Kenya enters October-December rains as Met warns of wetter conditions

Kenya has officially entered the October-December rainfall season, with the Kenya Meteorological Service forecasting wetter-than-normal conditions in several parts of the country.

The Meteorological Service has also released county-specific timelines for the onset of the rains, with some regions already experiencing rainfall while others are expected to receive the rains in the coming weeks.

Acting head of the Kenya Meteorological Service Authority Edward Muriuki said rainfall had already begun in parts of 24 counties, including areas of the Coast, western Kenya and the Rift Valley.

He said the rains would continue spreading to other parts of the country, with Turkana and Samburu expected to record the onset latest, in the third or fourth week of October.

Muriuki urged farmers to rely on detailed forecasts issued by county meteorological officials because the timing and intensity of rainfall would vary from one region to another.

“County-specific weekly and monthly forecasts are available from the offices of respective county directors of Meteorological Services,” Muriuki said.

Counties already receiving rains

The onset has been recorded in several counties across western Kenya, the Rift Valley and Nyanza.

They include Nandi, Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma, Siaya, Busia, Baringo, Nakuru, Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo Marakwet, West Pokot, Kisii, Nyamira, Kericho, Bomet, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori and Narok.

At the Coast, rainfall has also started in Mombasa, Kwale, Lamu and Kilifi, as well as parts of the Tana Delta.

When other regions will receive the rains

Parts of northeastern Kenya, including Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Isiolo, are expected to experience the onset during the first or second week of October.

Much of central Kenya and Ukambani is expected to receive the rains next week or the following week.

The areas include Nairobi, Kiambu, Murang’a, Kirinyaga, Nyeri, Nyandarua, Laikipia, Embu, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Machakos, Kitui and Makueni.

Kajiado, Taita Taveta and inland parts of Tana River are also expected to receive the rains during the same period.

Heavy rainfall expected in some areas

The Meteorological Service expects particularly heavy rainfall in parts of the Coast and northeastern regions.

The areas include Kwale, Mombasa, Kilifi, Lamu and Mandera, as well as parts of Taita Taveta, Tana River, Garissa and Wajir.

Other areas expected to receive above-average rainfall include Makueni, Kajiado, Machakos, Nairobi, Kiambu, Murang’a, Kirinyaga, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Meru, Isiolo, Nyandarua and Nyeri.

Parts of Marsabit, Laikipia, Nakuru and Narok are also expected to record above-average rainfall.

Benefits and risks for farmers

The wetter conditions could provide several benefits to farmers, including improved soil moisture, better conditions for land preparation and planting, regeneration of pasture and increased water availability for livestock.

However, the Met warned that excessive rainfall could also create challenges.

These include waterlogging, crop diseases, disruption of farm operations and difficulties transporting agricultural produce.

The agency has also warned of possible flooding and landslides, particularly in areas prone to such hazards.

Residents living in low-lying areas and near rivers have been advised to take the forecasts seriously and prepare for possible flooding.

El Niño and Indian Ocean Dipole

The October-December rainfall season is influenced by several climate systems, including El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which measures differences in sea-surface temperatures between the western and eastern tropical Indian Ocean.

The World Meteorological Organisation expects a positive IOD to develop between September and November alongside strengthening El Niño conditions.

However, Muriuki cautioned against treating El Niño as the only factor determining rainfall patterns.

“Rainfall is influenced by several climate systems, including El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole,” he said.

The Met said temperatures are also expected to remain warmer than average across the country.

When the rains will end

The October-December rains are expected to continue into January in many central, western and eastern counties.

In Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Isiolo, however, the season is expected to end during the first or second week of December.

Turkana and Samburu are expected to record poor to fair rainfall despite the broader forecast of wetter-than-normal conditions across much of the country.