not carry out any withdrawal until Hamas is fully disarmed.

Plans have taken shape, but it has yet to be assembled. There is a commander - US Major-General Jasper Jeffers - and Indonesia, Morocco, Kazakhstan, Albania, Kosovo, and Uganda have committed personnel.

Jeffers has said the long-term plan is for the ISF to use 20,000 troops and train 12,000 Palestinian police.

The technocratic Palestinian governing body, the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza, was appointed in January, led by Ali Shaath, who formerly served as a deputy minister in the Ramallah-based Palestinian Authority. It has yet to enter Gaza.

Gaza reconstruction remains far short of estimated needs

A year on, Palestinians are still scavenging in the rubble of wrecked buildings for materials to prop up tents and other shelters.

The Board of Peace unveiled a $2.45 billion plan in September to begin rebuilding Gaza.

That is a fraction of what is needed. The Board of Peace cited an EU and UN assessment released in April that estimated recovery and reconstruction needs at $71.4 billion over the next decade.

Gaza’s future becomes campaign issue ahead of Israeli election

While the Trump plan promises to encourage people to stay in Gaza, Israeli right-wing politicians have stepped up calls for the mass removal of Palestinians through “voluntary emigration”.

Defense Minister Israel Katz said last month there was "no real solution for Gaza in the end without this migration."

The defense ministry in 2025 established an office tasked with overseeing “voluntary emigration” from Gaza, after comments by Trump suggesting Gazans could be permanently displaced.

Trump later backed away from the idea, which faced ‌strong resistance from ⁠Arab states and was widely rejected internationally. Israeli officials have said there are no plans to move Gaza's population out by force.

Israel will hold a general election on October 27, the country's first since the October 7 massacre. Some leading opposition figures have supported Trump's plan.