As Netanyahu weighs his next coalition, Ofer Winter emerges as a key right-wing spoiler - analysis

Senior figures in the Opposition say that, according to the data available to them, there has still been no significant movement of voters from the Right into their camp, even as they assess that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could lose the election without the bloc necessarily securing a majority to form a government.

One senior figure estimated that Netanyahu would lose, but said it was not certain the Opposition could secure a majority to form a government. That is also the bloc's concern: that opposition to Netanyahu will not translate into voters moving over from the opposing political camp.

The most complicated battle over those votes is taking place around Ofer Winter. Political sources estimate that People of Israel is drawing more than two Knesset seats' worth of support originating from Likud, along with roughly another seat from Yisrael Beytenu.

These are assessments by those political sources regarding the origins of the party's support, not data from a publicly available poll.

According to the same political sources, some right-wing voters who had moved away from Netanyahu had previously shifted toward Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar and Avigdor Liberman's Yisrael Beytenu.

They assess that since Winter entered the race, those voters have been presented with another option on the Right that does not require returning to Likud. One source estimated that Winter and People of Israel currently have a unique potential to move votes between the political camps.

Likud is monitoring the phenomenon and, for now, is continuing to apply pressure on Winter.

"For now, we're going at him with full force," a Likud source said.

Asked what Likud's latest checks regarding Winter had found, the source said he could not elaborate on the results of the party's most recent assessments.

However, according to political sources familiar with the details, Netanyahu's circle has no consensus on that approach.

Those sources said that Likud figures had told them the attacks on People of Israel were a mistake, and that, in the view of those Likud figures, the right-wing camp had grown significantly since the party established itself in the race.

The political sources also said those Likud figures told them that, from their perspective, People of Israel would be a partner in the right-wing camp after the election.

According to the same political sources familiar with the details, Likud figures also told them that the data they have on the issue remains unclear.

Attacks continue on Winter, People of Israel

For the time being, the attacks on Winter are continuing, even though, according to those sources, there is no consensus in Netanyahu's circle over the move.

Sources in Yashar said the party is also monitoring Winter. Party officials assessed that if Winter's voters come to believe he will not cross the electoral threshold, between half a Knesset seat and 0.7% of a seat's worth of his supporters could move to Eisenkot.

That is an internal Yashar assessment.

Winter's appearance above the electoral threshold in Maariv's latest poll now makes the scenario that assessment was based on harder to realize.

According to political sources, part of Winter's support comes from right-wing voters who have moved away from Netanyahu and whom both Yashar and Yisrael Beytenu are seeking to attract. Another portion consists of voters Likud is seeking to win back.

Likud discussing coalition, gov't compositions for after elections 

Likud is already discussing the possible composition of the government after the election.

Gideon Sa'ar said in an appearance on Meet the Press that even if the bloc reaches 61 seats, he supports bringing additional parties into the government and expanding the coalition beyond the parties currently in the bloc.

Sa'ar's remarks are already raising the question of which potential partners outside the bloc could join such a government. From his perspective, even a 61-seat majority would not be a reason to settle for the existing composition.

Which parties Likud would seek to bring in, and whether those parties would be willing to join such a government, will become clear only after the election.

The issue of haredi military enlistment is also expected to accompany that political struggle.

Senior figures in the change bloc say opposition to exemptions from military service is one of the issues through which they hope to reach moderate right-wing voters.

The haredi parties, by contrast, are expected to make military enlistment legislation a central issue in any negotiations over forming a government.

For now, the change bloc has decided to postpone the question of its prime minister candidate until after the election.

Disagreements over the possible composition of the government and the identity of potential coalition partners have not disappeared, but with the remaining weeks of the campaign, figures in the bloc are trying to bring the discussion back to the numbers.

Senior figures in the change bloc say the situation has remained stuck for roughly a month. In their assessment, if there is significant movement of votes between the camps, it will come in the final weeks of the campaign.