BJP seeks to shore up Dalit support ahead of Uttar Pradesh assembly elections

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) wants its cadre in poll-bound Uttar Pradesh to ensure that the party’s hold over the substantial Dalit vote-bank– estimated to be about 21% of the state’s population -- is strengthened and there is no recurrence of the 2024 narrative that claimed it was seeking an absolute majority to change the Constitution and alter caste-based quotas, said people aware of the details.

The narrative is seen as the main cause of the party’s overall tally falling in both Uttar Pradesh and nationally in the last Lok Sabha polls.

The BJP’s social engineering formula of giving representation to various castes already includes the Dalits, but the party is now aggressively seeking to cement its ties with non-Jatav Dalits such as the Pasis, Khatiks, Dhobis, and Valmikis, among others.

The Jatav/Chamar section of Dalits is widely seen as a preserve of the Bahujan Samaj Party.

In the coming weeks, the party plans to organise meetings with groups from various communities and seek feedback on issues and concerns.

“The BJP has gained support from the scheduled caste communities post-2014, largely owing to the social welfare schemes of the government. They benefited from targeted schemes such as housing and cooking gas subsidies, and they were given political representation which made them vote for the BJP. The Jatavs, however, continued to support the BSP, because the party largely stood for identity politics,” said a senior BJP leader in the state who asked not to be named.

The leader said the BJP’s overtures, in addition to the BSP’s own decline, resulted in a perceptible shift in voter preference. He cites the pattern of vote share for both parties as an illustration.

“The BJP’s vote share in the Lok Sabha polls (in UP) has been increasing: in 2014 it was 42.6%; in 2019 it was 49%; and then in 2024 it came down to 41% but that was because of the opposition’s narrative. For the BSP the vote share has been on the decline: from 19.8% in 2014 it was 19.3% in 2019 and 9.5% in 2024. In the state elections too we see a similar pattern,” the leader said.

In the 2022 assembly polls the BJP’s vote share went up to 41% from 39.6% in 2017 but the number of seats it won fell from 312 to 255. The BSP’s vote share and seats declined from 22.23% and 19 to 12.8% and 1.

A second party leader said teams will be deputed across the state to highlight the schemes and other welfare measures from which the communities have benefitted.

“The party cadre will also seek feedback on issues that need to be addressed…but primarily stress how the double engine sarkar (BJP government at the centre and state) and its sarvajan kalyan (welfare of all) has changed the lives of the poor and the marginalised,” the second functionary said, also asking not to be named.

The second leader listed financial aid through scholarships, residential facilities for students, and skilling opportunities via the Pradhan Mantri Anusuchit Jaati Abhyuday Yojana as some of the key steps being taken for the social and economic empowerment of Dalits.

However, the battle for the Dalit votes will not be a bipolar contest between the BJP and the BSP. The Samajwadi Party, with its PDA or Pichada, Dalit aur Alpsankhyak (backward, Dalit and minority) outreach that worked for it in 2024 and the Bhim Army of Nagina MP, Chandrashekhar Azad are also formidable challengers.

The SP has indicated that it will give more seats to Dalits and has set up the Ambedkar Vahini, a group for better connect with the community. The Bhim Army’s Azad Samaj Party (Kanshi Ram) has decided to contest the polls alone hoping to consolidate its position as an alternative to the BSP.

The BJP believes it is likely to benefit from the split in the Dalit votebank.

“In 2022 the SP’s vote share and seat share went up from 2017, indicating that they too benefitted from the BSP losing the votes…” said the second functionary.

In 2022, the BJP won a total of 255 of the 403 seats and 69 of the 84 SC-reserved constituencies; in 2017 it won 312 seats and 63 of the total SC seats. The SP won 16 SC reserved seats in 2022 and 7 in 2017; its overall tally was 47 and 111.

The BSP won 19 seats in 2017 and 2 SC-reserved seats and in 2022, its tally fell to a single seat and none in the reserved seats.